Alexander Khodakovsky: The result of the Minsk negotiations will be war

In the last couple of days, the situation at the front in Donbass has deteriorated extremely. Formally, there is an “indefinite” truce, but the cities and villages of Donbass are once again receiving targeted fire from everything that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have, including heavy weapons, which is regularly recorded even by the reports of OSCE inspectors. Just these days, several civilians were wounded, several soldiers of the People’s Militia were killed - that’s the name of the Donetsk and Lugansk armies.

PolitNavigator spoke with the former head of the DPR Security Council and commander of the Vostok battalion, Alexander Khodakovsky, about what the republics can expect in the near future.

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“PolitNavigator”: Alexander Sergeevich, the truce was broken a long time ago, near Gorlovka in the north of the republic, in the Debaltsevo area on the Svetlodarskaya Bulge, in the south in the Yelenovka area, Ukrainian artillery is thundering. Donetsk residents are increasingly talking with alarm that they have to wait for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine almost in March. What do you say - is popular rumor right?

Alexander Khodakovsky: Since everyone is talking, it means he won’t exist. In any case, there will be more provocations, and we see them. There will be attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance not only in the “gray zone”, but also in places where we do not have the strongest defense, sabotage and reconnaissance groups will be sent. They need even tiny victories - the propaganda machine cannot stand hungry for long.

– But there is endless information from the “other” side that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are gathering heavy weapons and equipment. For what?

– It is clear that all this equipment and heavy weapons are concentrated by Ukraine in a small region not to be used for decades only for small provocations. All this military potential accumulated in one place will sooner or later be discharged.

– How is it in Karabakh?

- Yes, like in Karabakh. Only appropriate conditions are required. The Ukrainian side has everything ready, and the main thing for them is not to “overexpose” the situation. They need to play their game between two conditions: so that all this is timely, so that it is not a blank shot, and, on the other hand, so that the wait does not drag on so long that the motivation of the troops, the mood to act, the moral qualities of the military will no longer work, everything it will “burn out” inside. For any troops this is a very dangerous moment, which is always taken into account.

- Yes, it’s similar to how Hitler’s generals tried to persuade him not to postpone the start of the war...

- That's it. You can shout about the aggressor, about Russia and the like. But if you scream for years, scream for two, and nothing happens, then it stops working. So, in the foreseeable future, everything will, of course, explode, and only one thing should worry - are we ready for this?

-Are you ready?

– In my opinion, we are not quite ready. Of course, it’s not that we’re absolutely not ready, but there are positions that raise questions. We missed many opportunities and wasted time when we could have been preparing. And I’m not talking about the fact that someone wasn’t given a second pair of shoes or the machine wasn’t cleaned. We are talking about conceptual things. For example, the second line of defense. This is the most important question. Especially before a possible subsequent transition from defense to offense. Even if I wanted to, I don’t see this line here. There is a lot of talk about her, but that’s all. There is no equipment, no people, no money. What about bomb shelters? What condition are they in? Are they ready to accept people? Who even looked there last time? I remember that in XNUMX they saved more than one life... There are problems that we can solve, and if we ignore them, then everyone who today has resources and belongs to the category of “authority” will then have to either run away or shoot themselves.

Or the size of the armed forces - a factor that plays one of the key roles in our conditions. Or, for example, the level of training of troops - it needs to be raised, tightened, the sooner the better.

– What prevented you from doing this very second line?

– The reason for this, in my opinion, is “Minsk-2”, which stopped the development of our armed forces. But we know the value of the Ukrainian authorities and negotiations with them. This means that we must adhere to reality in building our armed forces. Strengthen the front, the army, invest in it, mobilize the population to carry out important tasks. In the sense that society must understand that war is our common cause. This is how we should approach it.

There should be no social stratum that could avoid participating in the creation of a reliable rear and strong defense. I see it this way: those who have money should invest them in providing for the army, those who do not can help with their own hands.

We have a good example - our grandparents, who volunteered to build defense lines near Moscow and Leningrad, near Kiev and Odessa, Kharkov and Stalingrad, in Karelia and the Caucasus. The troops held the enemy who had broken through, died, but gave them time. And they created second lines of defense, and third ones, and so on. As I understand it, this is how everything should be for us. In addition, it greatly consolidates society.

