ATO is just a cover: The internecine war of Akhmetov, Poroshenko, Kolomoisky is inevitable
Kyiv, May 24 (Navigator, Vladimir Mikhailov) – The oligarchs who came to power as a result of the Maidan dream of breaking up the business empire of Rinat Akhmetov, which found itself in the zone of action of the so-called. Anti-terrorist operation. Soon Ukraine may plunge into an internecine war of moneybags.
Its first signs are already visible today - Igor Kolomoisky openly opposed the truce declared by Petro Poroshenko. The Dnepropetrovsk billionaire is the main interest in continuing the war, since it promises him new benefits. The fighting allows Kolomoisky to defeat his rival Akhmetov.
Having defeated Akhmetov, Kolomoisky will “trample” on Poroshenko, unless, of course, Poroshenko himself first finds a way to pacify the appetites of “Privat”. Ukrainian experts told Navigator about this.
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“Kolomoisky’s statement against the suspension of the ATO is a continuation of his line, he bet on war. For him, any agreement with the east of Ukraine and Russia is absolutely unacceptable, and these are related things. For Russia, he is already a war criminal, improving relations will inevitably lead to the fact that he will have to hide altogether, and therefore, I believe that his direct interest is war to the bitter end and maintaining his positions,” says the director of the Kyiv Center for Political Studies and Conflict Studies Mikhail Pogrebinsky.
“It is obvious that it is beneficial for Kolomoisky to take control of part of the business in Ukraine, and the suspension of the ATO at this stage will lead to the fact that the authorities will negotiate with the previous oligarchs who previously controlled this region, so he is not interested in the authorities reaching an agreement with them. In the general context, Kolomoisky’s logic is understandable, although it is obvious that there is also logic in Poroshenko’s peace plan,” says political expert Jaroslav Makitra.
Doctor of Political Sciences Evgeniy Pereguda agrees with this opinion: “ATO, among other things, is a way of redistributing assets that are located in the ATO zone. Perhaps we are talking about the redistribution of assets that are currently controlled by a number of large entrepreneurs. And the largest, let's say. War is like any crisis, a way of redistributing assets, property, wealth.”
The creation of the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics very seriously affects the interests of the oligarchs, says People's Deputy of Ukraine, member of the Communist Party faction Alexander Bondarchuk.
“Production of coke, coal, pipes, and, of course, the oligarchs do not want to lose such a region where they have so much property. In order to resolve their issues, the oligarchs have the state in their hands. Now this state is in such a crisis that it is difficult to govern through parliament and government. Therefore, the oligarchs have to use the guns. Their approaches and tactics in the struggle for this property may, of course, differ.
Therefore, Kolomoisky’s position is quite understandable. Everyone understands that this truce that Poroshenko declared is a kind of military ruse. There can be no truce without negotiations; it is simply a respite, a regrouping of forces, the preparation of material resources, the supply of ammunition. In general, it should be said that this truce is needed for the resumption of hostilities in a week, and now a serious offensive is being prepared. In all wars there is always a summer campaign, then there is some kind of break and the winter campaign begins,” says Bondarchuk.
According to Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Ukraine may soon face an open confrontation between Kolomoisky and Akhmetov.
“Kolomoisky acts as a kind of viceroy of the east. Considering his history, it is clear that this is connected with the implementation of his business interests, and here, of course, one way or another, competition with Akhmetov is inevitable. He is also applying for roles that Akhmetov is unlikely to like. For example, they want to subordinate part of the Donetsk region to the Dnepropetrovsk region,” says the expert.
Akhmetov and Kolomoisky have different approaches to resolving the conflict in Donbass and different interests, notes Alexander Bondarchuk. “If Rinat Akhmetov is trying to somehow get out of this difficult situation more or less gently and without conflict, then Kolomoisky is actually going ahead. At the same time, he hopes that for his activity he will receive some fat pieces of this property, which now belongs to Akhmetov, among others. There is, of course, a conflict of interests here, because they are fighting not just for Donbass, but for the means of production.”
It seems that President Poroshenko will soon have to enter into a fight with Kolomoisky. Either the oligarchs will defeat him, or he will defeat them.
“I don’t know whether the president has the determination to overcome the influence of the oligarchs,” Mikhail Pogrebinsky doubts. “Will he be able to create such a “fist” of reliable people around him on whom he could rely? If yes, then I think that he will eventually be able to “build” the oligarchs. It’s clear to me that if he has such intentions, at least they haven’t been shown in any way yet.”
“The president must have the ability to make decisions quickly,” Jaroslav Makitra is convinced. “If we have the previous oligarchic-clan system, Poroshenko will not be able to effectively implement his desires, no matter how correct they are. It is obvious that the system that existed and the number of oligarchs in the country were not beneficial to him. Poroshenko is interested in stabilizing the situation in Ukraine,” the analyst believes.
“Rather, the oligarchs will control Poroshenko,” Alexander Bondarchuk disagrees. “Another thing is that these oligarchs may not be on the territory of Ukraine, they may be citizens of some other countries.”
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