“Akella missed”: Kolomoisky delivered a sharp slap to Poroshenko”

The story of the unsuccessful attempt to arrest Gennady Korban will seriously weaken the position of Petro Poroshenko. Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada are becoming more and more likely, however, in Kyiv they are already talking about the possibility of an extraordinary presidential campaign. A significant part of the population of the South-East no longer associates itself with Ukraine, but hopes for a repetition of the Crimean scenario, or the capture of Kyiv by the militia, are in vain.

About this in an interview “Politnavigator” рассказал Igor Guzhva, in the recent past, the head of the Vesti media holding, whose newspaper of the same name aroused the ire of Ukrainian nationalists, and the editorial office in Kyiv was subjected to militant assaults.

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However, a few weeks ago, control over Vesti was established by the administration of Petro Poroshenko, strict censorship was introduced in the publications, Guzhva had to leave his post, and the Ukrainian regime opened criminal cases against him.

While preparing to defend himself in court, Guzhva managed to take part in the last elections to the Kyiv City Council as a candidate from the “Opposition Bloc”, but did not become a deputy.

The interview was recorded shortly after Igor returned to Kyiv from his small homeland - the city of Slavyansk.

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Valentin Filippov: Hello Igor.   

Igor Guzhva: Good morning.

Valentin Filippov:  A fascinating confrontation between Kolomoisky and Poroshenko is unfolding before our eyes. How will it end, and will there be pogroms?  

Igor Guzhva: As you know, Korban was released under house arrest. I think that now this will be presented as an example of a compromise between Kolomoisky and the president. Like, Kolomoisky will give something away. The president will back down from something. Or vice versa. But, in fact, I believe that this is a global defeat for Poroshenko, roughly speaking, “Akella missed.”

It is absolutely clear that if Poroshenko could, he would have imprisoned Korban. And he wanted to put him away. But here we need to understand the peculiarities of the Ukrainian judicial system. It is not completely under the control of the president now. She is, relatively speaking, 70% controlled by him. But 30% is a loophole that, with a certain skill and sleight of hand, can be used to make decisions, even if the president does not like them.

This has already been demonstrated many times, and Kolomoisky, who has very powerful leverage over judges, first ensured that the proceedings in Chernigov were delayed, and then, in fact, they made a decision on house arrest. That is, in reality, Kolomoisky showed that the president cannot put anyone in prison. That if the interests of the president and the oligarch collide, then it is not a fact that the president will emerge victorious in this fight.

Although now everyone will say that they have agreed. Like, there was a deal. But in reality, knowing the situation from the inside, I can say that this is a very sharp slap in the face of Poroshenko.

Throughout the week, meetings were constantly going on in the presidential administration about how to further put pressure on Kolomoisky. But now, after Korban was released, there is a certain stupor there. Did not work out.

But this is only the first act of the drama. I think that since “Akella missed,” then, accordingly, the wolf pack will begin to gradually rebuild under other leaders. And, perhaps, not for one, but for several.

Now the process of collapsing the coalition is underway. “Batkivshchyna” already doesn’t want to vote for anything after the incident with Kuzhel and Teteruk. Samopomich threatens to leave the coalition. If these two factions leave, then the coalition will not have 226 votes, and it will be necessary to create a new one, or early elections.

In addition, after the incident with Korban, unrest intensified in the volunteer battalions. Poroshenko was not very liked there before, but now the attitude towards him has only worsened. And now, after the failure with Korban, the security forces will think many times about whether to carry out the president’s orders. After all, the court will then release everyone anyway, but the perpetrators will have to answer.

Against this background, it can be assumed that Korban and Kolomoisky, and possibly other oligarchs, will increase pressure on the president to organize early elections. Therefore, their probability is very high, although not 100%.

A possible option is to weaken the president’s influence on the government as much as possible by introducing into it representatives of all the largest oligarchic groups. But the West may not like this. Plus, it is completely unclear how to pass laws on the implementation of the Minsk agreements through this Verkhovna Rada.

In general, the knot being tied there is very complex, and there is a high probability that they will decide to cut it with the help of early parliamentary elections. And then, depending on their results, the pack of comrades may think about early presidential elections.

