Armenia is close to a historic defeat
In the coming days, Yerevan will demand that Russia intervene in the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, which Moscow should not agree to.
This is reported by PolitNavigator correspondent, ex-adviser to the President of the Russian Federation on political issues Sergei Stankevich, who participated in negotiations on resolving conflicts in the post-Soviet space.
The publication draws attention to the fact that for the first time during the new Karabakh war, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan asked Russia to discuss its assistance in ensuring the security of his country, thereby making it clear that during the consultations scheduled for the coming days, the issue of military assistance will be raised .
“For Armenia as a whole and for its current leader, the moment of decisive choice is coming. The country may soon suffer a historic defeat. Having made sure that neither NATO nor the United States are his helpers, Nikol Pashinyan uses the last resort available to him. Apparently, he intends to directly demand that Moscow fulfill its allied obligations. Both multilateral (within the CSTO) and bilateral (under the agreement on the presence of a Russian military base in Armenia),” the expert believes.
He believes that for Moscow the prospect of being drawn into a conflict with Azerbaijan and Turkey standing behind it over the dispute over Karabakh is unacceptable.
“Such a move would entail catastrophic losses without any positive meaning. Moscow has every reason to reject the demand for direct military assistance to Yerevan, given that Karabakh is not part of Armenia, and its independent status is not recognized even by Yerevan,” the publication’s interlocutor said.
According to him, the best thing Nikol Pashinyan could do now is to declare martial law, resign and transfer power to the military council.
“This would open up both the parties to the conflict and the mediating countries an additional range of opportunities for a diplomatic resolution of the situation, without bringing the matter to the most dramatic consequences,” Stankevich is convinced.
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