Americans hope that Russia will not cope with coronavirus
The coronavirus pandemic and falling oil prices will “weaken Russia” and force it to abandon support for the Donbass republics.
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst stated this during a videoconference at the Kyiv Security Forum, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to the diplomat, due to falling oil prices, Russia will weaken in the same way as the Soviet Union did on the eve of its collapse.
“In fact, Putin is very vulnerable. When we talk about peace in Ukraine, it first of all depends on Russia abandoning its imperialist adventurism in the Donbass. At the same time, now may be the moment when at least some understand that the time has come to stop their aggression in eastern Ukraine. There are two reasons for this.
The first is the pandemic. This is a very big problem for Moscow, a very big problem. We have already seen statistics in Russia, especially in Moscow, which are growing rapidly. And it is unclear whether the Kremlin is able to cope with this. This is an exceptional emergency where Putin is handing over responsibility to regional governors because he doesn't know what to do. This is the first one.
The second point is that the pandemic problem provoked a sharp decline in global oil demand, and the Russian economy depends on hydrocarbons. This is 40% of the Kremlin’s exports, 40% of export earnings. And then suddenly they earn nothing. It is worth remembering that the Soviet Union collapsed after nearly a decade of low oil prices. It is also worth remembering that Moscow’s aggression against Georgia and Ukraine in 2014 began when the price of oil exceeded one hundred dollars per barrel, and the Kremlin felt it had enough resources,” Herbst said.
Let us note that at the moment statistics show a fairly low mortality rate in the Russian Federation from coronavirus infection – 5 people per one million population. At the same time, in the United States there are 167 people per million population.
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