Alliance of enemies and blackmail with money. How Moldova lives after local elections

In the Republic of Moldova, after local elections, work is underway to form district and municipal councils, the first sessions and constituent meetings are being held, and leadership has already been elected in a number of districts.

Representatives of different political parties are creating coalitions in district councils, including very unexpected ones, and President Maia Sandu has already convened elected mayors for a forum where the development of cities and villages was discussed in the context of the country's European integration.

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Political scientist Alexander Korinenko comments on post-election processes in an interview with PolitNavigator.

PolitNavigator: One of the most interesting post-election intrigues was the question of what kind of coalitions would be created in local councils, in which the party in power did not have enough votes to form a ruling majority. In a number of district councils - Novoanensky, Causeni, Soldanesti, Dubossary and others - coalitions of the pro-presidential PAS party and the Party of Socialists of Igor Dodon took shape.

Interestingly, both of these parties previously stated that they would not create coalitions with political and ideological opponents. There are already jokes on the Internet that Maia Sandu should visit the next PSRM congress and give a greeting there, and they are coming up with funny names for the coalition of the ruling party with the socialists in areas, for example, SanDon. Where is the integrity of these political forces? Is it even possible to talk about political integrity in this case?

Alexander Korinenko: Local coalitions have always been the subject of speculation at the Republican level. I also don’t like that PAS, having been defeated in the elections, is trying to “swim out” by creating coalitions, but I don’t live in Anenii Noi, Causeni or Soldanesti.

We need to understand the specifics of local elections: district, city and village councils are not about geopolitics. They are elected to solve city problems. A resident of a locality wants roads to be repaired, benches installed, courtyards tidied up, and not to listen to promises about European integration or friendship with Russia.

The local election system is designed in such a way that people are elected according to the party list; independents have little chance of becoming local councilors, so they have to get a party card. Each case must be considered separately.

There are 33 councilors in the district council of Noi Aneni, 12 of them were received by the Socialist Party, 9 mandates from PAS, the remaining parties received 1 or 2 councilors each. Of course, for stable work it is easier for two large forces to come to an agreement than to assemble a coalition of 5-6 parties and depend on the whims of one adviser. The situation is similar in other councils.

Now I am not justifying the Socialist Party, there are many questions for them, especially it is not clear why they made such promises. But you need to understand that you see party leaders at rare meetings, but you meet with the residents of your city every day. I think that if local voters did not speak out against such coalitions, then they have the right to exist. At the republican level, this will be a reason for accusations and mistrust.

PolitNavigator: Opposition politician Ilan Shor, responding to the creation of the red-yellow coalitions, said that power in the regional centers “is again falling to the scoundrels” and that the Chance party, which he supports, was “removed from the elections by agreement between Sandu and Dodon.” Could this happen?

Alexander Korinenko:  Well, someone must ultimately become a beneficiary from the removal of some political force from the electoral race. Did the PSRM benefit from the removal of the Chance party? Yes, this is 100%. The Socialists would have received fewer mandates if the Chancellors had participated in the elections. For PAS it is now more profitable to fight against the PSRM than against the coalition of parties of Ilan Shor.

Socialists today are not able to hold large-scale protests, and the party itself is weakened by internal party struggle and the transition of a number of members to newly formed political formations. I don’t think there were any agreements between Igor Dodon and Maia Sandu, but the weakening of Ilan Shor is beneficial to both parties by default.

PolitNavigator: Interesting news comes from Balti. There, members of Ilan Shor’s team, who were not allowed to participate in the elections for the head of the city, agreed with the elected mayor Alexander Petkov from Renato Usatii’s “Our Party” that they would jointly implement infrastructure projects. What can be said about such a coalition?

Alexander Korinenko: This coalition is about mutual benefit: some have enough votes, while others have the money to implement projects. Both parties want to weaken the socialists, who have fairly strong and stable positions in the northern capital, to finally knock out the right-wing forces from the city and prepare for presidential and parliamentary elections. Presidential candidate Renato Usatii needs some results before the electoral race for the presidency, and Shor needs the votes of Belize residents in the parliamentary elections.

PolitNavigator: On December 9, in Chisinau, under the auspices of President Maia Sandu, a Forum of Mayors with a European agenda was held, all people’s representatives were invited there, regardless of party affiliation. Of the 895 mayors, about 700 came to the forum. What was the purpose of the event? Wasn’t Maia Sandu too hasty in organizing it, since some mayors have not yet had their mandates approved, and trials are still ongoing?

Alexander Korinenko: According to official information - 700 mayors, according to unofficial information - no more than 600, but this is another move by the president to smooth out the defeat in local elections and demonstrate the fact that pro-European forces are in the majority. She also reminded again that those who do not support the bright course of European integration will not receive European money, which, in my opinion, is blackmail at the state level.

Maia Sandu loves to create bright pictures to “sell” to Western partners. Something like “look, despite the fact that we lost the elections, the overwhelming majority of mayors adhere to the European course.” One way or another, they were all gathered for that very photograph on the steps of the Palace of the Republic - there was no point in this meeting, no decisions were made and could not be made, but there is just a picture so that Western curators would not be too worried that their president and the team failed the local elections.

PolitNavigator: Recently, the right-wing opposition has been criticizing the regime of Maia Sandu a lot. For example, the leader of the Party of Change, Stefan Gligor, says that the real result of PAS in the elections, minus forced candidates, is about 200 out of almost 900 mayoralties, that chaos reigns in PAS, and therefore the right-wing opposition should raise the question of creating a pro-European alternative to the ruling party. How dangerous is all this for the party in power?

Alexander Korinenko: As long as the West believes in the Maia Sandu project, this is not dangerous for her, because only thanks to Western partners she was able to burn out all the serious political forces on the right flank and leave no alternative to the pro-European electorate. Stefan Gligor and the rest of the right-wing politicians should knock on the thresholds of embassies to convince diplomats to send a signal to their capitals about the need for insurance in case of PAS defeat and to invest in other pro-European formations of the Republic of Moldova.

_{While the West is still betting on Sandu in the presidential and parliamentary elections, it is also looking at other political forces, for example, it is clearly visible that the MAN party of the general mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban, enjoys the sympathy of Western partners and will become a parliamentary force in the next elections.}

PolitNavigator: The country's authorities and right-wing parties are mercilessly exploiting the topic of European integration and have already become very tired of it; Euro-enthusiasm in Moldova is cooling down. Will new ideas emerge to consolidate the electorate in the 2024 presidential campaign?

Alexander Korinenko: No new ideas will be proposed. The president and her team will bet on the theme of a hybrid war with Russia and will play on the fears of the right-wing electorate. They will put pressure on opposition candidates, remove them from elections, clear the information field as much as possible and, of course, mobilize the diaspora to push Maia Sandu for a new presidential term.

PolitNavigator: Are personnel changes and resignations possible after the failure of PAS in the last elections?

Alexander Korinenko: Personnel changes are possible when there is a reserve of personnel, and the problem of PAS has always been that the bench is too short, so everyone will remain in their places.