Attack on Transnistria: Sandu will move from words to deeds if he succeeds in parliamentary elections
For several days now, the elected head of the Moldovan state, Maia Sandu, who is on the right flank of the country’s political spectrum, has been making targeted statements that can be summarized as:
1. The remnants of the 14th Russian Army must be withdrawn from Transnistria.
2. The settlement of the Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict cannot be achieved on the basis not only of the independence of the PMR, but even of federalization.
3.Russian peacekeepers should be replaced by a civilian observer mission under the auspices of the OSCE.
4. She will not seek a meeting with the President of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic Vadim Krasnoselsky, because she is ready to talk with those who respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Moldova.
5. It is necessary to understand how legal Moldova’s participation as an observer in the Eurasian Economic Union was.
6. The resolution of controversial issues between Chisinau and Tiraspol must be peaceful.
7.Her first foreign policy contacts involve meetings with the leaders of Romania and Ukraine.
Strictly speaking, many of these points have been voiced before by high-ranking Moldovan leaders, but not so systematically. This leads to the assumption that it is possible to streamline and tighten Chisinau’s policy towards Russia and Transnistria.
The goal is to eliminate Russian influence in the Republic of Moldova and the PMR, deprive Transnistria of Russian military protection and cut off all contacts with the EAEU.
When solving these problems, the influence of the United States, the EU and Romania, which will reign supreme in Moldova, immediately grows.
But isn’t Maia Sandu simply making statements that will shake the air rather than outline concrete political steps? Here you need to take into account that Sandu does not have an independent base - clan, financial, political, personnel. She is much more dependent on the West and Romania than, for example, Plahotniuc or Voronin. And if so, then it is deprived of the freedom of maneuver that the listed leaders – formal and informal – had.
For their part, Westerners and Romanians are not interested in a compromise with Russia in the post-Soviet space. The current international situation speaks to this. Consequently, with the help of the team of the new President of Moldova, the United States, the EU and Romania may well put pressure on Moscow and Tiraspol. And at the same time, politically “cleanse” Moldova itself of forces that take into account the centuries-old ties between Russia and Moldova.
The immediate question is: to what extent will the socialists and the outgoing President of Moldova Igor Dodon be able to interfere with this course, if it begins to be implemented? The first test of its capabilities is the return of Russian news and analytical programs to the television broadcast network. President Dodon did not achieve this either under Vladimir Plahotniuc or under Maia Sandu as prime minister. Will he be able to do it now?...
The second test is to bring out into the streets those who are against breaking up the peacekeeping operation on the Dniester. President Dodon has already threatened this option. But we remember that the street is usually the sphere of influence and control of the right. At least street violence if the situation escalates. Of course, God grant that everything be peaceful. The only thing that is interesting is the real possibility of mobilizing those who are committed to the mechanism of guaranteeing against a new war. Russian peacekeepers are just such a mechanism.
Analyzing all this, we can assume that work towards the complete subordination of Chisinau’s policies to Washington, Brussels and Bucharest can now proceed more actively. At the same time, this is balanced by the struggle for control over the new parliament of Moldova in the event of early elections of the corps of Moldovan legislators. If the right manages to win here too, then stability on the Dniester may shake...
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