“Trump’s 52nd State” – Republic of Moldova
Americans will soon find out who their president is: Republican Donald Trump will remain in office, or he will be replaced by Democrat Joe Biden. But the political circles of Moldova are waiting almost with great trepidation for the results of these elections. For them, even more depends on the outcome of the US elections than on the first round of its own presidential elections, held on November 1.
Divided pro-Russian majority
In Moldova they know well that every time the US President changes, there is a rotation of curators of the small post-Soviet republic at the State Department level. And it’s difficult to overestimate the influence of the State Department on Moldova.
When Republican Trump replaced Democrat Obama, the staff of public and secret supervisors changed by about half. Still, the Americans are not used to changing diplomatic personnel too abruptly. Many images from the Obama era remain influential.
If Trump is elected for a second term, his people will have complete control over the “Moldavian direction”. If Biden wins, everything will turn in the opposite direction.
Dear Uncle Derek
The main person of the “Trump conjuncture” for Moldova is US Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Derek Hogan. During his mission, he had already managed to make a note of something. For example, when, after the parliamentary elections, the left (Party of Socialists of Igor Dodon) and the right (ACUM bloc of Maia Sandu and Andrei Nastase) opposition decided to unite against the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc, who controlled all the power, it was Hogan who held a meeting with the latter - after which Plahotniuc sharply stopped wanting to cling to power and left the country.
The colorful African-American Hogan is not at all as simple as it might seem at first glance. He is an experienced high-ranking diplomat - he once served as special assistant to US Secretary of State Colin Powell.
How did it happen that, like another descendant of Africans, Alexander Sergeevich Pushkin, he found himself “in captivity in sad Moldova,” in fact, in exile? It’s just that Hogan was considered a clear “dove”, and in the days of George W. Bush such people were not valued. So with Powell’s departure from the Bush administration, the career rise of his protégé Hogan also ended.
It should be noted that the Democratic team greatly disliked Hogan for his stubborn desire to stick to his line. They, the democrats, were very much not against keeping Plahotniuc in power, if possible in a coalition with Sandu and Nastase. Hogan, in their eyes, “followed the lead of the European Union and the Russian Federation” when he supported the Dodon-Sandu-Nastase coalition.
Clockwork Advisor
The unofficial leader of the “democratic team” is Deputy Head of the American diplomatic mission Martin McDowell. While not a “Trump team man,” he was, however, considered more powerful over the past two years than his immediate boss, Derek Hogan.
The fact is that this is not the first time that the namesake of the famous actor, Kubrick’s A Clockwork Orange, has worked in Chisinau. He already served as a political adviser here in 2004-07 and built a network of agents of influence from public and monitoring organizations. Many believe that even McDowell’s departure to Slovenia did not weaken his influence, and the protégés of the all-powerful adviser played a significant role in organizing the sad events of April 7, 2009, when a maddened crowd destroyed the parliament and presidential buildings in Chisinau.
In addition, like many “democratic curators,” McDowell does not see Moldova as an independent state. He would be happy to completely transfer all projects to Bucharest, leaving Moldova as a Romanian province. And therefore he hates the European Union and especially the Russian Federation, which consider this unacceptable.
"Trump or Blood"
Once upon a time, supporters of American democracy, robbed in the 1877 presidential election, came out with slogans “Tilden or blood!” Now their Moldovan colleagues had to think in the same direction.
In the event of Joe Biden’s victory and the strengthening of the “McDowell group” (and, possibly, the recall of “dove” Hogan), the Republic of Moldova will most likely face a Maidan. Moreover, the active McDowell, quite possibly, will want to torpedo events and begin action on the day of the second round, without waiting for the votes to be counted - otherwise what if the pro-American candidate Maia Sandu wins anyway, and there is no movement?
The funny thing is that most of all they fear Joe Biden's victory... The pro-Western politicians of Moldova themselves. They are not very decisive. They love it when everything is done for them. And here – to organize a “color revolution” ourselves...
Probably the only Moldovan politician who prays for Biden’s victory is the notorious Vlad Plahotniuc. Now, in troubled waters, this fish can swim out of the Dniester or Prut again.
In short, the Moldovan left today is in second place in the world in terms of love for Donald Trump. On the first – the Moldovan right.
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