America received a slap in the face: Russia’s ultimatum is insulting and obviously impossible to implement
In Russia there might not have been Yeltsin, the seven-banker system and the Chechen wars. The nineties became a black failure in the history of the country. Only in the twenty-first century does Russia return to the World Elite. The “Plutonium Ultimatum” was a spit on the polished boot of the American cowboy.
The United States has exhausted all means of putting pressure on Russia. Any nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia will be in favor of third countries and will throw America decades into the past.
About this, and, of course, about Ukraine, with a brilliant military analyst, a direct participant in the events of October 1993 Vlad Shurygin said a PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov.
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Valentin Filippov: Hello Vladislav!
Vladislav Shurygin: Hello.
Valentin Filippov: Vladislav, you, as a participant in the events of twenty-three years ago, October 1993... Do you think something could have worked out then? Could Russian history have gone differently?
Vladislav Shurygin: You know, I’ve been asking myself this question for 23 years. I think the chances were quite high. It cannot be said that things would have been different, but several things are certain.
One of these factors was that during all two weeks of this confrontation the sympathy of the people, and at that time the people still meant quite a lot, because literally before that, in two years, it was the people who actually brought Yeltsin to power - this is the tough position of the population, which supported Yeltsin at that time, condemned what was later called the “putsch”, the events of August 1991...
And the people at that time were already completely on the side of the Supreme Council.
Secondly, the Supreme Council was the force that supported Yeltsin at first as an independent deputy; the mandate was ceded to him. Then he was elected president of Russia with this support. And in 1991, the parliament in Russia became the center of opposition to the “big government” and those who were called the State Emergency Committee.
Therefore, such strength, she could not just leave. And on October 3, 1993, I remember this very well, there was no power in Moscow. Starting from approximately 12 o'clock on the 3rd until the morning of the next day, when forces were already pulled together and the shooting of parliament began, there was no power, as such, in Moscow.
The police simply fled, they no longer participated in anything, and at that time this was the main support for Yeltsin and his inner circle. The army practically isolated itself in the barracks, and after these events a sharp cooling began between Yeltsin and Grachev.
Here is Erin, with these forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which actively supported him, they were already paralyzed at that time.
Therefore, indeed, events could have gone differently.
Valentin Filippov: And what? Would there be no "nineties"?
Vladislav Shurygin: I think the story would have taken a completely different path. Of course, we would not have this oligarchic capitalism that we experienced in the nineties. Because at that time the already existing and future oligarchy, they were sincerely hated by the people, and the parliament, which sought to correct its mistakes, of course, was ready to deal very harshly with these oligarchs.
One of them, the most famous at that time, Gusinsky, he would have been arrested. Because he was the one who most actively supported Yeltsin and, together with Luzhkov, they actually organized this Moscow force that opposed the Supreme Council. They organized its isolation, in fact a complete blockade.
Accordingly, in this case, if successful, the concept of “democracy” would be further strengthened. If the people showed themselves and were taken into account in the events of 1993, then it would be impossible to brush them aside. And bring everything into that very sad state that lasted all the following years.
If the old Constitution existed and would still work, according to which the main power in the country would belong to the Congress of the Supreme Council. The Congress of People's Deputies, which was, indeed, the highest form of power. The President was certainly controlled.
It would be a completely different country. Would she have avoided mistakes? I think she would have her mistakes.
It is unlikely that there would be a seven-banker system there.
It is unlikely that Boris Berezovsky would have been there.
It’s unlikely that “Roma is a family friend” would have been there, and, in general, it’s unlikely that there would have been “family” there.
But it is quite possible that there would be problems there. Their crises. And its dramatic moments. But that would be a different story.
I’m almost sure that two Chechen wars would not have happened there.
Valentin Filippov: So I wanted to ask about the Chechen wars...
Vladislav Shurygin: But whether Chechnya would remain part of Russia in this case is an open question. What would be…. Therefore, this is absolutely an alternative that goes to the pen of science fiction writers, not political scientists.
Valentin Filippov: Do you agree with the statement that Russia and we “rose from our knees”? The “ultimatum” that was put forward the other day regarding plutonium. Can we say that Russia is returning to the top elite?
Vladislav Shurygin: I see absolutely multidirectional processes. On the one hand, I see with great pleasure the restoration of the potential of the people themselves. I see. People have changed after this absolutely hopeless poverty and doom of the nineties, when no one cared about anything and there was biological survival, I see completely different people.
I see people who have this enormous experience, who, out of the blue, don’t believe anything. For whom propaganda is already propaganda. Which distinguish forget-me-not from a known substance. I see people who, in many ways, are internally free. And when now some of our liberals howl after the elections that the people of Russia are absolutely the same as “a country of slaves, a country of masters,” I understand that they simply do not know their own country.
