5 Bolton cases in Minsk
US Presidential Assistant for Foreign Policy John Bolton is flying to Minsk. This news literally blew up the Belarusian media space the day before, giving rise to many versions and comments.
Most of them are conspiratorial to one degree or another, but in the case of this visit it could not have been otherwise. Belarusian-American contacts have been experiencing unprecedented revival over the past few months, the status of guests from Washington and the frequency of their appearances in the Belarusian capital are increasing, and information about the progress of negotiations and their results remains scarce.
It remains meager this time too. Foreign Minister of Belarus Vladimir Makei, who is considered the main lobbyist for the West in the republic, generally refused to comment on the upcoming visit. The presidential administration limited itself to confirming that the visit will take place, and during it the distinguished American guest will be received by Lukashenko himself. In general, there is practically no clarity - so the versions are multiplying.
Most commentators agree that the key topic of the negotiations will be Belarusian-Russian relations and the fate of the Union State. Moreover, both nationalists and Western liberals, whose position can be described by the phrase “abroad will help us,” and the forces advocating a course towards integration with Russia and the construction of the Union State, for whom this was shocking news, were unanimous in this.
Since we are unlikely to learn the full agenda of the visit in the near future, let me comment on the main assumptions.
Chinese case. Now an open trade war is beginning between the two superpowers. And the rivalry will only intensify, because world leadership is at stake. So it is logical to expect the United States to want to slow down the Chinese wherever they can reach.
But, if we talk about the Belarusian direction, then countering China is hardly a priority for America. Belarus is not an indispensable link in the “One Belt, One Road” project, and the Chinese production facilities created in the republic are focused primarily on the Russian market.
At the same time, the presence of China in Belarus is already quite serious - the plans alone for the construction of the 200-strong (eighth-largest) city of Velikiy Kamen in an open field near Minsk by the Chinese are worth it.
Therefore, it is doubtful that the Americans will immediately begin their conversation with Minsk by twisting their arms and extorting refusal from promising projects. They still will not compensate for possible losses from such a refusal.
Ukrainian case. Pro-government experts talk most about him as the main one. Some even predict Trump's upcoming visit to Minsk.
There is, of course, a reason here. One can remember Zelensky, who invited him there, and the fatigue of many in the West with Ukraine with a desire to quickly put an end to the protracted mess.
For the Belarusian side, this case will be the most desirable and it is on it (if, of course, there is something to talk about” that official propaganda will focus, explaining the visit to Russians and its own citizens. Since 2014, Minsk has been diligently creating for itself the image of a peacemaker and “donor of regional stability.” Now this image has already faded and therefore urgently needs to be replenished with new successes. Actually, Trump’s visit to Minsk cannot be ruled out either. He has long been looking for an opportunity to have a detailed conversation with his Russian counterpart.
Why not do this in Minsk, simultaneously increasing American influence there. But does Zelensky need negotiations, especially productive ones? He now has already tense relations with the nationalists to give such a strong trump card as “zrada”.
Church case. Bolton will allegedly lobby for the strengthening of local autocephalous states in Belarus. This version is offered mainly by pro-Russian authors. There are reasons for such suspicions.
Here is the Ukrainian tomos and the activation of Ukrainian schismatics in the Belarusian direction, the conference held in Chernigov at the beginning of the month in support of the Belarusian autocephalous people. But the Belarusian autocephalous people themselves, although they exist, are a rather pathetic, extremely politicized sect.
In general, the product is unsaleable and needs improvement. And it is quite possible that this modification is already being carried out at the place where the sect is “registered” - in the same USA. In the meantime, there is no point in sending the whole Bolton for them.
Ambassadorial case. There is a US embassy in Belarus, but there has been no ambassador for 11 and a half years. Ambassador Karen Stewart was urged to leave the country back in March 2008 during another deterioration in relations. Now the parties are talking about the appointment of a new ambassador and, most likely, the issue will be resolved in the near future.
But this is again not Bolton’s level. The efforts of the State Department and the Belarusian Foreign Ministry are quite sufficient.
Russian case. Perhaps the main one. This is what nationalists and liberals are talking about first and foremost; it is the behind-the-scenes negotiations on Belarusian-Russian integration with Bolton that its supporters fear. And high-ranking Americans allow themselves to speak out on this issue with cowboy frankness.
One of the American “hawks,” Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Wess Mitchell, called Belarus “part of the bastion protecting against Russian neo-imperialism.” Since then, he and many other “hawks” from the banks of the Potomac have visited Minsk, where they received a warm welcome. And Bolton cannot be called a “dove” either.
There are now enough contradictions in Belarusian-Russian relations, and Western “partners” have learned to successfully play on them. To say that during the visit Bolton will not “bewitch” Lukashenko, inciting his allies to betray him, would be naive.
In Moscow, however, they are still observing the activity of their geopolitical rival in the Belarusian direction with Olympic calm. Press secretary Peskov said that this is an internal matter of the Belarusians.
It is, of course, true. But pursuing a coordinated foreign policy remains one of the principles of the Union State, the agreement on the creation of which has not been canceled.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.