On August 31, the great squabble of the Maidan workers will become a reality - in the spring, Ukraine will face re-elections of the Rada

An extraordinary meeting of the Verkhovna Rada is scheduled for August 31, where Petro Poroshenko proposes to adopt a new Constitution of Ukraine. However, a significant part of the ruling coalition is opposed to even the formal implementation of the Minsk agreements and will not vote for the adoption of a new version of the Basic Law. This meeting will mark the beginning of an open split in the coalition, which will officially collapse by the end of autumn.

This forecast was voiced by Ukrainian political scientist Kost Bondarenko at a press conference in Kyiv.

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“Changes to the Constitution will become a stumbling block for the coalition. Already many politicians, even from the Poroshenko faction, are actively criticizing changes to the Constitution. There is a growing wave of dissatisfaction with them. The most violent and radical politicians are starting to say that the Minsk agreements are a betrayal, and we need to leave the Minsk process, etc.

I think that Poroshenko, on the eve of the vote in the Verkhovna Rada for changes to the Constitution on August 31, will have a rather difficult time finding a common language with his political partners. It is possible that from August 31 the first serious cracks in the coalition will begin to appear, and in the fall it will begin to crumble. This will lead to the fact that in the current situation in the Rada it will be impossible to find a configuration that would satisfy all the forces and create balance in the country, and could give new stability to the parliament. By the end of autumn, it may reach a state of half-life, and the president will be confronted with the fact that the Rada can be dissolved. New parliamentary elections can be expected by spring.

Local elections today seem to lead to centripetal trends. “UDAR” and “Petro Poroshenko Bloc” created an association for the elections. There are rumors that a similar situation is with the Popular Front, which has lost its rating. If there is such a pro-government unification, then Ukraine will receive a new “Our Ukraine” or a new “Party of Regions”.

It is obvious that the technologists at Bankova are recreating the “Party of Regions” with new faces. Such a force may receive significant factions in city and regional councils, but this will be the beginning of the end of these factions since they will bear full responsibility for increasing tariffs, prices, etc., for the deterioration of the quality of life in the localities - because people are more often blamed for all troubles namely local authorities.

Yatsenyuk has already stated that there will be rotations in the Cabinet in the fall. The current situation in the coalition does not allow him to make such decisive statements. Now we can say with confidence that there will be one replacement - to the place of the Minister of Environment. Certainty on this issue is expected from Batkivshchyna, which at one time delegated the current Minister of Ecology Igor Shevchenko to the Cabinet of Ministers.

Energy Minister Demchishin, who is accused of failing the winter season, is in question. Infrastructure Minister Andrei Pivovarsky is also named among possible candidates for replacement. Yatsenyuk, of course, would like his creature to take this place. In its capacity they call Mr. Bourbak, who knows very well how to use this sphere for the benefit of his patron’s party.

There is often talk about the possible resignation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Klimkin, one of the most gray and inexpressive ministers in the history of Ukraine, who could replace the equally gray and inexpressive diplomat Sergeev at the UN.

They also can’t wait for Avakov to leave, who has gone on vacation, from which our politicians often do not return, like Lazarenko did in his time. But for now we can only talk about this hypothetically.

So these rotations are, in principle, quite possible, but in reality they mean little. In an amicable way, we need a new coalition format in order to assemble a new format of the Cabinet of Ministers. But the Constitution clearly defines that the coalition is created by factions, and not by individual deputies and groups, so it is impossible to assemble the parliamentary “Lego” otherwise without resorting to the services of the “Opposition Bloc,” which today does not want and cannot join the coalition. And without the “NF” and “BPP” the coalition cannot work.

For Poroshenko, it is important that the coalition remains in its current composition until the Constitution is considered in the second reading, which will require 300 votes, which is otherwise very difficult to obtain. Yuriy Lutsenko has already stated that Yatsenyuk should work at least until spring, since he is the prime minister responsible for preparing for winter in order to survive this winter, but I am very afraid that he will remain the only one who will survive this winter,” Bondarenko said.

“Poroshenko will celebrate Independence Day not with his own people, but with the German people. Obviously, in Germany the question will be raised about how Ukraine implements the Minsk agreements and the topic of changes to the Constitution, which, according to these agreements, should expand the powers of Donbass within Ukraine, ensure decentralization of power, etc. These issues will be at the top of the fall 2015 political agenda. I think that it will not even be the elections to local councils that will determine it, but these issues,” the expert added.