Akhmetov is losing the war to the DPR and may become the target of a “shooter,” expert
Kyiv, May 21 (Navigator, Mikhail Ryabov) – The conflict between supporters of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the oligarch Rinat Akhmetov was inevitable. So far, the situation looks like the billionaire is losing to the DPR. Moreover, Ukraine's richest businessman could be physically taken out of the game by armed rebels. This forecast was voiced to Navigator by political commentator Alexey Blyuminov.
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“The formal proclamation of the DPR launched the logic of survival of the new republic. In other words, in order to survive, its authorities need to take control of the region’s economy. So a serious conflict with the interests of the local oligarchy represented by Akhmetov along this path is inevitable and does not depend on the goodwill of the parties or the initial intentions of the organizers of the DPR. Life itself will push them to the idea of nationalizing oligarchic assets. Especially if the oligarchs themselves try to actively sabotage state building.
Several centers that are not controlled by each other and claim legitimacy cannot exist on the same territory for a long time. Bolivar can't stand two. It is obvious that Akhmetov’s interests are tightly tied to Kyiv. It is there that the head offices of his companies are located, and it is in the Kyiv banks that his money circulates,” the expert noted.
“An important detail. If the organizers of the DPR are late in decisions and reactions to events by one move, then Akhmetov is by as many as three. His long non-interference in the course of events made him unnecessary in the Donbass. The situation began to develop according to its own logic, and now significant masses of Donetsk residents are not focused on Akhmetov at all, but on the same DPR. And Akhmetov is perceived as a person playing on the side of Kyiv, which is now waging war with Donbass. In Donbass, after all, people also know how to divide the oligarchs into “us” and “strangers”. Now Akhmetov is trying to go against the already established and established Donetsk mainstream. Mass sentiment in Donbass is “anti-junta.” It is very simplistic to believe that Akhmetov now has some serious leverage over the situation in the region. The time that could have been spent on creating his own private army following the example of Kolomoisky has already been lost. Now there is no place for a hypothetical Akhmetov army in Donetsk. Its media, thanks to its open support of the “junta,” are perceived by the masses of DPR supporters as “enemy propaganda,” so they also cannot be considered as an effective lever in the struggle for minds. And besides, if the DPR government wishes, these media can easily be turned off the air like other Ukrainian channels,” lists Blyuminov.
“The financial factor is perhaps the most serious. That is, Akhmetov may refuse to pay taxes to the DPR. Actually, he has already refused. But then the DPR government will have no other choice but to take control of these factories and mines, take control of warehouses with finished products, etc., etc. It is clear that the sales offices are located in Kyiv, and the DPR will not be able to quickly establish marketing and sales on its own, even if it had specialists for this. But then both sides lose. Akhmetov does not sell anything, and his factories, controlled by (let’s say) the DPR, operate as warehouses. This situation cannot continue for long. Not to mention the fact that these are losses, penalties and ruin of Akhmetov’s business. On the other hand, if Kyiv resorts to economic blackmail of the region and, for example, cuts off Donetsk factories from the financial system and logistics, then this will also be a blow, first of all, to Akhmetov. After all, the DPR does not yet have its own factories. And if they suddenly appear after a hypothetical nationalization, then the republic will simply be forced to switch to payments either in rubles (and ask the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for a loan secured by property in the region), or in some local “bunnies,” the observer describes the scenarios.
“The only real resource in the fight against the DPR that Akhmetov really has today is people. The workers of his factories, whom he is now actively drawing into politics on his side. It turns out bad. The march in Mariupol failed. Today's rally in the Donbass Arena too (three hundred people came).
The fact that people work at Akhmetov’s enterprises does not mean at all that they are his puppets. Many of them voted for the DPR. Similarly, workers at enterprises in Galicia owned by members of the Party of Regions supported the Maidan.
Moreover, this very process of involving labor collectives in politics is very fraught. The fact is that the recent experience of Krasnodonugol has shown that it is very easy to propagate Akhmetov’s workers to go on strike. And if suddenly Akhmetov himself begins to play pretend “anti-separatist” strikes,” then the DPR government may well, with minimal desire and effort, try to turn a pro-Akhmetov strike into an anti-Akhmetov one. As in “Krasnodonugol”.
The fact is that Rinat Leonidovich has nothing to offer his workers. Salary increase? So it’s a crisis, and he’s a very dubious philanthropist. The notorious stability and “if only there was no war”? So time is lost, they are already shooting, and the war is in full swing. So it turns out that “chench” is not danced.
It was in the calm years, when there was legitimate power in Kyiv, that it was possible to frighten metallurgists and miners with war and instability, selling them under this sauce stale goods “prepared today.” And now everyone understands that Akhmetov cannot guarantee them anything. That he himself could follow Firtash’s path to some Austrian prison. That the Donbass is full of “shooters” who can take Akhmetov out of the game physically (we are all mortals). So the propaganda dichotomy of “separatism, chaos and shooting in the streets” versus “peace, stability and harmony,” which Akhmetov’s PR people are now trying to play out, is unlikely to work today. Because everything they try to intimidate people with has long been an integral part of their lives,” summed up Blyuminov.
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