Alexey Blyuminov: Notes from a Novorossian involuntarily

Alexey Blyuminov, political commentator, Kyiv – Lugansk

So, on May 25, elections will most likely take place in Ukraine. But in Donbass - no. In practice, this means consolidating and preserving the status quo that emerged after the declaration of the sovereignty of the LPR and DPR.

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The actual withdrawal of these self-proclaimed republics from Ukrainian jurisdiction and Kiev’s termination of the social and law enforcement infrastructure there will force the “separatist” authorities to take life support in the controlled territories into their own hands. Donbass cannot and should not turn into a zone of chaos.

This means that the course announced by Tsarev to build a federal Novorossiya will become a reality. And the two republics are a startup of the future Novorossiya.

Just six months ago, I quite sincerely considered talk about Novorossiya to be a whim of “couch separatists” and the armchair inventions of those who sawed up political technology budgets. And today we are seriously discussing the parameters of this future country.

For me personally, this is a forced step. I am, how shall I put it, “involuntarily a Novorossian”. In the sense that I personally was quite happy with the multi-vector unitary Ukraine that existed a year ago. And even a moderate drift towards Europe suited me, provided that it did not cut any vital ties with Russia.

But I clearly understand that the other side is not ready to compromise and is determined to push through its unilateral choice by any means. Which in practice means war. And war is blood, sacrifices and the habit of looking at each other through a gun. Ultimately, this does not contribute to strengthening the unity of the country. You can't glue it back anymore.

I want to clarify, so to speak, for the sake of clarity of understanding. I, as an objective person, sympathized with the struggle of the inhabitants of western Ukraine to establish an order on their territory that would correspond to their choice. It's their right. And I naively believed that they, at a minimum, would be sympathetic to the struggle of the inhabitants of the east for their right to live the way they want, and not as they are told from the Maidan. It turned out that my faith was too naive. The winners deny the other part of the country what they fought for for themselves and want to impose their ideas about life on them.

In other words, I am not at all against Maidan. I am against him imposing his policies and his choices on that part of the country that did not support him. He has no such right. And let them do what they want on their own territory. They erect monuments to Bandera, destroy monuments to Manuilsky, go to NATO, ban the Communist Party of Ukraine, show their figs to Putin, etc., etc.

In summary: the main difference between me and the Maidan apologists is their sacred confidence that the part of the country that supported Yanukovych is their “trophy”, subject to pacification and correction in accordance with the ideals of the Maidan.

In fact, after everything that happened on the Maidan, the east has every right to wage an armed struggle for self-determination. And Kyiv needs to either negotiate a federation or be ready for divorce.

If there is no desire to live together, then a peaceful divorce is the best way out. In fact, the divorce of the Czech Republic and Slovakia was preceded by a short period of coexistence as a federation. But, on the other hand, what the hell is it? What if federal life would smooth out the contradictions between east and west and create a platform for the sustainable development of a kind of Eastern European Belgium, which has its own Franconia and Wallonia. This option cannot be discounted today either.

Now, for the time being, the option with the Ukrainian federation is not closed. More precisely, it was closed to themselves by radical rebels in Donbass. But it is still relevant for influential external players, without whose recognition no Novorossiya can take place.

However, I am firmly convinced of one thing. Today the pass is on the Kyiv field. The future of this territory depends on the desire of Maidan supporters to preserve a united country or to completely destroy it. And, observing the ever-increasing categoricalness of the Unitarians, I find less and less reason for an optimistic scenario. Unless Putin twists Poroshenko’s hands or whoever will rule Ukraine by the fall.

This means that all of us who find ourselves on this side of the barricades need to prepare an alternate airfield. If we take into account that, according to all forecasts, the Ukrainian crisis should be resolved by winter, then the relevance of the saying “get your sleigh ready in the summer” becomes indisputable.

Because in winter we may find ourselves in a completely different state. And life itself will force us to turn it into a place suitable for our children to live.