American banner for Zelensky
Zelensky’s unprecedented rating collapsed after his meeting with Trump. The British press allows itself direct insults to the President of Ukraine. Attempts to organize a “Maidan” were provoked by the West. Ukrainian elites have become hostages of the struggle between American Democrats and Republicans. Vladimir Putin will not provide image support to Zelensky.
The brilliant sociologist Evgeniy Kopatko told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that Ukraine will not fulfill the conditions for holding a summit meeting in the Normandy format, and that the hardworking Donbass will not be a parasite in Russia.
Valentin Filippov: Evgeniy, now everyone is running around with this Steinmeier formula and it is quite possible that there is already sociology, how many people are “for” this formula, how many are “against”. Is there such a sociology? How many people even understand what this formula is?
Evgeny Kopatko: Actually, not everyone is fussing with this Steinmeier formula. In this case, the understanding of this process is also not very good. Therefore, sociology, which directly answers the question “do you know what the Steinmeier formula is?”... Ukrainians did such sociology. But I understand that most people have difficulty understanding what it is. Because if you hear what the experts are talking about, then I want to tell you that there is no understanding of this among the expert community either. Even the top political leadership of Ukraine does not have this understanding. In any case, words sound mutually exclusive, contradictory, what other synonyms can be found, reflecting the attitude, understanding of the formula, the one that is called Steinmeier.
Therefore, it will be clear to you that if such devastation is in the minds of the expert community and the political leadership, then what is happening to the people, I think there is no need to be a sociologist. Well, if so, answer this question with slight irony.
But seriously, I really probably don’t belong to the group of people who support this formula and so on, for me Steinmeier ended on February 21, 2014, when they forced Viktor Fedorovich with the Poles and the French to sign these agreements. The next day they surrendered Yanukovych, Ukraine, and everything else. That is, to carry him around like a dirty bag, I think, is somehow not even very ethical. Because the person had nothing to do with it, neither politically nor in... Well, we can’t talk about moral responsibility in these things, especially regarding the native Ukrainians, I mean all of us, as the West treated us . Therefore, this is my attitude towards Steinmeier. That's all.
Valentin Filippov: Don’t you think that, in principle, when the parties agree on something, some kind of guarantees are needed, not in words? Ukraine signs the Minsk agreements? Why does she sign them? Because she has troops in the cauldron. And they are, as it were, incentivized to fulfill these Minsk agreements exactly as long as their troops are in the cauldron. As soon as the troops are no longer in the cauldron, the situation seems to have changed.
Evgeny Kopatko: To be fair, the Minsk agreements after Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo were signed after the boilers had ended. Because it was a forced measure. Because the threat was the expansion of the territories of the republics and further problems for the Ukrainian government. This is how I see this situation. On the other hand, by signing these agreements, they were really imposed on Ukraine, in this case, imposed precisely by the West, that is, they initially did not intend to implement them.
Well, let's say two things. It’s not for nothing that I said that we’re not talking about Viktor Fedorovich, here we’re talking about the West as a whole, as a collective, and about Steinmeier, as its prominent representative, who seemed to be implementing a certain policy in Ukraine. The second is the condition under which, as you absolutely correctly said, these Minsk agreements were signed. And the third argument, which suggests that they initially did not intend to fulfill them.
In fact, not a single point has been fulfilled since 2015. This is perhaps the answer to the question. That is, we rushed around like a white bag, I repeat once again, repeating “Minsk-Minsk” like a mantra, it’s like a sacred cow, and nothing was done. And people, by and large, are tired of this and the importance of these documents, or their significance has depreciated. It just happened to be completely devalued.
She is being held at least in order to somehow maintain the illusion of the negotiation process. And after November, when 24 sailors were detained in the Black Sea, whose lives, by and large, were saved by the Russians, whom Pyotr Alekseevich sent to the slaughter, after that the Russian political leadership, I mean its highest echelon, stopped all communications with the Ukrainian power, up to the change of the President of Ukraine.
