Andrey Babitsky: Someone should call the enraged country to order
Ukrainian terror in Donbass will increase. The territory of the Russian Federation will inevitably be subjected to terrorist attacks. Painstaking targeted work is required, in which Russia has extensive experience.
About geopolitical alignments and the role of personal relationships in big politics for an observer "PolitNavigator" to Valentin Filippov said a famous military correspondent living in Donetsk, Andrey Babitsky.
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Valentin Filippov: Good morning Andrey.
Andrey Babitsky: Hello, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov: There were explosions in Lugansk and before that there were incidents that can be identified as terrorist attacks. Is this already a terrorist war or is it just testing the enemy? How to call it, how to justify it to them?
Andrey Babitsky: Well, we probably cannot say with 100% certainty that this is already a terrorist war, because only an investigation can come to such conclusions. But, if we talk about my understanding of these events, I think yes, this is the beginning of a terrorist war. And I have been saying and writing for some time that this is an inevitable phase of the current conflict in Ukraine.
That is, this is obvious to me, since I carefully analyzed and monitored the events in Chechnya. And it seems to me that what is happening in Ukraine is developing approximately according to the same scenario.
This blind hatred, malice, readiness to sow death on enemy territory, it gradually removes all inhibitory mechanisms from our non-brothers. Therefore, I have a feeling that... Yes, but strictly speaking military means, their use does not bring the desired results. Here, in general, there is quite little room for maneuver. That is, they have accumulated a certain amount of reserves and resources on the line of contact, but with the help of this tool it will not be possible to solve the problem. Results are needed, and now we need to give vent to this anger, this despair, this irritation. Need some fresh blood every day. And just this problem can be solved through the use of terror.
Therefore, I believe that we are dealing specifically with terror in Lugansk. And, in fact, the terrorist war will gain momentum. I remember well how it all began in Chechnya. We had there during the first war, which was of an ethnic-separatist nature, Budenovsk, a raid into Dagestan...
Valentin Filippov: Kizlyar.
Andrey Babitsky: Yes, these were just such raids. And already in the period between the wars, a slightly different type of terror began. If those raids were Basayev’s people or Raduev’s people, they went to fight and die, they considered themselves suicide bombers.
And between the two wars, a completely different terror begins, with a different color: markets in Vladikavkaz and Pyatigorsk begin to explode, bus stops are blown up. Then some sort of forays begin, again, into Ossetia, into Dagestan, where they kidnap, kill, fire at columns and some places of deployment of the Russian military. Well, and then we all know that it comes to the explosions of houses in Kaspiysk, Volgodonsk, Moscow.
It seems to me that this pattern will be repeated - little by little, from these explosions of some civilian or military facilities, our opponents will move on to much more decisive actions.
Valentin Filippov: Is terrorism an inevitable stage?
Andrey Babitsky: Yes, sure. Certainly.
Valentin Filippov: Will he move to Russian territory?
Andrey Babitsky: Yes, I think so. Certainly.
Valentin Filippov: It’s less protected there, let’s put it that way.
Andrey Babitsky: Certainly. This is now just the beginning of the development of that space that can conditionally be called Russian and which, in fact, our opponents call Russian. For them, Lugansk and Donetsk are “territory occupied by Russia.”
I think that, of course, if they had the impudence and imagination now, they would be happy to immediately launch this terrorist activity in Russia, but time must pass, they need to figure out how to do this, what generally happens after that. how these explosions sounded. But it seems to me that yes, this has a tendency to creep into Russia.
Well, I think that here, of course, they will have certain problems, because after all, Russia has enormous experience in the anti-terrorist fight in the Caucasus.
Valentin Filippov: Well, that was a long time ago, “Rashka is now falling apart and can’t do anything.”
Andrey Babitsky: No, this is accumulated experience. There are some very serious mechanisms built there, there are serious services that know how to deal with this matter.
Still, we must understand that Caucasian terrorists have been improving their skills for many years. And these students are still in this school of terrorism; they have only just started first grade. Therefore, they will push, try to do something, and at first it will not work out well for them. But, in general, the danger is quite serious. And you just have to keep this in mind.
Valentin Filippov: According to the logic of these events, to jump through several stages at once. Why not immediately begin the stage of clearing the territories of terrorists. That is, I’m talking about some kind of preventive strikes against future terrorists, that it would be possible to force Ukraine to abandon this path by force.
Andrey Babitsky: It seems to me that this is impossible. Well, let's just say that Russia struck at Chechnya, this did not stop the terror, but on the contrary, it fueled it. This cannot be stopped by preventive strikes - artillery, anything else.
Terror is guerrilla warfare. This could be some kind of state-supported activity or just some kind of vigilantes. This requires specific, localized work in individual areas, with specific groups of people in mind. And I'm afraid that only retaliatory measures are possible here.