I see how people strive to be proud of their country. I see a huge demand for our history. People want to be proud of their country, their history, their future and their present. This can even be seen, excuse me, by the order on the streets. This is very striking.
Ten years ago, after any holiday, the streets resembled a garbage dump. And now you can walk around the festive city all day and not see a piece of paper anywhere. And this is not the work of Tajiks or Uzbeks. This is the inner dignity of people who understand that this is their city. This is their country. And they are no longer limited to the territory of their apartment.
When before, it was possible to clean the apartment there, and the garbage was thrown directly into the stairwell. This was in the nineties.
Valentin Filippov: From the window. The garbage chute is like a windowJ
Vladislav Shurygin: On the other hand, I see that the Russian elite is in a deep crisis. The elite is new, state, state-patriotic, imperial, it constitutes a very small minority. And she is very heterogeneous within herself.
There are a lot of oligarchic people in it who see in this patriotic trend an opportunity, rather, for themselves and their interests. They consider patriotism as a kind of bridle on which now, after the liberal nineties, they can change the rotten bridle of liberalism and hang a new, patriotic one. And drag the people to the same place where they went before.
I see a huge amount of corpse stains and cynicism, and such walking corpses of that period, which are still handling enormous capital, which have enormous influence. The same Chubais. This whole “young team” that grew up in the nineties. And Gref, and Kudrin, and other chicks of the nest of the Higher School of Economics.
I also see among senior officials a large number of people for whom patriotism is just chatter and a cover for their own ambitions.
I see that this course towards patriotism is very uneven. It cannot be called a monsoon, which always blows in one direction. It is, rather, a whirlwind that will not necessarily persist. If this elite begins to become disillusioned with this path, then it will begin to frantically search for something else.
Valentin Filippov: “If you happen to be born in the Empire, it’s better to live in a remote province by the sea.” I always considered myself lucky. But, on the other hand, when there is a crisis in the Empire, its spheres of influence are reduced, then it is in the provinces, precisely on the outskirts, that the real... ass, as they say, sets in. What hopes are there that Russia will, after all, rise up? Judging by the “ultimatum” addressed to the United States - if this is not a game before the elections - it is impossible to reach an agreement with the Americans. What will happen to Donbass? What will happen to Odessa?
Vladislav Shurygin: I think that here we go into the realm of many probabilities. But let's start with the following. First. Over the past two years, no one has surrendered Donbass. No matter how they talk about it.
Valentin Filippov: Well, this is a controversial issue.....
Vladislav Shurygin: Controversial only for those who do not know the extent of financial monthly support. And all the risks that Russia bears associated with this.
It was possible to reach an agreement ten times already, ten times to quietly surrender, and even the Russian internal factor of Donbass, yes, it, of course, hit the image very hard, but if we were talking only about the interests of one or another financial group, then these risks they would go.
I think that here again a multidirectional process is taking place within the elite itself. And there are some in the Kremlin leadership who support the idea that Russia should maintain its presence in all of its key regions, including Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. Anywhere. Likewise, those who believe that Russia’s place is in the family of European nations must follow in the wake of Europe, accordingly, not twitch, not rock the boat, and live with a hundred varieties of Parmesan.
Therefore, these two trends are fighting.
For example, the former head of the presidential administration Ivanov, who was traditionally known as a Westerner, and it is difficult to suspect him of sympathizing with Donbass. But at the same time, the same Valentina Matvienko, whose tough position was the basis of decisions related to Crimea, and who herself comes almost from Donbass - of course, this is a completely different type of leader.
Therefore, I have no doubt that with the number of costs that are left behind, and with all that Russia has already endured, it will not give up this burden.
Not only because too much has been spent, but because there is an understanding of why she needs it all. And not only in a utilitarian, but also in a spiritual sense.
Therefore, Donbass will not be abandoned. Just like everything else.
Will we work with Ukraine? – It’s difficult to discuss. Because if we discuss some official things, they are already clear and obvious to everyone. If we talk about actions that are in “gray” zones, then we must either delve into the area of state secrets, or simply guess.
If we talk about the ultimatum again, about everything else... For me personally, this ultimatum means only one thing. For the first time in 23 years, after long statements and attempts, Russia actually, a strange word, but Russia became enraged.
Let me remind you that for 23 years we were a country that lost the Cold War. For 23 years we have recognized this in one form or another. Therefore, even when we tried to object to our American patron, we always maintained a certain rhetoric. The rhetoric of overlord and master.
