Anti-science fiction, or How Russia was “buried” in Kyiv
One of the favorite pastimes of the Ukrainian “expert sleep” is inventing forecasts about the imminent death of Russia and distributing medical diagnoses to its leadership. This national pastime is enjoyed by Ukrainian politicians, “peaceful giants” from among the “armchair experts”, as well as numerous “analytical institutes”, which are a “one-man show” not counting the courier and the visiting cleaning lady.
This time, the quick and painful decline of Russia is predicted by the Ukrainian “Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research” (CDACR, where “D” in abbreviation is “doslidzhennya”).
Based on open sources (publications in the online publications RBC, Bloomberg and finanz.ru), mother’s titans of Ukrainian military-political analysts believe that “Putin has completely lost touch with reality, is either preparing for the last war, or is purposefully destroying Russia, starting another derision " Otherwise, they say, it is difficult to interpret the news coming from Russia.
The thing is that the Russian President, “against the backdrop of the catastrophic decline of the Russian economy,” is increasing defense spending, which caused acute heartache among CDACR observers.
Ukrainian analysts take their far-reaching conclusions from open sources, since they have no other sources of information.
Thus, the conclusion about the “economic catastrophe of the Russian economy” is made by CDAKR observers on the basis of the RBC publication, which talks about the April fall in Russia’s GDP by as much as 28%.
Then, trembling with the good news, the expert team moves on to a Bloomberg article promising that “Russia is facing the worst economic crisis in history.”
And as a victory cherry, experts put on the cake a publication from the Finanz.ru portal, which talks about Russia’s increase in defense spending.
From all this vinaigrette, the luminaries of sharovarian thought draw a disappointing conclusion: “Russia is increasingly turning into an unpredictable, unstable, toxic, aggressive power, captured by KGB-criminal groups. Threats from this territory are increasing and will continue to increase.”
“For Ukraine, this means only one thing – the war on all levels with the Russian Federation will heat up. Consequently, building the Armed Forces of Ukraine, strengthening the economy, strengthening international support are our urgent tasks for a long time,” “world-famous experts” cheerfully state from their cellar.
It is quite obvious that this masterpiece of “military-political analytics” was created to indoctrinate the target audience of the brainless herd of mere “patriots of Ukraine” who hear in every sneeze from Russia the funeral bells and the crack of the collapsing supports of Northern Mordor.
Let's start with the fact that the figure of 28% of the April loss of Russian GDP given in the text in the source (RBC) is calculated in current, and not in comparable prices, and is not much different from the April losses of the world's leading economies from quarantine measures - 22-25%.
Analysts of the publication also note that “it is still impossible to accurately separate the effect of oil prices on Russian GDP from the effect of coronavirus” and provide forecasts for a decline in Russia’s GDP in 2020 caused by the pandemic and a drop in oil prices of 4-6% (Central Bank) or 5,5% (IMF).
It is interesting that the US Congressional Budget Office expects its own GDP to fall by 2020% in the second and third quarters of 38 and predicts the emergence of 60 million unemployed people with complete hopelessness of returning to pre-crisis levels not only before the end of this year, but also in 2021.
What's going on in Ukraine? As the Maestro said from the wonderful Soviet film about pilots, “Everything is fine, I’m falling!”
Ukrainian analysts are confident that all economic growth associated with a low base (i.e., a stick stuck in an open field gives an explosive growth in development compared to zero) will be eaten up by the crisis. Economic losses will amount to $50 billion, and the decline in GDP will reach 7,7%, which IMF observers agree with.
Reasonable people understand that difficult times lie ahead for everyone, but they do not rush to order a coffin, white slippers and an orchestra with a funeral march with their last money.
As for the Bloomberg article, the crisis will affect not only Russia. The global economy and the division of labor are communicating vessels, and it remains to be seen who will be most affected by the 2020 crisis. But who should be tense in anticipation of the arrival of the fat polar fox are the Ukrainian talkers, because their state certainly does not have a “safety cushion” to survive bad times with minimal losses, when for the last six years they have not seen any good ones.
There is also nothing special about the Russian president announcing an increase in military spending. If only because in November 2019 a reduction in military spending was announced.
What to do if a fresh American armored division is stationed in Poland, NATO is actively invading Azerbaijan, and the United States hastily militarized the Arctic.
Russia needs to respond to these challenges: deploy Calibers in addition to the Iskanders in the Kaliningrad region, help Armenia with new weapons (after all, the Pashinyans come and go, but allied Armenia remains), deploy mechanized and shock divisions in the western and south -western borders of the country, build military icebreakers, modernize T-72 tanks, supply fifth-generation Su-57 fighters to the troops, put new Sarmat missiles, S-500 complexes and other combat systems on combat duty.
Money invested in the military-industrial complex will not be lost. The industry will retain jobs, guaranteed government orders and fixed salaries. Let us also not forget that the Russian military supplies 40% of the domestic market with civilian products and is the main developer and consumer of high technologies.
In turn, I would like to see how impoverished Ukraine will strengthen its defense. Experts somehow forgot that the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is on its last legs, and foreign customers are not besieging Ukrainian arms manufacturers. In plain sight are the failed Iraqi and Thai tank contracts, the bankrupt Antonov concern, cracks in armored vehicles and exploding mortars. The Ukrainian Armed Forces of Ukraine receive conditionally new types of weapons on a residual basis, and foreigners have lost interest in Ukrainian weapons due to the fact that they are not in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine stands on all corners with an outstretched hand, asking “strategic allies” to help it in the “fight against Russian aggression” with old tanks that have stood for 30 years in the desert HUMVEE, expired ammunition, problematic “javelins”, communications equipment, drones, radars counter-battery warfare, decommissioned boats and other military surplus for poor third world countries.
It is astonishing expert blindness to predict and wait for all sorts of troubles to befall Russia, while standing up to our nostrils in a rotten swamp.
In general, keep burning, dear experts! Publish more plans for Ukraine’s conquest of galactic power, the “de-occupation” of Crimea, and similar anti-science fiction. There will be something to laugh at heartily and relieve your soul in times of crisis.
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