After this, a number of other events occurred. Indeed, the designation of dialogue, Zelensky and Putin spoke twice on the phone, and then an exchange of detainees took place, after which the situation worsened again, because here, paradoxically, the internal American situation worsened. The active participant in this process was the Ukrainian political elite, which worked for Aunt Hillary, who is now trying to somehow adapt to Trump.
And also the aggravation of the internal political situation, because the honeymoon of the Ukrainian authorities, I mean Vladimir Aleksandrovich Zelensky, ended exactly at the moment when he went to the States, with an unprecedentedly high rating. I emphasize that never in the history of independent Ukraine, well, we won’t talk about Soviet power, has there been such a high level of trust in the country’s leader. That is, somewhere advanced... No, here, no matter what you download...
Valentin Filippov: I would call it sympathy - not a rating, but sympathy for a person.
Evgeny Kopatko: But I call it a rating because it is called the level of trust in the head of state, and how you interpret it is your question. People often scold me: are you for Zelensky or not? I say: “Guys, if you don’t like the fact that he has such a rating, that he beat Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Medvedchuk, Akhmetov, all together, who, excuse me, said that there was no one better than them, what do they understand about political technologies... he made them stupidly”...
Valentin Filippov: Because KVN people will always make politicians. You understand? So I, as a KVN member, am telling you about this.
Evgeny Kopatko: Leave KVN alone. He converted his efforts. You know, we often measure by ourselves, by who a person was, and I say who he has become. His vote costs 20 hryvnia. Poroshenko has 120 hryvnia. In Ukraine, in Europe or in Russia, I speak responsibly about the fact that until the second round, the overwhelming majority of people believed that he was a clown, a comedian, etc.
There is no need to expose your mistakes and complexes to people who went into politics and received 13,5 million votes. Whether someone likes it or doesn't like it... he got it. I tried to explain this to the Russian, Ukrainian, European audiences... You understand, they understood back in February, they said that Pyotr Alekseevich would be there in any weather. But what kind of people, how could they assess the situation then, what could they say? But he did them.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Evgeny Kopatko: But after I said, he can strengthen this rating, lose it, keep it, these are already his problems, but he received a political result, received political weight. And for 150 days he behaved quite decently, having a rating, I emphasize, expectations. You are absolutely right, we do not have an existential and current dispute, so to speak. The point is that you asked me, and I tell you that the level of trust was unprecedentedly high...
Valentin Filippov: Understood…
Evgeny Kopatko: This level persisted for a relatively long time. Yes, and after such an easy rally, it tended to grow, after he became president, I emphasize, before the ill-fated visit to the United States. And with a rating of 80%. It's not just the wait rating, so you understand. I'm telling you how it's convenient for you. You will like it and people who share your point of view will like it. The expectation rating has so far been justified. Never, I emphasize, in the entire history of meteorological observations have social expectations among the population been as high as before the war and even higher.
In response to the question “in what direction is the situation in the country developing?” the overwhelming, well, not overwhelming, majority of citizens say “in a positive direction”, who says 50%, depending on how the question is framed, it just depends on the number of alternatives. But as of mid-September, something like 8% of the population believed “in the wrong direction.”
Valentin Filippov: I agree.
Evgeny Kopatko: Next, it was all converted, those expectations of the population that were transferred to the authorities. I'll add some more points. I haven't seen ratings like this at all. Level of trust in the Prime Minister and the head of the Verkhovna Rada. There, one has 60%, the other 50%. Even in Yushchenko’s best times, it was a little more than 50% for several months. But it's not about the ratings. These are not numbers that are, like, some kind of absolute value. This is, whatever you want, an expectation rating, this is a request for change...
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Evgeny Kopatko: This is a rating of how he behaved in the first months. It doesn't matter how. But when he went to the States, with this unprecedentedly high rating, they believed that he would concrete it and cement it after his meeting with Trump. But then a terrible mistake occurred. He received, of course, the first such blow, a very strong, sensitive one. Please note, such derogatory, humiliating insults to the address are not the Russian press there, not the Ukrainian opposition, not some well-wishers, but the British press about Monica, about some unflattering statements about the President of Ukraine.
