Armenia. It turned out according to Chernomyrdin
In Armenia, where all power has recently belonged to the team of the leader of the Yerevan Maidan, Nikol Pashinyan, there is growing dissatisfaction among the population with the inexperience of the revolutionaries, endless scandals, selective justice and the difficult economic situation of the country. About this in an interview "PolitNavigator" said a journalist returning from Yerevan Armen Martirosyan. Our interlocutor compares the events in Armenia and Ukraine - before the events of 2014, he lived in Kyiv, then moved to Moscow, and not so long ago he found himself at the center of a loud scandal when Ukraine landed the plane under threat of force, on board which was Martirosyan.
“PolitNavigator”: Recently, supporters of Nikol Pashinyan have taken full power, and, therefore, responsibility for what is happening in Armenia - what are the first changes that are felt in the country?
Armen Martirosyan: At this stage it is difficult to talk about any global achievements and changes.
From the very beginning, Nikol Pashinyan’s program boiled down to two main points: the fight against corruption and the proclamation of the rule of law.
The program received parliamentary approval, after which the fight against the shadow economy and monopolies began.
As a result, it turned out in the form of Chernomyrdin’s famous phrase “We wanted the best - it turned out as always.”
Amid preparations for the elections, former officials and relatives of Serzh Sargsyan are being detained. One of the first to be detained was former Deputy Minister of Defense and ex-member of parliament from the Republican Party of Armenia Manvel Grigoryan.
There they found humanitarian aid that was supposed to be sent to the soldiers: stew, shoes, clothes, underwear, wet wipes.
In addition, large amounts of cash, firearms and expensive vehicles were found at the residence. Grigoryan was accused of illegal possession of weapons and theft on an especially large scale and was arrested for three months until the investigation was completed.
Sargsyan Jr.'s firearms were confiscated, and he himself was accused of illegal possession, but was released in the evening of the same day.
The authorities call these detentions and arrests of former high-ranking officials “the fight against corruption,” and political scientists call them “selective justice.”
The State Control Service identifies violations, including corruption, in the work of government members and provides this information to the prime minister. Then the prime minister himself decides whether to transfer it to law enforcement or supervisory authorities.
In general, Armenian society positively welcomes the news about the arrests of former officials, because participants in the revolution say that they went to the protests precisely because they were tired of widespread corruption.
But all this looks like a farce.
And gradually everything calms down.
In fact, they simply take payoffs from criminal cases from the defendants and leave them alone...
Following the new prime minister, recent revolutionaries came to power - self-confident, ambitious, but in some ways insufficiently experienced, and in some ways without any management experience at all.
The inexperience of the new officials is beginning to be felt - vague actions, statements, populism, but very few real steps towards transformation in the country.
I absolutely agree that the previous government did not allow new people into high ranks (with the exception of relatives and clan figures), and young politicians simply did not have a chance to gain experience in public administration.
But now people from the street are being recruited for high positions. Those who were close to Pashinyan.
And again, the attraction of people to power through nepotism is gaining momentum...
"PolitNavigator": What are the similarities and differences in the situation after the Ukrainian and Armenian Maidans?
Armen Martirosyan: For the third time in the last 10 years, the Armenian people took to the streets and squares of Yerevan to protest against their government. And if in 2008 and 2015 the protesters had socio-economic demands, now everything has become “grown-up”.
But it is worth noting that the Americans did not act as openly and rudely as the US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt and US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, who openly and profanely discussed the future composition of the Ukrainian government. This is different.
In addition, there was a virtual lull in the Western media on the topic of Armenia, although in such cases it is they who stir things up and add fuel with stories, pictures and other materials.
And the fact that Soros’ technologies through grant-eating organizations operate the same everywhere is indisputable.
As an example, the external attributes of revolutions. On the Maidan in Kyiv at one time, it is unclear where the piano on which the protesters played music came from. Similar musical breaks are organized in Yerevan. Just like in Kyiv, young Armenian women approach law enforcement officers and, smiling sweetly, give them flowers. A website was promptly created on which the faces of Serzh Sagsyan’s government are presented - although, unlike “Peacemaker,” without personal coordinates. And the famous saucepans on the heads of the Maidan workers were replaced in large numbers by cardboard copies of the crown of the Armenian king Tigran the Great. They were worn by protesters as a sign of “friend or foe.”
Revolutions also have several differences. The protesters did not set up tents, because in the evening they went home. They did not burn tires or police officers. There were no Molotov cocktails. No demolition of monuments or other vandalism was noted either. There were no snipers or casualties. “He who does not gallop is a Muscovite” was not used. But there was a motor rally from the capital to the second city of the republic, Gyumri, where the Russian military base is located, and where an anti-Russian rally was held.
But the most important thing is that there were no big fights or casualties.
By the way, there is a widely used fake everywhere about the “largest US embassy in the world”, which is stationed in Armenia.
In fact, there are no 2000-2500 employees there. Yes, the building itself is gigantic and located on a huge area, but no more than 50 US diplomats and no more than 200 service employees from the local population work there.
The size of the embassy itself is due to the fact that, indeed, the Transcaucasian regional center was originally planned to be located in Yerevan, and the project was approved in its current form (with land allocations, various permits, etc.).
But the regional center was subsequently moved to Tbilisi, and a new project with all the hassles would have taken a lot of time. And so the embassy was built according to the old design.