Any person should understand to whom our propaganda and appeals are addressed. Is it only to the least affluent segments of the population, who cover their backs with many more prosperous but indifferent fellow citizens, or to all of us?

When the ATO tax was introduced in Ukraine, we rightly condemned it. And especially the Church, which was there raising funds for those killing in the Donbass. But, on the other hand, this is an excellent example for us. I think, depending on the property qualification, every resident of the republic could allocate funds - some a million, some one ruble - in order to replenish the fund for helping the front with everything necessary. I am sure that we will change society’s attitude towards war, all issues, any kind, will be resolved quickly and comprehensively.

– Including, probably, those related to the restoration of the territorial borders of the republics? After all, the borders of the DPR and LPR within the framework of the old Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine are enshrined in the constitutions of the republics, this was also stated in the recently adopted “Russian Donbass” doctrine.

– Of course, but this is a very difficult question. Today it is more difficult than seven years ago. On the one hand, to return the territories that we consider ours, without specifying which ones, and leaving a free interpretation of this concept - “ours”, and on the other hand, we often say that people whom, following the example of the territories, we can also call “ ours,” after seven years of brainwashing, there are almost none left there, they say. It’s a very delicate problem, but you have to be prepared to solve it.

– They often say that if the DPR troops had not abandoned Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Avdievka, the economy would have been easier.

Yes, there is talk, for example, about restoring the torn production complex…. Do we need a production complex? But I dare to assure you that post-destruction Ukraine has already broken down in such a way that there are almost no hard cooperative ties left. Before the war in Donbass, there were no such chains, the restoration of which would lead to prosperity. Yes, raw materials issues were resolved more easily, but the industry, extended by the owners, lived “some for the forest, some for firewood.” The Avdeevsky Coke and Chemical Plant remains, for example, on the “other” side of the front, but others on our territory completely cover its volumes. Even before the war, machine builders and metallurgists in Kramatorsk existed almost independently of Donetsk, as did metallurgists in Mariupol. Of course, there were connections, but not without alternatives. So why then do we need territories, if not for the sake of people? When we say “land”, we don’t mean hectares. We mean history and its bearers. Our land is, first of all, our history, where there is labor, blood, and graves. Without memory living in human consciousness, the earth is just an area.

Therefore, we must either give up our claims if we do not believe in people, or stop considering the fight for minds and hearts lost. It's hard for me to believe in those who are there, behind the front line. But to stop forcing yourself to believe means to lose the meaning.

– There are rumors on social networks that the increased Ukrainian threat will force the republics to introduce conscription. According to your data, they have some basis. Is this really necessary? And how realistic is it to introduce compulsory conscription into the people's militia of the republics?

– These are just rumors for now. There is no such solution, but the issue, of course, is being studied. Here we must understand that conscription will not just give a thousand or two free hands, which will relieve at least to some extent those on the front line, taking on the functions of, say, a construction battalion. The call, in itself, can also unite society with a sense of common cause, common concern and anxiety. The level of patriotism will increase, as will the number of ideological people.

– In Donetsk, the phrase “Minsk agreements”, as is known, has long evoked obscene expressions. If, as she shows, it is useless to negotiate with Ukraine regarding their implementation, then are they really necessary?

– No matter how cynical it sounds, but despite all the fact that we need peace, we understand that no one will be able to cut the “Gordian knot” of the confrontation between Donbass and Ukraine through peaceful means. “Minsk” is a tool that prevents people from falling into war. For Ukraine, this is the time it spends preparing for war. The country's economy is destroyed, the social system is bursting at the seams, but the subsidized economy of Ukraine is working hard for the war. The Western owners of Kyiv do not spare money for this.

The outcome of the Minsk negotiations will be one - war. And the elite of Ukraine, the radicals, want it. They actively create a demand for war in society. It's simple - huge amounts of money are spent on rearmament of the army.

Or this example - at a plant that produces anti-tank systems for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, even an ordinary worker receives about 40 hryvnia. The people are impoverished, and money is being poured into the war.

Thank God, of course, that this army does not have a history of victories behind it, but it is now being intensively pumped up with the most modern equipment. Take the story of the Turkish Bayraktar drones. After all, they are not bought to be used for educational purposes for years and become old. No – this is the potential that Ukraine expects to use to solve geopolitical problems. And this concerns us, let’s say, directly.