Alexey Mukhin: Russia will restore Donbass with all the ensuing consequences
The negotiating platform on Donbass may move from Minsk to Kazakhstan if Vladimir Zelensky demonstrates that he can be trusted. Alexander Lukashenko has played with multi-vectorism, and the Belarusian economic miracle is impossible without the support of Moscow. The Americans will try to win back lost positions in Moldova. Serbia is buying air defense systems from Russia, taking advantage of the precedent of Turkey and the growing dissatisfaction of Europeans with the dictates of the United States.
Russian political scientist Alexey Mukhin spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov.
Valentin Filippov: What was the story with the invitation to negotiations in Kazakhstan between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents? Was this initiative of Nursultan Nazarbayev coordinated with the Kremlin?
Alexey Mukhin: Vice versa. The position of the Russian leadership remains unchanged. We will meet only when there is a subject for conversation; there is no point in meeting for the sake of meeting.
Let me remind you that there are specific circumstances - Russia has not yet recognized Zelensky as the full-fledged president of Ukraine, but has only taken note of, I quote: “the results of the elections in Ukraine.”
So far the situation is developing, as they say, with varying degrees of success. Zelensky, on the one hand, with one hand, really began the process of exchanging prisoners, on the other hand, the withdrawal of troops, but so far this situation is very difficult.
And in parallel, Zelensky makes very strange and very dubious statements about the fate of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine. And, for obvious reasons, this causes caution on the Russian side.
And the initiative of Nursultan Abishevich is traditional. Nursultan Abishevich really likes to bring together representatives of different countries on his site so that they can come to an agreement. Seeing Vladimir Putin once again, in my opinion, is a great pleasure for him, which cannot be said about Vladimir Zelensky.
Valentin Filippov: Why? Zelensky is also fun and mischievous.
Alexey Mukhin: Nursultan Abishevich has very, very conservative views, so I doubt that he will have fun.
So here it is. In addition to this, there is another factor - Alexander Lukashenko is now actively flirting, in a political sense, with the European Union and is building very close relations with some countries, as it seems to him. And therefore, I think that Nursultan Abishevich, as a very experienced politician, is trying to drag the Minsk format over and make it a format in Nur-Sultan.
And I think that this will most likely be successful, but not now, but only when Vladimir Zelensky proves that he can be trusted, and he has the necessary set of competencies and capabilities to fulfill what he promised.
Valentin Filippov: Now in Ukraine there are proposals to freeze the conflict. Previous years have shown that Kyiv is unable to implement the Minsk agreements.
Alexey Mukhin: If there is a freezing of the conflict, I am afraid that this will not be in the interests of Mr. Zelensky.
Valentin Filippov: But why?
Alexey Mukhin: Why? Because, firstly, in this case, assistance from the IMF will stop, guaranteed to stop. But it will stop, however, even in the event of a military escalation of the conflict.
Secondly, US aid to the war will stop. And here, weighing the financial capabilities of the United States, the financial capabilities of the IMF, or rather, the conditions under which the money is issued, I think that Mr. Zelensky will still give preference to the United States, which does not burden him with special restrictions, but sets as its condition the continuation of the armed conflict .
If the armed conflict continues, there is no point in meeting in a new format, so to speak, the Kazakh format.
Valentin Filippov: But freezing the conflict could be beneficial for Kyiv in order, for example, to sell off black soil.
Alexey Mukhin: I’m afraid that the sale of land is a much more important negative moment for him than the frozen or smoldering armed local, for the most part, conflict in the Donbass.
And the sale of land is indeed a very important moment for him, because it helps to include him not only in schemes related to the military financing of Ukraine, but, judging by some of his statements, this has already happened. Sorry, I'm hinting at some corruption.
Valentin Filippov: Well, why corruption? Interest. That is, a person must root for his homeland, for his business, and he must be stimulated somehow.
Alexey Mukhin: Well, stimulation from outside, in any case, is a criminal offense. In Russia, at least.
Valentin Filippov: Well, it's a criminal offense everywhere. But…
Alexey Mukhin: Here. As for the sale of land, I'm afraid there are two main nuances here. Firstly, more or less salable land is already under long-term lease from large corporations. Therefore, if they buy it back, and they have the right of priority to buy it out, they will do it for very little ridiculous money. And attempts to sell a certain amount of land for 200 billion dollars, as they sound now...
