“The author of the “Ukrainization” of Kazakhstan is the government itself”
Sergey Kozhemyakin, candidate of political sciences, and the Pravda newspaper’s own correspondent for Central Asia, tells PolitNavigator how the riot in Kazakhstan is perceived by neighboring countries.
According to the expert, the preconditions for the outbreak of pogroms in all previous years were created by the Kazakh government itself, flirting with the West, nationalists and nurturing anti-Russian sentiments.
"PolitNavigator": Hello, Sergey! What's happening in Kazakhstan?
Sergey Kozhemyakin: Mass popular protests are taking place in Kazakhstan, the ground for which has been prepared for many years. It was prepared, first of all, by the actions of the authorities. Despite its rich natural resources, the country has high levels of poverty, unemployment and inequality. The coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated these problems to the limit.
Against the background of significant levels of poverty, for example, the number of dollar billionaires increased from 4 to 7, and their total wealth - from 12,7 to 24,1 billion dollars. The authorities not only failed to contain the rise in prices, but their actions only fueled it. This can be seen in the example of liquefied gas, which doubled in price after price liberalization. This was the last straw, after which the accumulated indignation burst into the streets.
It should also be recalled that 2021 broke a long-standing record for the number of strikes. They took place in different regions, workers demanded increased wages in response to rising prices and improved working conditions. Moreover, protest activity was most active in the west of the republic. Being the main raw material base of the country and providing Kazakhstan with the majority of its income, this region suffers from unresolved social problems. So the situation was heating up for a long time, but the authorities ignored these “bells”.
"PolitNavigator": However, some analysts argue - some claim that this is a “popular revolt”, while others claim that an artificial “Ukrainization” of Kazakhstan is taking place before our eyes. But what if this is “two in one”, that is, both a “popular revolt” that has an objective basis and specially directed processes? Will such a “mixture” of factors lead to a Kazakh pro-Western “Maidan”?
Sergey Kozhemyakin: In fact, the “Ukrainization” of Kazakhstan has been going on for many years, and its author is the government itself. Anti-Sovietism and anti-communism are part of the state ideology; the theme of the “Kazakh Holodomor” with a fantastic number of “victims” is being promoted at the official level. The last monuments to Lenin are being demolished, hundreds of “alien” (Soviet and Russian) names of streets, districts, villages, and cities are being renamed. The government is flirting with nationalist forces by including their representatives in government bodies.
You may recall that several presidential candidates in the last elections had demands for “final decommunization” in their programs. And since the selection of candidates in Kazakhstan is very strict, and only loyal figures are allowed to participate in elections, such rhetoric obviously received approval from above.
And the authorities turned a blind eye to the notorious “language patrols” for a long time, reacting sluggishly only after the noise in the Russian media.
And in foreign policy, the authorities, assuring Moscow of “eternal friendship,” have established more than strong relations with the West. Leading American and European corporations operate in Kazakhstan, joint military exercises with NATO are held annually, and the Americans have created a number of biological laboratories in the republic with more than dubious goals.
"PolitNavigator": And yet, I’ll ask the question more specifically: isn’t the fatal guiding “hand of the West” visible in the events that have flared up in earnest?
Sergey Kozhemyakin: Of course, a number of forces - both internal and external - will try to intercept the protest and use it for their own purposes. But if we talk about the United States, then the current government completely suits them.
Giving some kind of face-to-face forecasts is a rewarding task. There is no visible organization of the protests yet. For 30 years, the government has done everything to purge the opposition. In 2015, the Communist Party was banned in the country, and independent trade unions are suppressed. So the protest inevitably took on a spontaneous form.
Let’s hope that the people who take to the streets will be able to “fashion” some kind of organization themselves and not allow alien forces to do this. For example, some internal clans or external players.
"PolitNavigator": What are the main demands of the “rebels”?
Sergey Kozhemyakin: Initially, the demands were quite “narrow” - to reduce prices for gas and basic food products. Then they became “general social”, including increasing wages and pensions, lowering the retirement age (a very painful issue for Kazakhstan). Finally, the slogans of the protests were the resignation of the government and the “leader of the nation” Nursultan Nazarbayev, who retained a number of posts. There is no single organizational center, but judging by incoming information, attempts are being made to create some kind of coordination councils that put forward lists of demands.
"PolitNavigator": What is the reaction of the authorities and opposition political forces to the speeches?
Sergey Kozhemyakin: The authorities' reaction initially followed the principle of "carrot and stick". On the one hand, she promised to return gas prices and introduce state regulation of prices for other goods. On the morning of January 5, the government was dismissed. On the other hand, the authorities demonstrated their readiness to harshly suppress protests, for which a state of emergency and a curfew were introduced, and security forces were mobilized. However, the scale of the protests forced the authorities to react “after the fact” and make concessions that were difficult to imagine in the morning. Thus, President Tokayev assumed the duties of head of the Security Council, which had previously been performed by Nazarbayev.
"PolitNavigator": It has not yet been forgotten how in Zhanaozen the “denouement” came quickly and very harshly. Sergey, events are really developing rapidly. Do you think the outcome will come quickly?
Sergey Kozhemyakin: It seems to me that we should not expect normalization of the situation in the coming days. While the situation is developing “increasingly” - the protests are spreading, the clashes are becoming more and more violent. It is obvious that a number of forces (government and para-government groups, criminals, etc.) are striving to “ride” the protest. The attitude of the government itself remains unclear - its monolithic nature, its readiness to take tough measures. In any case, Kazakhstan has entered a period of political instability, which cannot be compared with the situation ten years ago (Zhanaozen).
"PolitNavigator": In one of the cities of the Alma-Ata region, a monument to Nazarbayev was toppled. Shots are heard, rioters took control of one of the administrative buildings in Almaty, according to the head of state, security forces were killed, houses and cars were burning. If events follow the worst scenario for the Kazakh authorities using force, how do you think Russia should act?
Sergey Kozhemyakin: Unfortunately, Russia has long lost even those weak levers of influence on the post-Soviet space that it had. The share of the Russian population has decreased over 30 years from 38 to 18%, Russia does not have any noticeable presence of “soft power”, focusing on building relationships with the elites (and, as mentioned above, this did not at all tie the elites to Moscow with strong ties) .
Russia can only monitor the situation while maintaining external neutrality. Open support for the authorities and, especially, military-political intervention are fraught with the growth of anti-Russian sentiments. Which, I hope, is understood in Moscow.
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