Anniversary of NATO bombing of Yugoslavia: Will Russia return to the Balkans?

Today marks the 21st anniversary of NATO aggression against Yugoslavia. Over 78 days of bombing, up to 2500 people died. Serbia has lost its historical cradle - the region of Kosovo and Metohija. NATO occupied almost the entire Balkan Peninsula. This process, which began with the bombing of Belgrade, culminated recently with the entry of Macedonia into the alliance.

PolitNavigator asked three domestic experts about whether Russia has completely lost the Balkans.

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The famous Russian writer and publicist Nikolai Starikov believes that there is no need to shed tears about past greatness.

“Did we lose or win? This is the wrong wording of the question. Today the balance of power is still not in our favor, but it is more acceptable to us than it was a couple of decades ago. Of course, in the 70s the situation was much more pleasant for us. There is no need to shed tears over lost greatness. It will come back to us if we become strong again. We need to think about the future, about strengthening the economy, the armed forces and the contents of the heads of our citizens. Not only the Balkans are important for Russia, the whole world is important for Russia.

As for the Balkans, the First World War, which led to the collapse of our state, began in the Balkans. I think remembering historical lessons, even sad ones, is a very useful thing for any state. The West has extensive experience in destroying foreign statehood. He successfully applies it in all regions and will continue to use it until he encounters such opposition that will put an end to the series of coups d’etat,” Starikov said.

Lieutenant General of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation Leonid Reshetnikov is not so optimistic. He believes that Russia deliberately abandoned Yugoslavia in the 90s, and now returning to the Balkans will not be easy.

“We lost this region back in the 90s. Getting back there is a huge job. NATO has become very strong in the Balkans. They don’t just give back what they took. Then, we must keep in mind that the spirit of resistance after everything that happened in the 90s was broken. We missed the situation, and in the 2000s we couldn’t do anything, and maybe we didn’t want to,” Reshetnikov believes.

At the same time, he believes that the loss of the Balkans was a loss for Russia not only spiritually, but also militarily and economically.

“Now there is no way we can transfer the pipe through the Balkans to Europe. They have built a resistance fence in the form of Bulgaria and Greece, and Turkey is, to put it mildly, an inconvenient partner for us. Serbia is important from a military-strategic point of view. Therefore, when the Americans came there, the first thing they did was build bases that control the Eastern Mediterranean,” the general stated.

However, the task of returning to the region is now made easier for Russia by the fact that the West has significantly weakened.

“There is an impression that they have undermined their strength a little, and they will not be enough for everything. Russia is strengthening, and the West has a harder time now than in the 90s. In Syria, we have already shown that we are not going to simply leave traditional zones of influence, as was the case in the Balkans,” Reshetnikov concluded.

Political scientist Oleg Bondarenko does not believe at all that Russia has lost the Balkans.

“I don’t think that Russia has lost this region, because Russian influence in Serbia is not associated with a physical presence - the presence of serious economic relations or military bases. It is associated with the great cultural dominance and role that Russia played in Serbia. The fact that the NATO ring is narrowing around Serbia is a challenge for Russia, but not a factor reducing its influence. Perhaps, on the contrary, an attempt to tighten the NATO belt around Serbia will lead to a backlash,” Bondarenko said.

In his opinion, the Balkans for Russia are “the key to Europe.”

“Historically, Russia’s influence in this region has always been quite serious. Preserving it is an important guarantee of having the key to European affairs, which Moscow has practically not used so far, although it could,” Bondarenko concluded.