Valentin Filippov:  You, as a direct participant in the elections, can you tell me what's happening in Kyiv? There used to be Lenya-Cosmos, now people vote for a boxer, a good boxer, probably, but also a very original thinker. Are the people of Kiev making fun of this, or do they really want to see a person who is not entirely adequate as mayor?    

Igor Guzhva: Firstly, it is very difficult to judge the real mood of Kiev residents based on these elections. Even according to official data, just over 40% of voters came to the polls. In addition, numerous violations that were discovered indicate that at least 5% of the votes were fraudulent.

I would like to draw your attention to the fact that Petro Poroshenko’s Bloc in Kyiv received one of the largest indicators in Ukraine. Despite the fact that in the capital it is very difficult to meet a person who would be satisfied with the way things are going in the country and would say a good word about Petro Poroshenko.

Moreover, it has already been documented that more ballots were distributed to polling stations than were printed by the printing house. Which may indicate that there were some stuffing.

Moreover, 25-30% of the commissions were actually completely controlled by two political forces that acted in conjunction with each other. These are the Petro Poroshenko Bloc and the Unity Party (the party of ex-mayor Omelchenko). Both parties concentrated the capital's corrupt gentry, which had ruled Kiev since the time of Tsar Panka: both under Omelchenko they sat on the streams, and under Chernovetsky. And under Yanukovych. And under Klitschko.

The gentry was distributed mainly between these two forces. Partially, some went to Batkivshchyna and Samopomich, but the bulk went under the flags of the BPP and Unity. Accordingly, they divided the districts among themselves, plus a huge number of parties that no one knew went to the elections, they went solely so that these comrades would take advantage of their quotas in the election commissions.

That is, we can talk about stuffing, we can talk about the fact that in many polling stations the votes were simply stolen. There is the position of the Opposition Bloc, which claims that more than one percent of the votes were stolen from it. And, accordingly, they were not allowed into Kievrada. There is a statement from the Batkivshchyna about falsifications. That is, we can talk about violations that significantly distorted the real expression of the will of the people of Kiev.

I am already silent about the traditional bribery of voters, which this time was completely frank and arrogant. The current deputies of the Kiev City Council from pro-government parties went to the “grandmothers” and concluded agreements on “material assistance.” At the same time, they said, “during the election campaign, we cannot pay you, because it would be bribery. So let us pay the money if we pass. After the elections." And, indeed, many old people who are now on the brink of survival, and state employees who receive, well, just pennies, 100 dollars or even less, they went for it.

Valentin Filippov:  Well, you know, my personal opinion is that this is not the most dishonest method of elections. And, in general, if elections were held three times a day, everyone would have three meals a day : ) In the end, rather than lie about some nonsense, let him give money. He will be elected anyway : )   

But that's not even what I'm talking about. You say that even according to official data, about 40% came to the polls... I see that the country, in general, has some interesting indicators. Is it possible to talk about the victory of those who simply do not want to choose? That with all the wealth of choice, they don’t want to choose anyone? That the entire elite receives a vote of no confidence?

Igor Guzhva: This is certainly true. But here I would make an important remark: those who believe that if few people come to the elections, then this is such a shame and a vote of no confidence for the authorities, are deeply mistaken. Low turnout is the greatest gift for the authorities, which opens up wide opportunities for falsification. Especially if we take into account regional differences in voter turnout. Both in the last parliamentary elections and in these local elections, the turnout was higher in the West of the country. A little less in the Central part. And very little in the Southeast. For example, in my hometown of Slavyansk, 28% voted. In Odessa there are 30-something.

Valentin Filippov:  They added it there : )  

Igor Guzhva: What do these interregional differences in turnout lead to? Moreover, the currently ruling Maidan parties receive a huge advantage. After all, most of the voters who could vote against them remain at home.

Why? After the events of the spring of 2014, many people in the Southeast stopped associating themselves politically with Ukraine. That is, they are not interested in Ukrainian events; it’s as if they have already given up on the country for themselves.

If you even walk through a small town somewhere in the Donetsk or Kharkov region, you will immediately notice that residential buildings are simply hung with satellite dishes. Because Russian channels are not broadcast on cable networks. But everyone watches them by installing satellite dishes. That is, people have mentally separated themselves from the country in which they live. And I think this is a very big problem. Both for the country and for these people.