I will say more that even here in Russia, many, not that politicians who sympathize with him, somehow did not humiliate a person like that, you know?
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Evgeny Kopatko: They somehow saved face in the public discussion. I'm just stating how it really is. On the other hand, do you understand where this request comes from? This is a request for something that in Russia, too, is not clear about this. That is, it turned out that there was a kind of Stockholm syndrome, we heard some, there, complimentary phrases, well, streamlined, slightly complimentary towards Russia, and we thought that we could negotiate with them. I do not think so. I believe that this political cycle of 13–19 ended with a change of power. Now a new political cycle begins, named after Zelensky. And in this case, what happened during these 150 or how many days, consider for yourself... it turns out that everyone was driven under a bench or beyond Mozhaisk, as they say...
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Evgeny Kopatko: And only upon returning from the States, look how everyone jumped out of the cracks: Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, and oppositionists of various stripes. This is what happened. And the criticism began. There, Maidan “we collect - we don’t collect”, something else there, “we object - we don’t object”….
What, in general, is the magic of these big numbers? You know, I think that with such a rating it’s not worth looking at public opinion at all. And they will fear you and respect you even more.
Valentin Filippov: Well, that’s if you have some kind of strength, some kind of club in your hands, something else...
Evgeny Kopatko: The power of support, the power of the fact that even the security forces, even Avakov, who was in close contact with Poroshenko, at one point distanced themselves from him. He went to America, assumed some powers, and became Minister of the Interior. But this is also for the time being...
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Evgeny Kopatko: But he pulled away from Pyotr Alekseevich. And so on and so forth. So what are we actually talking about now? That now there is such a phenomenon, such a situation has developed in the country. You see, when they told me, how can you imagine that a comedian, or someone else, will be the president of Kvartal 95? Everything was presented. And Macron, and Merkel, and Trump, and Putin. What other arguments are needed? This is the new reality. Can or can't this happen? It happened. All. We continue to work and see how the situation develops. Will he lose, maintain his position or increase.
Valentin Filippov: I understand, but he doesn’t have a clear answer to any question. But more than that, he doesn’t have sociologists there either. That is, he sells the land, then he privatizes all enterprises, then... Everything that the people hate, he offers everything, and he loudly declares it, not in secret.
Evgeny Kopatko: Stop. Let's now walk along Deribasovskaya gradually. So I will say one thing: firstly, not everything. They are waiting to board - Pashinsky has already been accepted. Wait, well...
Valentin Filippov: РЇ СЃРѕРіР »Р ° сен.
Evgeny Kopatko: As for Avakov, Poroshenko, Turchinov and some other defendants - yes, people are nervous about this - yes, he promised an exchange - it happened. Further.
What has he done in the first hundred-plus days... you asked me a specific question: “What has society written down as his assets?” Exchange of detained persons. Initiatives in the West. France, Germany, but before traveling to the States. With a caveat. The key thing, in first place, by a large margin, is the change of parliament. Do you understand? When the parliament was changed by 80%, that is, it was actually a big asset for him. Here you go.
Valentin Filippov: The abolition of immunity is a very big plus.
Evgeny Kopatko: Well, you name it yourself. You say that there... you see, if you are a KVN player, then form has triumphed over content. There is content here, but society accepts it, and society wants to see it. I'm not making value judgments right now. I say it accepts it. And they obviously measure... Sociology is normal across the country, it can be done in a day, it can even be done online. At one time I did the results of the debates between Yushchenko and Yanukovych, how did people know. And not just me.
Valentin Filippov: Who won then?
Evgeny Kopatko: Yanukovych won by a wide margin, so you understand.
Valentin Filippov: Did he have an earphone? Was everything suggested to him for him?
