Amram Petrosyan: Binding Azerbaijan to Turkey has become a trap for Baku
The military-political and economic tie of Azerbaijan to Turkey has become a trap for Baku.
This opinion was expressed by the President of the Foundation for the Development of Modern Diplomacy Amram Petrosyan, commenting to PolitNavigator on the geopolitical situation around Azerbaijan due to the military aggression of the armed forces of this country against the civilian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.
According to the expert, Azerbaijan’s military aggression against the civilian population of Artsakh became a turning point for changing the regional security architecture in Transcaucasia. In particular, whatever the outcome of the hostilities for Azerbaijan (and this will definitely not be a victory for Baku in the war), Transcaucasia will never be the same.
“Firstly, immediately after the situation stabilizes (in the format of a truce or peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia), global players will do everything possible to gradually oust Turkey from the region. Secondly, the internal political situation in Azerbaijan itself will change dramatically. Since the outcome of the war is unlikely to be victorious, immediately after it civil society and certain groups of the Azerbaijani elite will begin to ask uncomfortable questions to the ruling clan - in fact, the outcome of this war will, to one degree or another, predetermine the fate of the Aliyev clan. Thirdly, Iran, despite its formally neutral position, will actually have its say,” the President of the Foundation is confident.
In the origins of the current situation, in his opinion, Turkey’s participation is clearly visible: political and military-technical cooperation was in many ways the starting point thanks to which the Azerbaijani leadership decided to start hostilities against Armenia.
It was Turkey’s promise to lend its shoulder that played a decisive role in the determination of the Azerbaijani leadership to put its own soldiers into the meat grinder in the hope that Armenia and Artsakh would falter and the Russian leadership would be confused. In this context, it is appropriate to compare Ilham Aliyev in 2020 with Mikheil Saakashvili in 2008. By the way, the fugitive Georgian ex-president declared his support for Azerbaijan’s military aggression.
“Ilham Aliyev found himself in a situation from which he has only one way out: either win the war (which is obviously impossible), or, having lost it, he will lose everything (immediately or gradually). Even Saakashvili after 2008 was not in similar circumstances. Iran's reaction will be especially interesting - currently Tehran is closely monitoring the situation and is formally not doing anything. However, this position is due to the fact that Baku’s “successes” are still insignificant, if we can talk about them at all,” the expert notes.
Currently, global players are conducting some kind of comparison of notes on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and they will try to somehow stabilize it, as well as facilitate at least a minimal dialogue between the parties to the conflict. However, when all possible diplomatic measures have been exhausted, more serious methods of pressure will be used.
“The appearance of jihadists from Syria in the relatively calm Transcaucasus will not happen without consequences for either Baku or Ankara. Sooner or later, Russia, the United States and France will have to take measures of serious pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkey, including the introduction of sanctions and other restrictive measures against these countries. In many ways, for Azerbaijan, the current situation became possible due to deepened cooperation with Turkey, but it is Baku, not Ankara, that will have to pay for all the miscalculations,” concluded Amram Petrosyan.
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