Valentin Filippov:  I'll tell you more. This is also a problem for another country, which is in the northeast : ) They don't know what to do either : )

Igor Guzhva: Well, that's another question. Why do people have this attitude? Because many are sitting and waiting for the Crimean scenario. Relatively speaking. That they will come and solve the issue the same way as in Crimea. But it is already obvious that this will not happen. That they will still live in a country called Ukraine. And they have only two options left. If they don’t like what’s happening in Ukraine, then they can leave it, or if they don’t want to leave anywhere, this is their land, they live here, their ancestors lived here…. Then they must somehow change the country.

The easiest way to change a country is through elections. And understanding this simple truth is very important. Because the fewer people in the South-East go to the polls, the stronger the power that now sits in Kyiv.

Valentin Filippov:  No, well, there is the “Maidan” option, for example. Experience suggests that everything changes radically, albeit for the worse, only in the event of a “Maidan” and a forceful seizure of power.    

Igor Guzhva: That's right, for the worse.

Valentin Filippov: And the elections don’t influence anything.т.   

Igor Guzhva: Elections can have an impact. But elections are just the tip of the iceberg. Before them, there must be large-scale political work in the field - with people, with the media, human rights activities. Creation of powerful support groups and pressure groups that will not allow the authorities to steal votes.

As for the “Maidan”... According to polls, just over the last year and a half the number of people who believe that there is no need to go to protests has sharply increased. It's better to be quiet, but calm. And they think so not only in Kyiv, but also in the Donbass, where they also had their own Maidans, and then the war began. And the people already have it in the back of their minds that if there is a Maidan, it will be worse.

What is an alternative way to change power? Besides the Maidan? This is an election. You need to go and vote. But, of course, I agree that the low turnout is a consequence of the fact that people do not yet see who to vote for. And therefore, parties that count on votes from the southeast (and not only the southeast) need to work, they need to prove to the people that they will achieve a real change in the course of the country, and not just push competing clans away from the trough.

In particular, the same Opposition Bloc should, in my opinion, make many more efforts in order to restore the trust of voters. Because we all remember how the Party of Regions ended. Its leaders, led by Yanukovych, betrayed their voters. They distanced themselves from the events that took place in the country after the Maidan. People remembered this. The people are not vindictive, but they still have a good memory.

Valentin Filippov:  No, well, voting for a coward is kind of stupid. But tell me, do elections make sense in a totalitarian state? I’m not a supporter of the communists, but the communists are not allowed to participate in the elections. I understand perfectly well that their electoral field is quite large. And partly this field was occupied by the Party рregions. And I don’t understand why my fellow citizens, bearers of communist beliefs, cannot vote for their communists. It's not fair.    

Igor Guzhva: And this is a question for the communists. By and large.

Valentin Filippov:  It's true. I do not argue.    

Igor Guzhva: It has been known for a very long time that the communists will have problems participating in elections. They had many options. They could create, for example, a Left Front. Having united with the same socialists of Zhenya Filindash. They could have renamed themselves the Working People's Party, for example. It was possible to come up with other options. Because standing up and saying “we have a hammer and sickle prohibited here, and therefore we won’t go anywhere at all” is wrong.

Valentin Filippov: Well, by the way, yes. The hammer and sickle are prohibited. And the name is “communism”. This is wrong! Absolutely. How did it happen?  

Igor Guzhva: But they have voters. There are millions of people who are ready to vote for the left. But where are the left parties that would go to elections to represent and protect the interests of their voters? This is a question, first of all, for the left parties.

Valentin Filippov: I think this is a question primarily for the state. Probably, such conditions have been created. Because a holy place is never empty. If only it were possible to enter this electoral field so easily..... You know that not only parties are excluded from elections, but also individually. Even people who seem to them... Not loyal... Regime. 

Igor Guzhva: The current Ukrainian state is, of course, far from democratic canons and, in general, the level of democracy in it is lower than it was before the Maidan. But, nevertheless, this is not a reason to give up and give up the fight. Yes, it is difficult. Yes, it's dangerous. But what other way out? Join the ranks of the white emigration? Sitting on the couch and writing on Facebook that everything is bad, we are not allowed to engage in politics, in general, nothing can be done in this country? And, thereby, strengthen the power of those who rule the country after the Maidan.