Evgeny Kopatko: No, what does this have to do with it? It’s just, well, there was a different energy, I’m speaking as an example. It doesn’t matter whether he had mugs there, whether he had headphones or a built-in chip. Doesn't matter. It is important that there was a result. And regarding this situation, that... they got the result. Now he is trying to enter the public sphere, he is trying to organize a dialogue among society. This is the marathon he did. We'll see what sociologists or marketers who do this have to say. Not just one company. You see, well, you can rig it, of course. But what's the point?
Valentin Filippov: Zelensky managed to say something like the following: “if Russia disrupts the withdrawal of troops, then there will be no Normandy format.” That is, by and large, he turned everything upside down, since it was he who wanted the Normandy format. Will it happen or won't it happen, what do you think? How is the Russian Federation set up?
Evgeny Kopatko: I believe, you know, it wasn’t he who wanted it, the West wanted it. This phrase of Donald Trump to Zelensky, these shots that circulated around the world for several days, were remembered by everyone, even those who are not interested in politics, when he said: “You need to negotiate with Putin.” After the leak of the telephone conversation, well, the essence of the telephone conversation, its passages towards Merkel and Macron, well, somehow the Germans set themselves a big fat bird against this background. Do you understand?
I believe that it would also be beneficial for them if Zelensky communicated with Putin. But about the Normandy format. Sergei Lavrov said quite clearly “concrete steps - concrete conversation.” I think that the position is quite clearly defined. That is, they will not meet just like that. Why won't they take place in the coming weeks? Because there will be no changes to the Constitution, there will be no significant and significant steps that will become the motive and basis for Russia, the President of Russia, let’s say, to meet with the President of Ukraine, even within the framework of the format.
That is, for this there must be a topic that is discussed. To do this, there must be tasks that have been solved, initiatives that have been implemented. In this case, what else could it be? Well, great exchange. This is something that can be done relatively quickly. Well, that is, if from the point of view of common sense, it is impossible to change the Constitution, it is impossible to hold elections, it is impossible to do anything else...
Valentin Filippov: Exchange is possible.
Evgeny Kopatko: And an exchange can be made. Here. This can be the basis of a conversation. But as far as I understand, the point is not even that the nationalists there are scaring them with the Maidan. Here you and I, people who have been alive for a long time, understand the processes of the 4th and 14th years, we remember that in addition to the internal support of the first and second Maidans, there was colossal external support.
Now, the situation is worse, significantly, because they have fallen into the American trap. One might say, a good wording is “American stretch”, between Democrats and Republicans. Because the elite that was in power until 19, they, in general, killed Trump with money, politically, and image, let’s say, or discredited him, well, killed him politically, I mean. Here. Americans do not forgive such things. On the other hand, such contradictions were revealed there with Biden, with this Volker, it turns out that he was also interested in money there.
Valentin Filippov: As it “turns out”...
Evgeny Kopatko: Yes. It turns out that everything about them was interesting. And now there is such a serious mess there, if I may say so. Well, I wonder if it will blow everyone up, this information, or they will drown it, or they won’t send it all, I don’t know. But in this case, Zelensky said: “Guys, I’m not involved, I’m also a recipient of information.” Now this is where it gets interesting.
If Trump wins, that’s one story; if the Democrats win, that’s another story. And it won’t work, excuse my slang, but, by the way, it’s the most appropriate. Or “slip between the raindrops,” which is what politicians like to use in this case. Therefore, the question arises: “will there be some kind of dialogue?” I believe that if there is such a relationship, there will be a conversation about dialogue. I don’t think that Russia is now in the mood to create an image advantage. Sorry, this is an image situation – Zelensky met with Putin.
Now they spin it any way they want, in the process it’s the same long interview, non-stop. Well, let's see if the public liked it or not. Even the repeated questions, there were things that were really mutually exclusive, but the key question was whether or not there would be a Normandy format. Either they say “our fault” or “the fault of the Russians”, or because of someone else. In fact, if you really look at the situation, then of course it now depends on Ukraine. We outlined the situation. In Donetsk, division did not happen twice. The question “OSCE members, whose step was not taken?” That's it, the question here is clear. Here it is no longer possible that it was the Russians who broke it, that is, the DPR did something wrong there.
