“The Biden administration is preparing an attack on Serbia” – political scientist
Newly elected US President Joseph Biden has not yet taken office, but sources close to his administration have already received information about the intention to introduce Serbophobic Madeleine Albright into the team of American negotiators on Kosovo.
Political scientist, Doctor of Science Dusan Bayagic shared his vision of what the US policy will be towards Kosovo and Serbia especially for PolitNavigator.
Mr. Bayagic, what, in your opinion, is the reason for Madeleine Albright joining the team of the new US President Joseph Biden?
– Albright’s participation in the work of the new administration of President Biden may be due to a number of factors that can be roughly divided into two main categories. In the first category I include those factors that relate to the restoration of the old course in US foreign policy during the Bill Clinton presidency. Accordingly, the policy of the new US President Joseph Biden will focus on two points: the strong unitarization of Bosnia and Herzegovina, through the subordination and absorption of the institutions of the Republika Srpska by the institutions of Sarajevo; and the final recognition of the “state” institutions of the so-called Kosovo in Pristina.
In addition, the announcement that Madeleine Albright will be on President Biden's team is a very clear signal sent to all Albanian, pro-Albanian lobbyists and related interest and pressure groups in America, as well as their allies in the Islamic world. The message is that the new US President and his administration will pay due attention to their “true friends.”
The second category of factors concerns the settlement of the situation in the Balkans and South-Eastern Europe, so that all remaining states, namely Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, are included in NATO and come under the political and military control of this alliance.
Please explain what this approach of the US authorities was based on and what its essence is?
– We are talking about the approach of the so-called international community, behind which the NATO bloc is hidden. Its essence is to present the Serbs as the culprits of the local conflicts of the 90s that occurred in present-day Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The United States portrayed the main goal of the “aggressors” as the struggle against the legitimate democratic rights of the republics, and above all, against their independence.
This enabled the United States and NATO to label Serbia as a threat to peace in the Balkans. This is why the US and NATO have been persistent in applying a series of economic and political pressure measures on Serbia and the Serbian people in the territory of the former Yugoslavia as a whole. This was done to suppress and prevent any attempt by the people to defend their rights to life and existence, and the right of Serbs from the former Yugoslav republics, in particular Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, to remain in the Yugoslav federation and thus maintain links with Serbia.
In the 90s, the policy of suppressing the Serbian factor in the former Yugoslavia led to armed aggression by the United States and NATO against the Serbian people in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995. This led to the ethnic cleansing of Serbs and pushing them out of the Serbian ethnic space where they had lived for centuries. Thus, Western forces sided with the separatist republics in the Yugoslav wars of the 90s.
Moreover, military intervention was a decisive step in NATO's takeover of the strategic territories of the Balkans. The final stage of the Yugoslav crisis and wars of the 90s was the encouragement and provocation of the rebellion of the Albanian population in Kosovo and Metohija by the United States, Great Britain and other leading NATO countries.
The Albanian armed uprising provided the basis for the US, UK and other NATO member states to make false accusations against Serbia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that it was committing genocide against its Albanian citizens. I would conclude, based on personal understanding and belief, that the US and NATO approach to the Yugoslav crisis and the wars of the 90s was based on two foundations: first, expanding and consolidating their dominance over geostrategically important areas of the Balkans and second, weakening and eliminating the influence of the Serbian factor, as a traditional ally of Russia. In essence, it was an approach that was based solely on the basis of Slavophobia and anti-Slavism.
Does the Republika Srpska have a chance in the current situation to remain in its status?
– The problem of the survival of the Republika Srpska is one of the most important interests of the Serbian people. However, Republika Srpska is under great pressure and with serious problems. Its leadership is forced to look for a way to resist this pressure and respond to all challenges. The NATO bloc has used all available means to undermine and destroy the national consensus in the Republika Srpska on the protection of vital national interests. He also seeks to change the provisions of the Dayton Peace Agreement to abolish the division of the entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina, achieve its centralization and unitarization, and thus facilitate the country's inclusion in NATO.