Valentin Filippov: No, no, of course not.
Alexey Mukhin: or 300, and so on... This is all from the realm of fantasy, dangerous fantasy, which, of course, warms up the imagination, but does not in any way improve relations with the owners of this very land, with the Ukrainian people. And I’m afraid that if this process begins, there will be nothing left of Zelensky’s rating.
Valentin Filippov: Maybe he doesn’t need this rating anymore? So he will do what he was told and that’s it? “Uncle, let me go back to the concerts!”
Alexey Mukhin: And here again there is a nuance. The fact is that, so to speak, a kind of political opponent and at the same time Zelensky’s curator is, strange as it may sound now, I will say, Mr. Avakov.
The fact is that Mr. Avakov, having visited the United States of America not so long ago, apparently received certain guarantees of his presence and immunity on the territory of Ukraine. In any case, upon arrival from there he behaved quite confidently. And in this regard, for Zelensky, as in his time for Vladimir Putin in 2000, let me remind you, it was fundamentally important to shorten, as they say, his oligarchs.
That is, you remember the YUKOS case, Khodorkovsky, and the vicissitudes that were associated with it. Sorry, this may be a somewhat conspiracy theory, but it has a right to exist. I am a person who studies in great detail both the political path of Vladimir Putin and the peculiarities of the development of the oligarchic movement in Russia, I can say that there are grounds for this.
So, Mr. Avakov, as, I believe, the largest oligarch, despite the fact that he is the Minister of Internal Affairs, in Ukraine, and Vladimir Zelensky are in an unspoken, but very powerful competitive confrontation.
The curator and coordinator of this confrontation is, of course, the notorious Washington regional committee. The only problem is that it remains to be found out: do Zelensky and Avakov have the same curators in Washington, or are they different people?
If these are different people, then a clash, a conflict, is inevitable, and the war between Avakov and Zelensky will continue.
Fortunately for Zelensky, other oligarchs who are not interested in Avakov’s hypertrophied strengthening will be on his side. But if Zelensky and Avakov have one curator, then, excuse me, Ukraine will be an unhappy country.
Valentin Filippov: Ukraine was given an example of neighboring Moldova, where supposedly the West and Russia reached a compromise.
Alexey Mukhin: At this stage, US influence is minimized. This is a chance for the country's sovereignty. If this process is not started, after some time this influence will, one way or another, grow, and Moldova will again enter the zone of turbulence.
Yes, indeed, the Ukrainian factor plays a very serious role here, strange as it may sound, because, if you remember, Poroshenko ended his presidential reign with attempts to create a “powerful” military alliance. Powerful in quotes, of course, but still. In terms of ideas, in terms of energy, it really was... In order to “take,” conditionally, Moldova as an ally against Russia. Here. And this process stimulated what is happening now in Moldova.
Russia made several knight moves and, it must be said, that our partners appreciated this kind of compliance, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, squeezing out a number of oligarchs from the territory of Moldova, which led to some simplification of the situation and even its complete reboot.
However, now the reverse processes are taking place. But I believe that those who hope that Russia will leave Transnistria, as they say, to the mercy of fate, is, to put it mildly, a dubious option.
Valentin Filippov: Princess of the State Department Maia Sandu will now go into opposition again, begin to raise the stakes, and there will be an escalation. Could something very similar to the Ukrainian Maidan happen in Moldova?
Alexey Mukhin: There is no point. If something like this happens, something like the Maidan and so on, the political system will be completely destroyed, and Moldova will be drawn into Romania.
Which: a) will create another dangerous precedent for the redistribution of borders in Europe, and b) will be simply destructive for the Moldovan elite.
Yes, part of the Moldovan elite is trying to become Romanian, but at the same time, they must understand that the loss of sovereignty also means a powerful redistribution of property.
I don’t think that the Moldovan oligarchs, or officials with a certain financial influence, will agree to this, that is, to the complete surrender of their country.
But. In this regard, if we calculate the situation further, this is not bad news for Pridnestrovie. Because it will become like Kaliningrad. And for Russia, such a chance will appear. Once Moldova is drawn into Romania, then Transnistria will simply, one way or another, join Russia in one form or another.