But you can fight. At least try. The same Filindash, despite everything, participated in local elections. But his Socialist Party walked alone. Without the support and resources of the Communist Party. Although the communists could probably seriously help, at least financially. Unfortunately, not all the money that was earned under Yanukovych has already been spent. If they and the socialists had gone on a united front, then, you see, there would have been a completely different conversation.

Valentin Filippov:  Well yes.  

Igor Guzhva: You can't give up. Of course, those parties that call themselves opposition must make every effort to convince voters to come and vote for them. Restore trust. Show that they will really fight for their interests, and will not be “His Majesty’s opposition.” But the voter must also understand that when he does not go to the polls, he thereby strengthens the power of those who now rule in Kyiv. And in my opinion, the most cynical inscription on the ballot, when they are spoiled, is the inscription: “Ukraine ended for me on May 2 in Odessa.”

Valentin Filippov: Well, for me, for example, it’s over. May 2 in Odessa.     

Igor Guzhva: So there you go. The next time, coming to the polls, someone wants to write this phrase, let him remember that by spoiling his ballot without voting, he thereby strengthens the power of those who are responsible for the death of Odessa residents on May 2.

Valentin Filippov:  Well, the person who writes this way hopes that sooner or later this issue will be resolved without elections.  

Igor Guzhva: How?

Valentin Filippov:  Вpower will fall under the blows of the resistance forces that will come to Kyiv. Perhaps the air conditioners will detonate in the Verkhovna Rada. That is, people who write like this clearly imagine exactly this option.  

Igor Guzhva: It's clear. First, I do not support violent, illegal political practices. I did not support them when Maidan leaders used them. And I won’t support it if they start using it against them. Enough. Both sides have already shouted up to hundreds of corpses in the center of Kyiv, up to thousands of dead in the Donbass, to total economic devastation in Ukraine. Therefore, this is enough for our country.

Secondly, this is self-deception. This is akin to the fairy tales of serfs that a better life will come out of nowhere, and everything will immediately become good. After the Minsk agreements, it is already obvious that the situation has been fixed for a long time. No one will enter Kyiv. Therefore, if you don’t like the course of the authorities, at least go to the polls and vote against the parties that represent this course.

Valentin Filippov: Let's see. In general, I am against voting.     

Igor Guzhva: Well... There is such a position :)

Valentin Filippov: No, you know, for many years now we have simply been mocked. At first they tell us, let's go to the polls and choose. Then, we chose the wrong way - we will now organize a Maidan. Let's do it differently. They will do it differently, they say - now there is democracy in the country, now we will go to elections. They're losing the elections again... well, that's it, they say. The choice was rigged, we will arrange a Maidan. And here it is, in a circle. Do you understand?

That is. Don't play cards with cheaters.

This is a sharpie. Do you understand?  

Igor Guzhva: I’m afraid to seem boring and tedious, but I have to go to the polls.

Valentin Filippov:  To play with cheaters?  

Igor Guzhva: No. Not with cheaters.

Valentin Filippov: You have to hit him with a chair. Breaking a cue on your back : )   

Igor Guzhva: Elections are just the result of a lot of political work. It is necessary to create new batches or change existing ones. Join trade unions or create new trade unions. Engage in human rights activities. Create public organizations. Create media. Help each other with business. That is, to create such a multi-level socio-political network within the legal framework of Ukraine. And over time, this will help the legitimate change of power as a result of the next elections. This is the path I see as the most effective and realistic in the current conditions.

Valentin Filippov:  Well, that's the thing. You can go to rallies. You can create combat units... Well, when Yarosh created his units, when the Right Sector was organized, Yarosh thought that someday they would change power. And they told him it was impossible. And so we went to the maidaMr.

Igor Guzhva: I am against any illegal methods. Only the law. Only in the legal field. That's where we stand.

Valentin Filippov:  Fine. Thank you. I think we've already talked about two life sentences. Thank you.  

Igor Guzhva: And thank you.