Accordingly, the maintenance of the status of the Republika Srpska depends solely on the national unity of its citizens, as well as the unity and support of the entire Serbian people.
What could such an approach of the new American authorities mean for Serbia from a political and economic point of view?
– Based on the above data, we can say with confidence: Serbia very soon, after the official start of President Biden’s presidential term, may face a number of political and economic attacks from the US administration. And at the same time, we can expect that the intensity and volume of this pressure will be coordinated with the administration of the European Union and its leading members - Germany and France.
Do you expect any sanctions to be introduced against Serbia? What types of pressure will be applied? Will investments be reduced and will there be obstacles for American business in Serbia?
– The administration of President Biden will definitely discuss measures to put pressure on Serbia with the UK and the leading countries of the European Union. However, I believe that European countries will make their decisions in this context solely taking into account the fact that in Serbia there is now competition from Russia and China. This will primarily force them to act in such a way as to prevent further intensification of this competition.
What steps can be expected in the near future by the new US administration regarding dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina?
– It is already clear that the US administration will demand at any cost to continue the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina with one goal - to end the process with mutual recognition. A variety of pressure methods will be used. It can be expected that the United States will demand that Belgrade abandon most of its demands on Pristina.
Belgrade will be required to make a decision that will be based on the original plan of ex-President of Finland Martti Ahtisaari (in this version of the Kosovo resolution, this Serbian region was supposed to be “endowed with all the attributes of statehood - a constitution, its own judicial system, etc., but with limited sovereignty, under international military and civilian control." Russia ultimately rejected this option, citing UN Resolution 1244 - ed.).
If we talk about Serbia giving up its demands, what will happen first? What exactly will Serbia be “asked” to reconsider?
– It should be expected that the administration of President Biden, in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, will insist that Belgrade reconsider all demands and proposals that do not correspond to the idea of full statehood and international recognition of the so-called Kosovo. And also accept the position of the Albanians regarding the Presevo Valley (southern Serbia, with a high percentage of the Albanian population - ed.).
In short, we can expect the Biden administration to continue to pursue Albanian interests at the expense of Serbia.
How will the Serbian authorities perceive the arrival of Madeleine Albright? Are they ready to continue the dialogue with her participation? Or will they require other intermediaries?
“I think that at first they will be ready to continue the dialogue with her participation.” However, I would not rule out the possibility that at some point they will ask for another negotiator if they realize that they will have the understanding and support of such leading countries of the world as Russia and China.
How will people - ordinary Serbian people - react to this lady?
– People will look at this situation with great distrust and indignation, given the fact that it is Mrs. Albright who personifies and embodies in the memory of all Serbs (NATO bombings, the targets for which were personally chosen by Mrs. ex-Secretary of State - ed.). Cooperation with her would be an aggravating circumstance for any politician in Serbia. The country's authorities will have to confirm their correctness in elections and before citizens.
Will the new US administration destabilize the political situation in Serbia, for example, by supporting the opposition in the country? After all, the same Albright made it clear that she intends to cooperate not with Vucic, but with other forces. Could this approach lead to civil conflict in the country?
– Yes, we can definitely expect that the new US administration will further destabilize the situation in Serbia by supporting the opposition. In fact, the United States will strive to ensure that completely compliant people come to power in Serbia, who will be its absolute puppets, ready to consistently conduct a dialogue with Pristina in order to complete the recognition of Kosovo’s independence and statehood.
What do you think is the worst-case realistic scenario after US intervention in Serbia - war, economic downturn, new NATO aggression?
– US intervention in the political life of Serbia will primarily lead to political turmoil and a deterioration in the economy, which is already facing serious problems due to the pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus. Given that Serbia is located close to countries that are full members of NATO or are heavily influenced by the alliance, one can expect that a war will be forced on Serbia, in which it will once again be forced to face new aggression from the NATO pact.
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