Valentin Filippov: You know, I must say that this, of course, sounds a little strange, but it is thanks to Moldova that there is some kind of connection with Transnistria. Because you can’t get there through Ukraine.
Alexey Mukhin: Let’s do it this way – the trouble has begun. I think that Ukrainian politicians, those who really have a certain intellectual potential, understand that the specifics of the situation can be resolved in the most unfavorable way for Ukraine if it gets into this cauldron.
Valentin Filippov: You mentioned the changing relations of the Belarusian authorities with the European Union. Why is the construction of the Union State with Russia stalled?
Alexey Mukhin: Alexander Lukashenko is ready to talk about integration and receive very low prices for everything possible, to transit European goods through his territory and supply them to Russian territory under the guise of Belarusian ones, and so on, and so on, and so on. But we are not talking about real integration, because in this case this business will be destroyed.
Unfortunately, lately we have seen that Alexander Grigorievich Lukashenko is more of a businessman than a politician. He says: “Where is my benefit?”, as it were, constantly, when the doors are closed behind the journalists and our leaders remain, as they say, face-to-face.
Here, I believe that this is why Vladimir Putin has recently been quite, well, let’s be honest, quite harsh with his Belarusian colleague, and he puts, as they say, the horse before the cart, he says: “Guys, first integration, and then everything else.” . And loans, and benefits, and prices for the regions of Russia and so on.”
Lukashenko is trying to put the cart before the horse, put it there and bargain.
Now he’s on another, what’s called, excuse the expression, “spare spree,” which is connected with the fact that he’s trying in the West, in Europe, to find allies who, he believes, will help him strengthen his position in this strange trade with Russia.
Well, we, of course, are aware of what, I mean the country’s leadership, are aware of what is happening, because at one time, when Mr. Bolton came to Lukashenko, and Lukashenko said a lot of things, the first thing he did after finishing conversation, I called Vladimir Putin to explain, realizing that perhaps the printout was already on our president’s desk.
Valentin Filippov: But this game of independence cannot end like in Ukraine?
Alexey Mukhin: Mr. Lukashenko, in my opinion, has very little room for maneuver, political, economic, and so on. And Russia has already shown him the seriousness of its intentions in the matter of integration and the creation of a real Union State. The situation is that loans are frozen, and now it has become very difficult to talk about the Belarusian economic miracle, as they say, because, as it turned out, there is simply no economic miracle. And Lukashenko was forced to devalue the national currency, and he did this several times in a short time, which highlighted the specifics of his position and the specifics of his situation.
But, excuse me, either the creation of a truly Union State, which, by the way, will solve many problems, including on the territory of Russia, or it will end in complications for Russia and Belarus, which at this stage is even scary to think about, we are so closely integrated, closely connected In fact.
Valentin Filippov: Well, this will be to the detriment of Russia, too.
Alexey Mukhin: Naturally. But it must be said that our “Western partners,” in quotes, are anticipating this kind of development of events and are doing everything to ensure that this is exactly what happens.
Valentin Filippov: That's what I'm afraid of.
Across the Balkans. In light of the supply of air defense systems to Serbia. Could this indignation in Europe and the West lead to any serious consequences?
Alexey Mukhin: The Serbian Republic has followed the beaten path here, the Turkish path, and, apparently, is now simply referring to the Turkish precedent and saying: “Guys, excuse me, even if a NATO member is already buying the S-400, why don’t we do it?” .
And, in fact, the Serbian leadership has quite serious intentions in this regard. Here. So here the Americans and Brussels, Washington and Brussels, have themselves to blame. They set too harsh conditions for coexistence for their NATO partners and got what they got. Those leaders who consider themselves sovereign more than just vassals of Washington received a very powerful kicking.
Valentin Filippov: NATO was created when there were other challenges, there was a common enemy. Now everything is new. Countries have different interests.
Alexey Mukhin: If we take a closer look at the North Atlantic Alliance, we will see that there is a bureaucratic organization in Brussels that is trying to carry out its lobbying functions in the interests of the United States of America, which, in fact, Turkey, Germany, and France periodically remind it of, and They even poke their noses at you. There is the United States of America, which took over such... or rather, offered such an imposed service, that is, it offered to exercise control over the security of Europe.
