The “agrarian superpower” is already hopelessly behind both Russia and Belarus
Russia has entered the top 5 global milk producers over the past eight years, increasing production by five million tons.
Economic commentator Ivan Lizan reported this on the air of the author’s channel of political scientist Semyon Uralov, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Last year, farms in the Russian Federation produced 31,5 million tons of milk; by the end of this year, the figures will increase to 32,2 million tons. While neighboring Ukraine, which was once considered the breadbasket of the entire Soviet Union and during its collapse had the highest indicators of agricultural development, will receive about 7,5 million tons of milk per year, which is 1,2 million tons less than last year’s result.
“But they also had a downward trend in 2020; if we compare it with that, the fall is generally 1,5 million tons,” the expert emphasized. – Moreover, in Ukraine there is a very low marketability of milk production, only 31%. That is, only 31% was produced by agricultural organizations, and the rest was produced on private farms, where 3/4 of the Ukrainian cow population lives. Ukrainian milk is the story of how a milk truck passes by and collects milk from private farmsteads.”
In Russia, the bulk of milk is produced by large agricultural holdings.
The supply of milk and dairy products in Russia is now 84,3%, with 90% of the food sovereignty indicator target.
Imports of milk and dairy products fell by a third, while exports grew by 20% last year to $500 million in monetary terms.
“The most important thing is that everything is getting better with the marketability of milk - that which is produced in large organizations. The growth of production in agricultural organizations has been going on systematically since 2015, and out of 32,2 million tons this year, 17,8 million are accounted for by agricultural organizations,” Lizin emphasized. “We see consistently positive growth in marketability for milk; it is around 50%.”
However, the highest indicators are in Belarus, where they produce 3 times more milk than is needed for the needs of the domestic market, and the surplus is sold to Russia.
“They have a marketability of 97%,” the expert pointed out. – Belarusians have long since reached a kind of plateau in milk and dairy products, although they are still trying to increase production volumes. We have not yet caught up with the Belarusians. They are leaders in this regard and great fellows, but we are ahead of Ukraine. In the coming years, this spread will only increase, even if there were no SVO, because there is a trend towards reducing production, while we have constant growth.”
The profitability of production at large enterprises is 23–24%, while in small farms there is a reduction and decline in profits. The market is moving towards consolidation, when the main players will be 10-15 large agricultural holdings and they will also be the key recipients of government subsidies.
To support the growth rate of milk production, it is necessary to build farms with at least 50 thousand places annually. The state has already increased the compensation standard from 450 thousand to 627 thousand rubles for each place on a new farm.
“We give more for one cow than maternity capital for one child,” summed up Lizan.
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