Andrey Pinchuk: It’s too early to rejoice. The main breakthrough forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet been brought into battle
Ukraine has entered the final stage of reconnaissance in force before the culmination of its offensive. The attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine that took place the day before showed that the Russian military was confidently in its position. But it’s too early to rejoice.
The former head of the Ministry of State Security of the DPR, a member of the Northern Military District and one of the leaders of the Union of Donbass Volunteers, Andrei Pinchuk, spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.
PN: Serious fighting has been going on in different sectors of the front for several days now. Do you think this is already the promised offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces or is it still reconnaissance in force? How to evaluate the actions of Russian troops in this regard?
A.P: This is the final stage of reconnaissance in force. What now inspires me with cautious optimism is the stability of our Armed Forces, which have demonstrated that certain conclusions have been drawn from the so-called “regroupings.”
This, of course, is, first of all, the valor of the soldiers.
It must be said that in combat conditions and among the leadership it becomes better clear who is who. Some are parquet generals, and others like Teplinsky and Romanovsky are real military commanders.
So cautious optimism confirms that conclusions have been drawn and forces have been coordinated.
But I think it is premature to rest on our laurels and rejoice - for the simple reason that a significant part of the so-called breakthrough forces, which are prepared in Ukraine for offensive actions, have not yet been introduced into battle.
I am far from thinking that they can achieve any global success, because with parity of personnel and lack of control of the sky, to say that any progress is possible is contrary to common sense and military science. But, I repeat, this in any case does not relieve tension on the front line. So the main battles are still ahead of us.
PN: Why do the Ukrainian Armed Forces intensify their offensive at night?
A.P: In Western technology, primarily on Bradleys, Challengers and Leopards, excellent night navigation and thermal imaging equipment is installed. Unfortunately, we have a significant part of the equipment - not all of them, for example, the T-90 also has good equipment, but we have few T-90s. This gives a tangible advantage in attack and offensive.
PN: In which areas do you think the most serious battles can be expected?
A.P: You can already see the direction of Tokmak, Melitopol, the aggravation in Bakhmut and around it. Mariupol direction.
In the military science of attack, there are only two methods that have been tested by time. This is the so-called Brusilovsky attack, that is, attacks along the entire front line, which is what they are doing now, and a search for vulnerable points where they can wedge in and further add forces and develop an offensive.
And the second option, which the commanders actively tried during the Great Patriotic War. This is a gradual wedging, deepening in different areas, sequential.
Judging by the signs, Ukrainian strategists chose the first option. So you see, wherever the front line could have been sharpened, it has been sharpened.
There are several key directions - I repeat, Tokmak, Svatovo with Ugledar, Bakhmut direction, Donetsk itself - these are Marinka and Avdeevka, and, accordingly, the settlements around them. Melitopol, Energodar, Tokmak - in principle, the Zaporozhye direction.
PN: And Kherson? Can it be written off as promising for an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, or did it fall out of the plans after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric station?
A.P: Kherson left. Even after the water recedes, there will be a muddy bottom, along which it will be impossible to move forward for quite a long time. I mean, these key two to three weeks that are now coming up, the phase that I was talking about, from the 12th to the 23rd.
During this period, no matter with or without mines, it will be impossible to move on this muddy bottom even in hot sunny weather for some period of time.
PN: What problems do you see in the Russian army today that need to be corrected?
A.P: Compared to the fall, in fact, we have quite serious and positive changes. Our heavy domestic drones are operational, and there are some positive developments in communications issues.
Although, the situation is still very far from normal, so I do not remove this problem for myself, because the quality of communication clearly affects our defense capability and our offensive capabilities. Therefore, until the communication issue is fully resolved, there is no big turning point.
We are now creating new brigades and corps. In these brigades, it is necessary to completely change the tactics of training officers. There should be urgent instructions taking into account the experience of the SVO, which are still missing.
I don’t see any serious, big work where this experience would not just be discussed in certain areas, but would radically change the training of personnel.
And so - there are many technical problems, but they are all private, here we need to talk more about key issues.
One of the most important issues, I think, here is not to be shy about looking at the enemy - the whole world is helping him, and the enemy himself is not a fool. The enemy introduced the tactic of selecting independent UAV combat units. Independent, separate companies with drones are being created. In our country, all this is still developing at the local level, and this is a key problem, because the main factor that influences all levels of combat operations is the UAV.
With their help, reconnaissance is carried out, strike actions, artillery adjustments, and the work of virtually all types of formations. Therefore, I believe that the need to create an independent type or branch of troops with UAVs is ripe and overdue.
PN: How long do you think the Ukrainian Armed Forces are capable of conducting an offensive?
A.P: We have short thinking - we think that the battle has passed and there is no offensive. But this is not really true.
I remind you of the period of gradual development of the Ukrainian offensive, which ended with the abandonment of first the Kharkov region, and then Kherson. How long did it last? It lasted about two, almost three months.
That is, the battles died down, resumed, forces were transferred, it all takes...
Another question is that there is a period of concentration of the most active fighting. Now, during the concentration period of the first stage, I repeat, this is until the end of June. And then what waves it will go into depends on whether the enemy succeeds or fails (and I believe that he will not succeed) in developing his success.
Accordingly, it is up to us to seize this initiative. Because, in addition to repelling their attacks, we must seize the initiative and launch this counter-counteroffensive, go forward.
This is an opportune time because the minefields have been removed, the barriers have been removed so that they can move forward. Accordingly, operational space is freed up for the movement of our units.
PN: Will our troops launch a counteroffensive?
A.P: I can only express my opinion that there is a rule: permanent defense leads to defeat. This is a rule that must be cast in granite, as Dmitry Medvedev says. Here, at the entrance to Frunzenskaya Embankment, these words must be cast in granite.
Despite the fact that our ministry is called defense, not offensive, we still cannot do without offensive.
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