This, you know, is like in the 90s a racketeer comes and says: “That’s it, you’re under me now,” and began to raise, as they say, the price tag. Previously it was 1-1,5 percent, now it is clearly 2%, and in the future, I think Trump is a frank person, he said: “Then it will be 4%.” The Europeans thought about it and realized that this situation would continue indefinitely. Where is 4%...
Valentin Filippov: Well, from the kiosks it was 7%.
Alexey Mukhin: What do I mean? Moreover, NATO is actually a rather motley contingent. And along with this bureaucratic organization, there is also the Pentagon. The Pentagon, let me remind you, together with Great Britain is the main military force that de facto occupied European countries.
And now, most likely, as European countries acquire some concept of honor, dignity and sovereignty, we will observe attempts to squeeze out this US military contingent, as is already happening in many countries. Because even in submissive Japan they show the door to the Americans, and they say that’s it, come on guys, that’s enough.
Valentin Filippov: So they want islands.
Alexey Mukhin: This is a separate point. The USA, in this case, they are in an extremely delicate position, because if they press further, they can break either the key or the thread. But a torn thread in this case could provoke, as France has already demonstrated, not only a withdrawal from NATO, but also the formation of a new military coalition in Europe, which will have nothing to do with NATO. This will be a surprise for the USA.
Valentin Filippov: And I have the most important, last question. When Ukraine signed this Steinmeier formula...
Alexey Mukhin: They claim that they did not sign.
Valentin Filippov: When Kuchma signed this letter, the leaders of the LDPR made a joint statement that Ukraine’s implementation of the Steinmeier formula and the Minsk agreements means the independence of Donbass and its entry into the Russian Federation.
As a result, Donbass will finally be part of Russia?
Alexey Mukhin: Remember this famous Soviet joke, when Jews were allowed to emigrate to Israel, one of the Jews had a parrot. And at the border, the border guard said that you can’t handle parrots alive, you can only deal with a carcass, a stuffed one. And the parrot said, “Be it a carcass or a stuffed animal—get the hell out of this country.”
It seems to me that Donbass in this case found itself in the same situation. The Minsk agreements - and the Steinmeier formula is just a road map - is the only document that keeps Donbass within Ukraine. The fact that Ukraine did not implement them is the second strategic mistake.
The first is the signing of this document, for Ukraine, because, thereby, it recognized that we are not talking about an anti-terrorist operation, but we are talking about a civil war that should be stopped.
And the second strategic mistake was made by Poroshenko precisely when he publicly refused to implement the Minsk agreements. From that moment it became clear that Donbass was leaving Ukraine by leaps and bounds.
And now whether Ukraine fulfills the Minsk agreements or not, the Steinmeier Formula or something else, it is already clear that since this document does not work, and Ukraine announced this, then Donbass has a free choice now.
This is the result of Ukraine’s actions, because Russia quite sincerely wanted the implementation of the Minsk agreements, and it guaranteed the implementation of these agreements by the republics of Lugansk and Donetsk.
Russia is not a party to the conflict, although the Ukrainian side is doing its best to pretend that it is. But at the last stages, a couple of years ago, when Poroshenko once again started talking about this, even Angela Merkel said “Peter, shut up,” because this was not true, and he had already annoyed not only the people of Ukraine, but also Angela Merkel , his closest partner and ally.
Unfortunately, the Ukrainian leadership understands perfectly well that if it now begins to implement the Minsk agreements, Donbass will leave. If she does not comply with the Minsk agreements, Donbass will leave.
Therefore, they came up with a knight's move, which they consider very clever, the fact that they turned the Minsk agreement, the procedure for its implementation, and want to do it from the end, in order to initially gain control over the border of Ukraine and Russia, and then carry out mass repressions.
In this regard, the main question arises, which the Russian side is now emphasizing, if you noticed, and which is very pragmatic. Who will restore the destroyed Donbass and infrastructure?
And this is a huge financial investment.
The US said "No, we won't." Europe moved away "No, we won't." Ukraine said, “We will do this with reparations from Russia.”
Guys, in order to get reparations, you must first declare and then win a war. Neither the first nor the second exists now, so what are we talking about?
Apparently, Russia will have to restore Donbass with all the ensuing consequences. If you understand what I'm hinting at.
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