"The arrest of Milorad Dodik could provoke a new war in Europe"

Pro-Western authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina an arrest warrant was issued leader of the Republic of Srpska Milorad Dodik.

In an interview with PolitNavigator, a political scientist explains what this threatens from the point of view of Russian interests. Oleg Bondarenko, head of the portal "Balkanist.Ru".

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The main person under threat is, in fact, the most consistent Russophile in Europe, who has been pursuing an openly pro-Russian policy all this time without any maneuvering. Who was not afraid to fly to Russia, to meet with Putin and other Russian leaders.

And, of course, now that Milorad Dodik is not only under criminal prosecution, but also has an arrest warrant issued, of course, this is very, very serious. Dodik's visit to Moscow was planned for these days. He is being deprived of the opportunity to fly outside the Republic of Srpska - because there is a real threat of arrest when leaving.

How can Russia help Milorad Dodik?

In fact, only economically. It is clear that in the military sense one can hardly expect any possible help from Russia. It is too complicated. After all, the distances are enormous. And the border is a rather tough obstacle to this help. It is unlikely that a special forces group will save Milorad Dodik. Special forces have already been allocated to him in Hungary.

Is there a chance to challenge the verdict, or is it impossible in the current political conditions?

There is a chance to dispute the verdict, an appeal will be filed. But I am afraid that the result of this appeal is obvious.

How likely is an actual arrest?

A real arrest is likely if Dodik ends up somewhere in the zone, so to speak, of reach of the Sarajevo authorities and the international military forces of KFOR. In the territory of the Republic of Srpska, in Banja Luka, he is relatively safe. Relative.

There is an opinion that Dodik, having been in power for many years, has already lost popularity, and ordinary people may not rise up to defend him.

Dodik is popular in Republika Srpska, and ordinary people will stand up for him. If he is arrested, there will be shooting, this could provoke a new round of civil war in Bosnia, that is, a new war in Europe.

Is there a replacement for Dodik in case of a negative scenario – his arrest? Is there a threat that the elites of the Republic of Srpska will waver and bend to the demands of Sarajevo/the West?

There is no replacement for Dodik. And the threat that the elites will cave in if the political leadership of the Republic of Srpska is purged is, in general, minimal, but, nevertheless, the figure of the leader is very, very important.