We said: “Yes, we don’t agree, we are categorically against it.”
But we say: “We maintain partnerships, our Western partners, our American partners.”
Even when they behaved completely bestially, we were still afraid of some kind of demarche. So as not to provoke your master.
Here is our statement on plutonium, in this case, a complete break.
This is such a riot in the provinces.
The demands that Russia has put forward to America are obviously not feasible. They are insultingly unworkable. And it doesn’t matter at all that we are talking about a uranium deal, and who is talking about it. This is complete nonsense and not worth discussing. But the very fact that America got a slap in the face, and an American cowboy got spit on his polished boot, this is a thing that was really done for the first time.
No demands have ever been made on America before.
America has never been put in this position before.
This means one thing - the president, having done this, very clearly broke off these relations. This is a declaration of war, in fact. Still cold.
And Americans are somewhat confused about how to react to this. The statement on Syria is not a reaction to our statement. We've been waiting for it, and this announcement has been talked about all last week. And maybe we even worked proactively. We knew that this American uncle, the world master, should shake his finger at us and bang on the table with his fist. And then we took it and did it ourselves ahead of him.
Therefore, the Americans, of course, are confused. They don't know what to do next. Or go further along the path of a very tough confrontation, but there is nowhere to go. All sanctions have already been introduced, all that remains is to sever all diplomatic relations, turn off SWIFT and lower the Iron Curtain. But it won't work any further than it did. We still have two thirds of the World with whom we can communicate, run the economy, not as successfully as with the Americans, with their financial system, but this will not kill us. We have already adapted.
Or go further to the hot phase.
The hot phase is fraught with the complete loss by the Americans of everything that has been achieved in 30 years. Because if it comes to a serious military conflict, then America has too many enemies in the world who will be any of its weakness, any of its technological defeat, but we must understand that an exchange of nuclear strikes throws civilization out of civilization for several years, I won’t say that A few dozens….
Valentin Filippov: That is, China will win as a result?
Vladislav Shurygin: Any third country that remains outside of this conflict will win. Despite the fact that there will still be no more volunteers to go to Russia.
It turns out that America, which now controls the entire World, can lose everything overnight. And therefore, the question of reaction is very acute now.
Valentin Filippov: Well, if they give us SWIFT will be turned off, can we at least get to the Dnieper? To advance in Ukraine...
Vladislav Shurygin: I think that if SWIFT is turned off for us, we will move to the Dnieper. But you need to understand that today’s Ukraine in its system of existence is not capable of existing without war and without conflict.
Valentin Filippov: I know that.
Vladislav Shurygin: Therefore, most likely, in this case, the scenario will be different. Sooner or later, Ukraine, invigorated as if by cocaine with another dose of stories about its own invincibility, will choose a reason and twitch again.
Then a completely different peace enforcement operation will begin.
You see, there are several things here. You need to understand that even among us, not only among patriots, but also among very knowledgeable experts associated with Ukraine, they say that there is no single point of view about Ukraine.
On the one hand, everyone wants to draw a beautiful line to the Dnieper, through Odessa to Transnistria, and create such a powerful enclave. And then let them live as they want, whatever is above and beyond.
Now imagine that we are entering Ukraine after two years of this wild propaganda. Even the number of people who previously sympathized with us, and now they have decreased significantly, some even remain sympathizers, but now they hide it all and are afraid.
Some people are disappointed in many ways, including Russia’s indecisiveness. Someone took it for granted that Russia will not come, which means we must live here and now.
The amount of support from people who would greet Russia on the Dnieper with flowers is not so decisive...
Therefore, unfortunately, the second point of view says that Ukraine must go through its own way of the cross. That we must preserve those regions where we have support and which have already proven themselves, I’m talking about Donbass. And in this case, just let the Ukrainians understand for themselves what they have gotten themselves into.
But here the question, again, is price. How many people will be disappointed during this time, how many will die in the basements of the SBU, how many people, in general, will die in this endless bleeding.
Unfortunately, we really are in such a stalemate where there are simply no easy answers and easy solutions.
Valentin Filippov: It always seemed to me that we drove ourselves... Because it was possible with militia forces.
Vladislav Shurygin: You know, even in the famous September 2014, when we stood near Mariupol, I know the situation too well... “North Wind” was unable to enter Mariupol for one reason. It was necessary to enter purely with your own infantry, and everyone would understand what the “North Wind” was, or not to do it at all.
Because at that time the militia units themselves were already smeared with thin oil all over.
Valentin Filippov: And Mariupol was waiting for this... All the Armed Forces officers had already fled from there...
Well, okay, thank you very much!
Vladislav Shurygin: Please! Good luck!
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