Valentin Filippov: Well, inside it says that the Russians broke it.
Evgeny Kopatko: Wait, they can say whatever they want. But there are some people who will talk to them there. And the question is, when they ask Vladimir Vladimirovich a question, Macron or Merkel, people are also sitting there.
And one more very important point: if there is a Normandy format, what will be discussed there? Prystaiko’s statements regarding the fact that he may no longer exist, that he may not work. If it has not been observed for more than four years, or five, I’m already confused here, years, then the question is, well, the question is rhetorical, “then why is it needed?” If they refuse, then this is already a refusal from Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: Do you think enough people in Ukraine already agree to simply, without conditions, let go of Donbass? It’s simple, without negotiations, so that the war stops. No such moods?
Evgeny Kopatko: Well, to be honest, they have been around since '14. Because it's an awkward question for them, it's a question you don't get in sociology. This is a question that politicians will not answer directly for you. But I received direct statements from Ukrainian deputies, saying that we, in my own words, “we would unfasten the Donbass,” or break away. They received a big geopolitical prize, and Donbass has now become a problem for Russia.
Because the most successful region of Ukraine, excuse me, accounts for almost 25% of Donetsk-Lugansk GDP exports. That is, they are stupidly killing Donbass. A migration that has not happened since the war, when several million people left the territory, on both sides. The territory is split, a little more than a third is under the control of the DPR-LPR. A lot of problems that have been created for a huge number of people and the lives that have been disrupted have been created for decades. After the war, the restored Donbass is very successful, Donetsk is a very beautiful city. Many cities, relatively prosperous, were, I emphasize, by the standards of Ukraine they were generally quite decent, despite all the problems, I say again, I am not idealizing...
And now this Donbass is being killed. Do you understand? They kill him. And at the same time, Russia is suffering image losses. At the same time, the population of Donbass are outcasts, and they have a lot of problems. But, answering the question “Donbass is not needed?” Why three million, or whatever, maybe the census that is currently taking place in the DPR will give this result? The question is different. What will people from Donbass do? They, the elite, will not do anything. On the other hand, I already told you, when the entire elite left Donetsk, lives either abroad in the near abroad or in Kiev, including Akhmetov, there, Kolesnikov, well, those who, there, Taruta, everyone who was there, were, and for several years now they have been living separately, the elite and the people. Well, these things won’t go without consequences either. Do you understand?
Valentin Filippov: Well, this is no longer their elite. This is no longer the DPR, this is...
Evgeny Kopatko: There you need to solve problems, first of all, economic and security. First of all, we need to provide people with clarity about where to move next. People so far, most people in power do not have an answer to this question. But another reality emerged. I'll explain what we're talking about. Everyone is talking about passporting. I'll ask this rhetorical question. They say that several tens of thousands of passports have been distributed. And there is a queue. Here we get it. First of all, people from law enforcement agencies receive passports, right? Government bodies, well, in addition to the civilian population, well, citizens who are not involved in business. Here in the problem it is asked, here will be the process of unification. For myself, I cannot get an answer to the question “Russian citizens will stand on the front line.” Or no, wait, they are already standing. Citizens of Russia. Newly minted, if so, received Russian citizenship in the next few months. Not some “tourists”, as they call them, volunteers and so on.
Valentin Filippov: Yes. I understand.
Evgeny Kopatko: Citizens of Donbass, citizens of Russia.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Evgeny Kopatko: Now this is what it sounds like. It already sounds exactly like it is. How will Russia approach the protection of its citizens?
Valentin Filippov: I am also interested in this question. I have already expressed the idea that in fact, with every death or injury of our military, Donetsk, who managed to obtain Russian passports, it is necessary to write a statement to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, that on the territory of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military attempted to kill two or more especially dangerous persons in the way of Russian citizens. And let Russia do something.
