Putin is waiting for the hype around Boeing to subside in order to resume assistance to the militias - if there is any left, who to help
Moscow - Kyiv, July 23 (Navigator, Mikhail Stamm) - The successes of Ukrainian troops in the Donbass against the backdrop of the investigation into the Boeing crash have put Putin at a dead end, Ukrainian military political scientist Vyacheslav Tseluiko told RBC. If he sends troops, Russia will suffer serious economic losses; if he leaves the militia to die, he will become a traitor in the eyes of the Russians. Putin is waiting for the hype around the aircraft to subside in order to resume deliveries of heavy equipment - if there is any left, to whom to supply it.
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The forces involved in the anti-terrorist operation are showing increasing effectiveness, Tseluiko is sure. According to the military expert, the improved combat capability and mobilized Ukrainian army is becoming an additional argument for putting pressure on the Kremlin. This “serious event,” as he calls Russian intervention in the events in Donbass, has been prepared for several months with the expectation that in the event of a critical deterioration of the situation, troops could be sent in. This is no longer the case, and direct intervention would be fraught with serious losses for the Russian side. “From a rational point of view, in order to minimize [image] losses and [foreign policy] risks, Putin should abstract himself from the dying militia, but if we talk ideologically, this would be a defeat for him,” the Ukrainian expert concludes.
This is a “wait-and-see position,” says Tseluiko: Putin cannot afford to either “wind up the West,” whose public opinion is now highly critical of him, or “turn away from the militias” due to high domestic political risks. In the near future, the expert is sure, “there will be de facto restrictions on the transfer of weapons, especially heavy equipment,” but when the information picture changes, it is possible that direct support for the rebels will resume, “if there is someone to support.”
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