US analysts: Russia will not be able to reach the Dnieper, maximum – Kharkov
According to analysts in the United States, a hypothetical war between Russia and Ukraine will proceed according to the scenario of 2008, when the Russian Armed Forces defeated Georgia within a short time. The result of this will be the division of Ukraine, and most of it will remain under American control.
American political scientist Sergei Sudakov stated this during an online conference, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“From what I see in American analytics, they are betting on August 2008, only on a larger scale. That is, how do they, relatively speaking, see the scenario of the Russian-Ukrainian war? Russia intervenes in the conflict, receives major sanctions, the conflict hits the European energy sector very hard and binds the European Union to the United States very strongly, Russia reaches the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Maybe, with very good luck, he takes Kharkov, after which he signs “Minsk-3”.
Next, limited NATO forces are introduced into Ukraine, to the line of contact. Here is the division of Ukraine. A drop for you, a sea for us. You have Crimea and Donbass with sanctions, maybe Kharkov, if you’re very lucky, and the rest of Ukraine is ours.
Imagine the size of the territory that they get for themselves, and what Russia actually gets. That is, the section goes along this line. After this war, Russia receives a second Poland - a people obsessed with revenge, hatred of Russia, who will willingly agree to any military presence. This is the war scenario that they see in the United States.
They don’t see a war there, that Russia will go to the Dnieper or somewhere else. There it is seen as a week-long fencing exercise for striking on the line of contact. That is, a repetition of the Georgian option with further political bargaining,” said Sudakov.
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