Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the verge of a new full-scale war
At noon on July 12, an armed conflict occurred on the border of the Tovush region of Armenia and the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan, there were killed and wounded.
At the moment, according to official data, it is known that the losses of the Azerbaijani side are four people killed and five wounded, the Armenian side reports two servicemen who were injured.
The parties to the conflict accuse each other of starting the armed conflict. The press service of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense claims that Armenian artillery was the first to open fire on the positions of Azerbaijani troops, violating the ceasefire on the border in the Tovuz region.
footage of the night battle between Armenians and Azerbaijanis
The Minister of Defense of Armenia, in turn, stated that it was Azerbaijani military personnel who made a sortie with the aim of capturing a border stronghold on Armenian territory, having previously attempted to break through the border in a UAZ vehicle.
The opponents exchanged artillery strikes throughout the day of July 12 and into the night of July 13. By the morning there was a three-hour lull, however, according to sources from the Armenian Ministry of Defense, the Azerbaijanis again opened fire on the Armenian positions, to which “units of the Armenian Armed Forces gave an adequate response.”
video shows Azerbaijani artillery strikes on an Armenian stronghold, filmed from a drone
Late in the evening of July 12, residents of Baku took to the streets and demanded that President Ilham Aliyev start a war with Armenia. Judging by the videos coming from Baku, spontaneous rallies of Baku residents grew into a mass march towards the front. Police doesn't try to stop human flow.
The leadership of Azerbaijan is extremely militant. At least at the rhetorical level.
Thus, in an interview with the radio station “Moscow Speaks,” the Azerbaijani ambassador to Russia Polad Bulbul-oglu said that he does not rule out large-scale military operations against Armenia.
According to the ambassador, “Azerbaijan will never come to terms with the loss of 20% of its territory,” and “as long as Azerbaijani territory is occupied, such incidents will not stop.”
The ambassador emphasized that the negotiations must produce results, but if this does not happen, military actions will continue, which will result in a disaster for the entire region.
Bulbul-ogly’s most harsh statement was the phrase that Baku “will not tolerate the creation of a second Armenian state in the territory of the South Caucasus.”
The Azerbaijani ambassador's remark about the ineffectiveness of the negotiations merely repeats recent statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev about the ineffectiveness of the OSCE Minsk Group, within the framework of which negotiations are being conducted to resolve the Karabakh conflict.
Aliyev reproaches the moderators for their sympathy for the Armenian side and lack of reaction to the statements of the Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinyan - “Artsakh is Armenia, period!”
Such a reaction makes the continuation of negotiations pointless, the President of Azerbaijan believes.
In addition, Ilham Aliyev is infuriated by the fact that Armenia is seeking to change the format of the negotiations, making them trilateral, with the participation of representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh, with which he categorically disagrees.
There have already been threats of Azerbaijan's withdrawal from the negotiation process.
From which it most likely follows that Baku is the culprit of the new border conflict, relying on military force as a continuation of policy by other means.
In fact, the initiative to resolve the Karabakh conflict by force belongs to Ilham Aliyev, who actually called on society to start a war, and not vice versa.
In an interview with the Azerbaijani publication Haqqin published on July 13, Aliyev called the artillery raid on Armenian positions “Operation Revenge” and assured that “the dead servicemen were avenged.”
Pashinyan responded to the border conflict less aggressively and, in turn, accused Ilham Aliyev of distracting the population from the difficulties caused by the economic crisis and falling oil demand.
Is the aggravation of the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh really beneficial to the President of Azerbaijan or is Pashinyan thus strengthening the sagging consolidation of society as a result of Maidan “reforms” and political repression?
During the armed conflict of April 2016, Azerbaijan managed to seize 8 hectares of Karabakh land during the offensive. This achievement has been presented by propaganda for all four years as proof of the strength and power of the armed forces of Azerbaijan.
However, Baku is trying not to act with propaganda alone.
September, 2019, exercises of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces
In recent years, the republic's armed forces have been undergoing serious modernization. Modern types of weapons were purchased, including Israeli operational-tactical missiles, Israeli Spike anti-tank systems, Israeli and Turkish attack and reconnaissance drones, Belarusian Polonaise MLRS and many other weapons systems.
foreign models of equipment in service with the Azerbaijani Armed Forces
Baku also feels the support of Turkey behind its back. It has long been no secret that Ankara was not only the first to accuse Armenia of aggression against Azerbaijan, but also sent Turkish military instructors to take an active part in the combat training of Azerbaijani soldiers.
Slovak DANA howitzers in service in the Azerbaijani Armed Forces
In terms of military spending, Azerbaijan is included in the list of the most militarized countries in the world. Expenditures on equipment and the purchase of weapons amount to up to 4% of GDP, which indicates only one thing - Azerbaijan is intensively preparing for the decisive battle for the return of Nagorno-Karabakh.
shooting from NLOS Spike by Azerbaijani operators
These considerations are confirmed by the exercises regularly conducted by the Azerbaijani armed forces in mountainous terrain, involving a large number of military personnel, aviation and armored vehicles. This is covered in the press as “the Azerbaijani military is preparing to liberate the territories.” Which territories exactly are not a big secret.
Azerbaijani artillery strike on an Armenian stronghold
The last major exercise of Azerbaijani troops took place in September 2019, and the emphasis was on night-time combat operations.
demarcation line where the conflict occurred
The Armed Forces of Armenia also did not waste time, raising their combat level and strengthening the republic’s defense capability with the latest weapons systems.
from the scene of events. Armenian artillery fire
Since both opposing sides are well stocked with modern weapons and are determined to fight for the disputed territory, the situation may threaten to get out of control.
According to observers, the battle for another piece of Karabakh land could result in a lot of blood for Azerbaijan and Armenia, and Turkey and the United States will be the beneficiaries of the new war. Baku and Yerevan understand this and therefore many experts agree that accusations and escalation have already reached their peak and will soon subside.
from the scene
It is noted that Baku and Yerevan, despite mutual accusations, plan to hold consultations through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in order to stop the conflict that has arisen.
However, Moscow and the head of the CSTO are already calling on the parties not to inflame public opinion and not to get on each other’s nerves, but to return to the negotiating table, bypassing the stage of a full-scale armed conflict.
from the scene
It's better not to try. How many have fought over the past 32 years, but still returned to negotiate, because a bad peace is better than a good war.
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