Evgeny Kopatko: Well, the question is probably not to do something, but to solve problems effectively. Do you understand? There is no need to do “something”; the request is not for “doing something”. The request is based on the fact that some action is needed, well, that is, you also described it as I did. But, you know, for the people who are there, this, you know, is not the best thing that we say. On the other hand, this is quite a conversation for those who really, if you look at the situation, really try to look from the outside, because people who are at risk for their lives find it difficult for them to explain what we are talking about.
And then a completely reasonable question arises: “What will happen next?” I don't know.
Valentin Filippov: Well, you know. Thank God there are heads of republics. Here's to the topic of reading the Steinmeier formula. After Ukraine signed the Steinmeier formula, Ukraine said something of its own on this topic, that it didn’t mean anything and I don’t remember what it was. And Pasechnik, together with Pushilin, made a joint statement that the signing of the Steinmeier formula means that Ukraine has recognized the sovereignty of our republics, and we continue integration into Russia. So, in my opinion, this is an official statement by the leadership of the republics.
Evgeny Kopatko: When we talk to you, here we are talking to you personally, I agree. But we live, we comply with the Minsk agreements. And under what legislation is this? People are waiting for some kind of clarity, because uncertainty breeds doubt, doubt breeds uncertainty, uncertainty breeds disappointment, and so on. Do you understand what this thing is?
If only everything were so linear or if it concerned another planet that we read about in books. And when it concerns millions of people? By the way, 13% of the population of Crimea comes from refugees from Donbass, two hundred thousand more, according to the 15 census. Maybe someone had a good time there, someone left. Maybe someone got a job there. But on the other hand, many people left Donbass not of their own free will. But these are those who ended up in Crimea and who are quite comfortable, let’s say, relatively. And what about the more than a million people who live on the territory of Ukraine, whom they call “internally displaced”? And so on and so forth.
And what about the difficulties faced by people who are now waiting to receive passports, with this border crossing? And 90, there, 180 days. For the residents of Donbass, until some time, there were fewer problems with Donetsk registration than for other Ukrainians who were in Russia.
Well, listen, there are a lot of questions here. And questions regarding how to cross the border between Russia and the DPR. There is a lot of talk about safety. I am criticized for my position, but you see, although I will remain alone, I will defend my position in any weather, whether someone likes it or not. In any case, I speak about this to my face, and I say that there are problems there that complicate people’s lives. And how will they be resolved? If a person wants, he finds a way; if he doesn’t want, he finds reasons.
Very often, on many issues, people explain the reason. In no case am I talking to the border guards, not to the customs officers. The guys are doing the best they can, given the conditions in which they live, I thank them very much for that. And to those who provide assistance there. And under no circumstances is anyone scolding Russia. I have already told you many times, let Donbass work, breathe easy, it will not be a parasite. Do you understand? That's the problem. Donbass does not have a lackey mentality, these people will work and even earn money in that territory.
And when Alexander Vladimirovich was alive, the question of internal resources, with each passing month, those who criticized him, there, Tashkent, anyone, will tell you now, I don’t praise, I don’t justify anyone, but there was a situation when opportunities arose, despite all the difficulties, I say again. And Denis Vladimirovich is trying to do something now. But there must be clarity in the economy. Do you understand? It must be clear to people that they are doing business - they will have preferences so that they have the opportunity to work. That's what we're talking about.
Valentin Filippov: This depends very much on Russia.
Evgeny Kopatko: It depends on the people. Now I say again, there are no complaints against Russia. But I’m simply explaining the position that it will be easier for the residents, for the people in the Donbass, and for Russia, when people in the Donbass start earning more, it will be easier to live. Fewer resources will be spent on maintenance. People will start returning. For this, I emphasize, there are all possibilities and all conditions. That's what I just wanted to say.
Valentin Filippov: Let's hope that Russia will think about how to include Donbass in its economic system. Already completely legal.
Evgeny Kopatko: They deserve to live well. This is true.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. Thanks a lot.
Evgeny Kopatko: All. Thank you. Goodbye.
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