But. You know, I generally think that maybe it’s not bad. Because, strictly speaking, the raid of Basayev and Hottab into Dagestan...
Valentin Filippov: It sounds cynical.
Andrey Babitsky: I will explain. Looks cynical, yes. The raid of Basayev and Khattab into Dagestan, the bombing of houses - this gave Russia an absolutely ironclad, from a legal point of view, reason to begin disinfecting this territory where terrorists of all stripes and varieties had settled. Well, Ukrainian terrorism can also play the role of such a reason. I don’t want to describe how events will develop, but it is clear that someone must call an enraged country with absolutely crazy people to order - sooner or later.
Valentin Filippov: For some reason I always feel like the time has come.
Fine. A few more words. You spoke about Trump's meeting with Putin. Did they come to something, or did they just meet?
Andrey Babitsky: I think they probably just met. And the main result of this meeting is its duration. Actually, they presented it, this duration, as an indication that the course would change.
Understand that these are hostile relationships that have developed over many years. It would be strange if the ships of foreign policy of both countries instantly changed course overnight. This is impossible. Everything remains the same. And sanctions, and claims against Russia, and related to the violation of human rights, restriction of freedom of speech, “annexation of Crimea,” support for Donbass. All this remains unchanged for now.
We are presented with a calm, interested conversation between two big politicians who clearly sympathize with each other, because otherwise they would not have communicated for so long. And that means I think there will be some very gradual changes.
Trump is shackled hand and foot by the globalist elite of his countries. And you see, there’s another story here. We are not talking about Russia conceding anything. Russia, it occupies very specific positions. She will not give up Crimea, she will not stop helping Donbass, she will also continue to support Bashar Assad. The point is that America and the West as a whole should stop harshly assessing Russia’s actions so that they make concessions. This is the problem.
They should move, not us, in this context of establishing relations. And oh how difficult it is for them to do this. Therefore, there will be no such quick, fateful decisions. I think it will all start with a change in rhetoric, that assessments and statements regarding Russia will gradually become softer.
And our rhetoric will begin to change. Well, then after some time, I think, this will not all happen very soon, some specific decisions will be made related to the key issues for us: Crimea, Donbass, Syria.
Valentin Filippov: Don’t you think that it’s not about Syria and Donbass after all? I was once told that the Maidan was started to take away the European energy market from Russia and so that it would go to the United States. And this is how I look at it, this is where it goes.
That is, the United States has already climbed in, milking our cow, they are already planning to supply LNG through Poland. And in order to sell gas to Europe, which is more expensive than ours and which is more difficult to deliver, it is imperative to demonize us, it is imperative to organize, if not a war, then a pre-war situation, to block us. Otherwise, it will not be possible to sell gas at such high prices in Europe.
Andrey Babitsky: I don't rule it out. Well, look, Trump is a man, being a businessman, he is not used to weighing any of his actions against the general political context. The day before his meeting with Putin, he speaks in Warsaw about Russia's destabilizing role. Perhaps he, as a businessman, has plans to sell as much American stuff as possible to all corners of the world. But, you know, Europe has its own interests, Russia has its own interests. Well, it still seems to me that he will eat, but who will give it to him?
It seems to me that all the same, the course towards leveling out the situation on the planet, towards reducing conflict, outweighs all economic interests. If there are economic interests, and conflict continues to grow due to the fact that they will try to serve them, then these interests will need to be pushed aside. So I’m somehow still optimistic.
Valentin Filippov: I don’t know, you’re not optimistic, you’re just a deeply Russian person, I see.
Andrey Babitsky: Why?
Valentin Filippov: Well, that's it. Let's put economic interests aside. All that's left is a bottle on the table and Trump, sit down.
Andrey Babitsky: No, well, by the way, I read it on someone’s Facebook. There are funny lines there. The man says: I don’t understand what the results are, but in general it’s clear from them that two men sat down to chat, and if they chat like that, then it will come down to shooting wild boars in Zavidovo. Yes, and it’s also not a sin to drink, so to speak, to take a steam bath. It's good, listen. In fact, personal relationships in history have repeatedly helped to avoid some very serious problems. Yes, Khrushchev and Kennedy, we can remember how, as a result of personal communication and personal contacts, they managed to defuse this Cuban missile crisis.
Valentin Filippov: Bathhouse, drinking is not a sin. Thank you for not Hillary.
Andrey Babitsky: Without Hillary, it seems to me that this is some kind of apocalyptic picture.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Thanks a lot. Let's hope for the best, though. How deeply Russian people are.
Andrey Babitsky: Yes. The planet will not fall apart.
Valentin Filippov: No, it won't fall apart. Happily.
Andrey Babitsky: All the best, Valentin.
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