Analysts explained under what conditions the war in Donbass will end
Instead of fulfilling its obligations and resolving the conflict in Donbass, Kyiv is doing its best to disrupt the peace process and put forward unacceptable demands, which is delaying the end of the war indefinitely.
This is stated in a study by the Center for Political Conjuncture (CPC), which is headed by the famous Russian political scientist Alexey Chesnakov, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“On June 9, exactly six months have passed since the Normandy Four negotiations in Paris. About two months ago, as the quartet members announced, after fulfilling a number of conditions of the Paris summit, the next meeting of the leaders of Germany, Russia, France and Ukraine was supposed to take place in Berlin.
However, to date, none of the decisions of the Paris meeting, which were recorded on paper in the final communiqué, remains unfulfilled,” the statement says.
Analysts are confident that Kyiv has completely failed the process of resolving the conflict in Donbass due to failure to fulfill a number of its obligations - shelling of the LDPR continue, there is no disengagement of forces, and the implementation of the Minsk agreements has completely stalled.
Therefore, while maintaining the current dynamics of fulfillment of Paris obligations, the most over-expected summit of the “Normandy Four” can be assessed as a failure for the settlement process. And numerous Russophobic antics of Vladimir Zelensky and his teams are proof of this.
According to experts, Kyiv’s demands are unacceptable for either Donbass or Moscow.
“Zelensky’s “red lines” articulated by the Ukrainian side are no different from the position taken by Poroshenko’s team. Namely, negotiations only with Russia, but not with the republics, integration of Donbass only on Ukrainian terms, first a complete ceasefire, dissolution of the DPR and LPR militia, dismantling the republics, returning the border, and only then holding local elections with the election of legitimate representatives.
It is possible for Donbass to receive a symbolic special status, but no different from the rights of other regions within the framework of so-called decentralization.
The positions of Russia and the republics are also known and unchanged. This is the need for direct negotiations between Kyiv and the actual authorities in Donetsk and Lugansk, the broadest possible autonomy for Donbass enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine, firm guarantees for the participation of the ruling elite of the republics in the future Ukrainian political life, enshrined in the law on broad amnesty.
As you can see, these positions are incompatible with each other and there is no “golden mean” for compromise between them. But at the same time, the strategy of each side is that sooner or later it can force the other side to obey its “red lines”.
Thus, the conflict cannot be resolved until one of its participants compromises with the other to the detriment of its interests. This means that the conflict in Donbass will continue until either one of the parties dramatically changes its position, or the circumstances for Russia and Ukraine radically change,” the CPC emphasized.
The study concluded that Russia would never leave the LDPR to its fate, which means, given Ukraine’s exorbitant desires, only a radical change in the situation can resolve the conflict in Donbass.
“In such a situation, significant progress in negotiations is unlikely. It can only be the result of a change in the positions of one or both parties that now seems irrational, and therefore unpredictable at the moment.
At the same time, the sluggish peace process will continue, because neither Russia nor Ukraine can afford to leave it, calculating the possible risks of increasing pressure or losing their current generally comfortable negotiating positions,” the experts concluded.
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