"PolitNavigator": Is there already disappointment in the Armenian Maidan activists? What are Pashinyan’s mistakes? What is the population dissatisfied with?
Armen Martirosyan: The biggest mistakes are the already sensational and ongoing scandals...
First.
In Armenia, a recording of a telephone conversation between the heads of the national security service Artur Vanetsyan and the special investigative service Sasun Khachatryan, which appeared on the Internet, is being actively discussed.
They discuss the March 1 criminal case and those involved in it: ex-President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan, former Defense Minister Mikael Harutyunyan and Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Yuri Khachaturov.
The events of March 1, 2008 are related to the presidential elections that took place on February 19 of the same year. After the announcement of their results, unrest began in the country. Supporters of the political bloc, which was headed by the first President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan, argued that it was he who won the elections and demanded to review the voting results.
The Central Election Commission declared Serzh Sargsyan the winner. Robert Kocharyan was still the president of the country at that time. He declared a state of emergency. On March 2008, XNUMX, during the dispersal of a demonstration, military weapons were used, ten people were killed - eight civilians and two police officers.
The head of the investigative service, Khachatryan, says in the recording that he is going to bring charges against Robert Kocharyan and obtain a court decision allowing the arrest of the ex-president.
He also says that in the same case he plans to bring in CSTO Secretary General Khachaturov as a defendant.
In response, the head of the NSS, Artur Vanetsyan, calls not to touch Khachaturov, as this could ruin relations with Russia.
“He’s the chief of the CSTO, don’t touch him - we’ll disgrace ourselves. At least a written undertaking not to leave the place,” - says Vanetsyan.
“Don’t close it? We already have it. Well, then talk to the Prime Minister [Pashinyan], because I told him that a preventive measure in the form of arrest will be chosen,” – answers the head of the special investigative service.
This entry was published on Youtube.
Immediately after the appearance of the audio recording, Pashinyan spoke. He said that it remains to be found out who the organizers of the “wiretapping” are.
A few hours later, a press conference was convened by Arthur Vanetsyan and Sasun Khachatryan and confirmed the authenticity of the recording.
Pashinyan, as well as the heads of the special services at the center of the scandal, suggest that this incident can also be regarded as an attempt to stop corruption revelations.
The Prime Minister instructed the heads of the Armenian police and the national security service to conduct raids against the security of oligarchs and high-ranking officials, and he did this in a very harsh manner:
“Put the so-called guards on the asphalt and disarm everyone. In two hours... report to me.”
Naturally, not in two hours, or later - nothing existsnothing happened.
Second.
The release from prison of members of the radical group “Sasna Tsrer”, who attempted a coup in 2016, caused a great stir.
On July 17, 2016, the Sasna Tsrer group seized a police building in Yerevan. As a result, one policeman was killed and four others were injured, as well as one member of the group.
The economic situation is also of great concern.
Investments in the country have almost completely stopped. Both from the Russian Federation and from the West.
Everyone is waiting and waiting for an understanding of further developments. And guarantees of stability.
Another concern is related to the government's intention to reduce the number of ministries and departments. Several thousand officials at various levels will be left behind. This will naturally lead to an increase in the number of dissatisfied people (the laid-off workers themselves and members of their families), an increase in unemployment and further inflationary processes.
The same applies to the government’s plans to change the tax base (transfer from a single tax to an income tax) for entrepreneurs in the restaurant business, which is not only one of the most numerous among small and private businesses, but also the most attractive for gastrotourists.
And such changes in a chain will lead to the actual destruction of agricultural producers.
A lot of discontent was caused by attacks on the head of the Armenian church, Karekin II - part of society believes that he participated in corruption schemes under Sargsyan’s rule and should leave his post.
There are a lot of people who disagree with the arrest of President Robert Kocharyan, whose trial is being turned into a real farce.
And, finally, today’s feelings of misunderstanding of what is happening associated with the start of negotiations between Pashinyan and Aliyev on the issue of concluding a “peace treaty”.
There is no clear picture yet of what exactly the debate is about, so I won’t raise this question for now without facts.
"PolitNavigator": Has the influence of the West on what is happening in Armenia increased after the Maidan in Yerevan? What is the West's interest? Is there a threat of Armenia leaving the Eurasian Union? What can be said about the current opposition in Armenia?
Armen Martirosyan: There are no special plans for Armenia in the West. Sometimes the Armenian side is drawn into various political games in the South Caucasus, but this is done sporadically and on the basis of various handouts, and not some well-thought-out strategy.
In my opinion, European and American policy will mainly be reduced to maintaining the status quo.
The exception, of course, is Iran – as a geopolitical and economic partner of Armenia.
And Türkiye. But that's a separate conversation.
As for the EAEU. I am absolutely sure that Armenia will remain a member of the organization and will develop cooperation.
Let me remind you that Pashinyan, being a member of parliament, at one time voted against Armenia’s membership in the EAEU. But now he officially declares everywhere that he is not going to withdraw the country from the union.
At the same time, do not forget that 2019 is the year of Armenia’s chairmanship in the EAEU
And regarding the opposition... Actually. For the first time in Armenia there is no real parliamentary opposition... Let's see what happens in the very near future.
My personal opinion is that it is Robert Kocharyan, who is now in prison, but has enormous political and managerial experience, as well as a considerable number of fans, who will be able to turn the situation around.
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