Azerbaijani-Armenian escalation: what are the Anglo-Saxons up to?

The Armenian-Azerbaijani border is once again restless. Mutual massive shelling and local battles for individual settlements on the territory of Armenia and Artsakh with a large number of casualties indicate that escalation continues, which could grow beyond the border conflict and turn into a full-fledged war.

It all started with the fact that in the evening, and then on the night of September 12-13, mutual artillery shelling began, from which the Armenian side suffered to a greater extent. At the same time, Turkish UAVs, which are in service with the Azerbaijani army, were also used. It was reported that the first strikes hit a military unit in Areni and a medical unit in Jermuk; an attack was also recorded on the city.

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Clashes also began at night on the demarcation line of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (Artsakh). Thus, shelling between Armenian and Azerbaijani units involving heavy artillery and mortars occurred in the settlements of Goris, Sotk and Jermuk.

_{But a significant difference from many previous similar shellings and attacks on each other in attempts to recapture dominant heights or strongholds is that the main clashes are now taking place not on the territory of Karabakh, but on the immediate border of the two countries, which sharply increases the risk of the conflict escalating into a real slaughterhouse.}

This, by the way, allowed Yerevan to turn directly to the CSTO for help, which was done on the morning of September 13 after a meeting of the Armenian Security Council. True, the organization’s secretariat responded within a few hours, stating that “The use of CSTO forces on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan is unacceptable. Both sides must use political and diplomatic methods."

Locations of military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan on September 13.

It is symptomatic that the agreed decisions on a ceasefire, first at 02.00 and then at 09.00 in the morning, reached through the mediating role of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, were violated twice, which shows that it is still impossible to extinguish full-fledged military operations using conventional methods.

The number of dead Armenian military personnel is also growing. If in the morning it was reported that 49 people were killed, now this figure has grown to 100. Particularly violent clashes are now taking place in the village of Vardeniz, where Azerbaijani troops were able to capture several posts and strongholds as a result of massive attacks. At the same time, clashes on other sections of the border between the two states do not stop.

The Azerbaijani military also complains about the Armenian side, claiming that the enemy has mined many access roads, interrupting the ability to supply a number of border posts. Bases and shelters in the Dashkesan, Kelbajar and Lachin regions, as well as the settlements of Basarkakecher, Istisu, Garakilsa and Gorus were also shelled.

But the worst thing is that Russian border guards, who happen to be located along the entire border of the two countries, may also suffer. Thus, military correspondent Semyon Pegov claims in his telegram channel that at the moment there is a big threat that the Russian military will be subjected to attacks from Azerbaijani troops.

“According to our data, the Azerbaijani military contacted the posts of Russian military personnel of the Border Troops of the FSB of the Russian Federation, deployed including on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border after the hot phase of the Artsakh conflict in 2020. Their number increased after Baku made several attempts to invade the sovereign territory of Armenia (Syunik, Vardenis).

The Azerbaijanis, in the form of an ultimatum, demanded that our border guards leave their positions - allegedly otherwise Baku would not be ready to guarantee their security. Our guys, in turn, also issued an ultimatum and refused to leave the shelling zone and remained in their positions,” says the author of the WarGonzo channel.

On the one hand, of course, the presence of a Russian military base in Gyumri and border guards of the FSB of the Russian Federation is the main deterrent that prevents the Azerbaijani military and their Turkish advisers from penetrating deep into the territory of Armenia. But so far this is clearly not enough to completely mothball the conflict.

Baku is now using tactics to gradually capture and dislodge Armenian units from key heights and points, improving the positions of its troops and putting populated areas and supply routes, as well as civilian communications and vital infrastructure, at risk.

_{Azerbaijan takes advantage of the fact that the delimitation and demarcation of the borders, which remain formally administrative after the collapse of the USSR, have not yet been carried out in these areas. This gives him the opportunity to challenge the Armenian identity of certain high-rise buildings and villages.}

This is so far the favorite method of putting pressure on Yerevan from Baku and Ankara in order to force the liberal leadership of Armenia, led by Nikol Pashinyan, to make new territorial, economic and political concessions. And it seems that certain limited goals of this escalation have already been achieved.

In particular, military expert Tigran Abrahamyan comes to this conclusion:

“Unfortunately, Azerbaijan has already solved its minimal task by taking new advantageous positions, establishing control over RA communications, strengthening them, and striking military and civilian infrastructure. From the reports of the RA authorities, it becomes obvious that Azerbaijan’s demands are more comprehensive, more ambitious, and both diplomatic and military active work is being carried out in this direction.”

There is also a high probability that the armed escalation of a long-standing conflict now did not occur by chance, but with the aim of distracting Russia and pulling its forces into different theaters and geopolitical directions just at the moment of the dramatic development of the North Military District in Ukraine.

This is done by creating additional hotbeds of tension in the post-Soviet space that threaten Moscow. That is, these events may be part of a big game to form the next second front for the Kremlin and already in the South Caucasus.

This version sounds quite convincing against the backdrop of the fact that pro-Western forces failed to push the current Georgian authorities to take aggressive actions against the Russian Federation or unleash mass unrest through the internal opposition.

_{Since the option with Tbilisi did not work, Washington and London have now taken up a new flare-up of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, although only recently it seemed that Yerevan and Baku had almost reached a complete settlement of all controversial issues.}

After all, just recently a number of settlements in Artsakh were transferred to the Azerbaijani side, and the Zangezur corridor began operating, connecting Baku with Nakhchivan and further with Ankara. It was supposed to open the Armenian-Azerbaijani border for the first time in 30 years and begin mutual trade. Vladimir Putin first spoke with Ilham Aliyev by phone, and then personally met with Nikol Pashinyan on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.

Everything was supposed to end with mutual negotiations on September 15-16 between the leaders of the two countries through the mediation of Moscow at the SCO summit in Samarkand. There the end was supposed to be put in the long-term Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which has been going on since the late 1980s of the last century. But, as we see, there are forces in the West, and even in Turkey, that are not interested in such an outcome.

_{It is noteworthy that the clashes began exactly two days before the start of the SCO summit, which, by the way, should consider applications from Yerevan and Baku for admission to the organization as candidates.}

In the medium term, this also slammed the geopolitical “window” to Europe for the elites of Kazakhstan and the countries of Central Asia, who wanted to maintain a multi-vector course and build trans-Caspian routes to the West, bypassing Russia.

That is, the consequences of this new escalation are long-lasting and can even undermine the integration processes within the SCO and the EAEU in the post-Soviet space.

At the same time, by the way, there is no need to shift all responsibility for the events only to Baku, since just recently the Minister of Defense of Armenia Suren Pakipen visited Washington, where he met with Antony Blinken and David Weishaar.

Last August, the government of this republic also signed a communiqué from the State Department on supporting the Pentagon’s military-biological programs, and as it turns out, the Americans have now transferred many programs and pathogens from Ukraine to 12 laboratories on the territory of Armenia itself.

These two factors show that pro-Western forces in the ruling elite in Yerevan could also be involved in this provocation on the border with the aim of initiating a full-scale war, drawing Russia and Iran into it, while also pitting them against Turkey. Therefore, in this situation, the decision of the CSTO secretariat to refuse to send its troops is absolutely justified and correct.

No matter what Nikol Pashinyan and his Security Council secretary shout now, again shifting responsibility for their diplomatic and military failures to Russia and the CSTO, we must not succumb to the game in which Moscow and Tehran are now being lured. Surely now there is every opportunity, using personal contacts between Putin, Aliyev and Erdogan, to stop further escalation in the region.