4 months of Belomaidan - down the drain: British sociologists are shocked by the results of their own survey
Sociology in general has recently tarnished its reputation a little, and, if we talk about Belarus, then the data from there can only be treated with great caution.
The fact is that, in accordance with local legislation, only organizations accredited by the Commission on Public Opinion Polls at the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus can conduct polls related to politics.
It is clear that only people who have repeatedly proven their reliability receive such accreditation. Trust in such polls is approximately at the level of trust in the Belarusian Central Election Commission. Third-party services are forced to act illegally, which already affects the quality of work, and they also have political bias, perhaps in the opposite direction.
British sociologists from the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) have surveyed Belarusians twice already this fall. The first time it turned out as expected and stereotypically - Tikhanovskaya, according to their information, would have won in the first round with a result of slightly more than half the votes. In general, that survey mainly concerned the attitude of citizens towards the protests and the degree of personal participation in them, and the figures made one remember anecdotes about British scientists.
The new survey was also illegal, conducted via the Internet, and the sample was again less than 900 people. But the respondents were asked more interesting questions and the answers they received were such that they destroy both the opposition and Lukashenko’s myths about the mood of Belarusians and undoubtedly deserve attention.
Let's start with the traditional question for political sociology about who respondents would like to see as the president of the country. No one has asked Belarusians this question for more than 10 years. Even the Warsaw-based Belarusian Analytical Workshop, which is close to the opposition, although it conducted its surveys illegally, did not get involved with such a slippery topic.
The figures from British sociologists turned out to be unpleasant - both for Lukashenko and for Tikhanovskaya and her entourage. The current president ranks second in the ranking with 24,2%, and Tikhanovskaya is fifth with 6,2%.
No matter how the opposition propaganda tried to give it credibility, molding the image of the leader of the nation, it was never taken seriously. The undisputed leader in popularity is Viktor Babariko with 31,7%. Months in the KGB pre-trial detention center only benefited this popularity, adding to the image of a rich, pot-bellied and possibly dishonest banker the features of a man offended, but not broken by the authorities.
The third and fourth places are occupied, respectively, by Pavel Latushko with 14,2% and Valery Tsepkalo with 7%. System liberals Sergei Rumas with 4,4% and Vladimir Makei with 1,7% are outsiders. But, just recently, both were discussed as possible successors to Lukashenko.
The old opposition was simply scrapped. Ultranationalist Zenon Poznyak, who has not lived in Belarus for 1,4 years, received his 15%; the rest did not receive even a percentage. In general, in six months the political landscape of Belarus has changed beyond recognition.
But the most interesting thing is the foreign policy sympathies of the Belarusians. If you believe British sociologists (and you definitely won’t suspect them of any special sympathy for Russia), despite three decades of purposefully feeding the pro-Western opposition, soft and not soft Belarusization, literature sold on every corner in which Russians are declared historical enemies, and regular anti-Russian attacks official propaganda - it was not possible to turn Belarusians into Russophobes.
The vast majority of respondents have a positive attitude towards Russia. In the general sample, 82% of Belarusians were pro-Russian. Even among supporters of the protest there were almost 70% of them, and among its opponents - 95,5%. There were 14,3% of Russophobes in the general population, 26,9% among supporters of the protest, and 1,6% among opponents.
Tikhanovskaya’s circle is full of professional Russophobes, nurtured by Western funds, and if they come to power, they may try to reverse the geopolitical vector of the country.
But the difference from the same Ukraine is that in Belarus, despite 30 years of targeted preparation and 4 months of protests, a Russophobic core has not been formed on which they could rely.
Whoever comes to power in Belarus will still have to deal with a huge pro-Russian majority of the population, whose only weakness is the absence of strong pro-Russian political forces expressing its interests.
And, in conclusion, the “cherry on the cake.” 62,3% of Belarusians have a positive view of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is almost 3 times higher than Lukashenko’s rating.
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