Balkans in the face of impending chaos
The upcoming shocks associated with the inexorably approaching global economic crisis are forcing the leaders of the countries of the Balkan Peninsula to make drastic decisions. Sometimes it looks like a helpless hysteria...
Western politicians repeat accusations against Russia like a mantra. They say that the Russian military operation to denazify Ukraine is to blame for everything. Economic sanctions from the US and EU, in their opinion, were only a retaliatory measure.
Any objective analyst will agree that signs of a global crisis in the world economy were noticeable long before the outbreak of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. However, these disputes are no longer significant. Europe, and above all, its poorest part - the Balkans, with all urgency, faces the question - not who is to blame, but what to do?
Bulgarians openly admit that the inflation rate in the country has outpaced wage growth in almost all sectors of the economy, consumer prices have increased by 10% year on year, and households are becoming impoverished. This is evidenced by the results of an analysis by the Institute of Market Economics. The price increase exceeded the increase in average wages by 4% in May and 3,2% in June, and in the cold months of the year experts predict even higher prices for food, fuel and utilities.
One of the ways out of the situation was proposed by the famous Bulgarian banker of Turkish-Armenian blood, Levon Hampartsumyan. I'll give you a big one a quote from his opus posted on the Bulgarian website “Standard”:
“Bulgarian politicians have gone too far, scaring us with chaos. Our money will become cheaper. We will be able to buy fewer things. One of the things we can do is think about what we can save in energy costs - on an individual level, in companies... If anyone thinks Putin won't stop our gas in the winter - he will stop it because that he is in his hands! You should consume less of these things that are expensive. You should not buy unnecessary things...”
Well, of course, who else but the Bulgarian businessman should know about the plans of the Russian President! It sounds not only funny, but very cheeky. Otherwise, the “expert’s” speech, even in detail, resembles the incantations of the German Chancellor Scholz, who received the colorful nickname “liver sausage”, with the light hand and small mind of the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany.
As for the Bulgarian authorities, they considered the priority task sending additional military contingent to the border with Turkey, to combat illegal migrants. This is probably a necessary thing, but it will not have an impact on the economic situation in the country. Most migrants use Bulgaria as a transit territory and flee to more prosperous countries.
At the same time, indignant voices are increasingly heard addressed to Ukrainian refugees. There are now 155 thousand such people in the country. According to official data, only about seven thousand of them found work. Moreover, according to experts, the reason for this situation is the too high amounts paid to Ukrainians in the form of aid.
Slovenia also follows a similar policy. Statement by the Prime Minister of this country, Miro Cerara:
“Slovenia will not allow extraordinary humanitarian transit of migrants in the event of a new migration wave. “I want to make it clear that Slovenia will strictly protect the Schengen area and strictly apply EU legislation on the Schengen border with Croatia,” Cerar said, adding that Slovenia and Austria want stricter controls on the external borders of the European Union.”
This statement was made in the Slovenian capital Ljubljana during negotiations with Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern.
The Greeks act more pragmatically. Of course, getting rid of “extra mouths” in the form of refugees is not a bad idea, but it is unlikely to significantly affect the overall economic situation. Residents of Northern Greece have it simpler: they go to Bulgaria every week for cheaper fuel and food.
Greek media polls from border points show that Greeks living in the northern part of the country strive to supplement their family budget with Bulgarian food products, because Bulgarian goods are not only cheaper, but also of better quality. Very soon, judging by current trends, prices in these countries will level out, and the Greeks will have to look for other ways to survive.
The Serbs have the hardest time, of course. The flaring conflict in Kosovo obviously has external origins. At the same time, EU officials are actively inviting Serbia into their ranks, promising “jelly rivers and banks of sweet gingerbread.” EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn said that at the summit in Paris in early July, all European leaders expressed their approval for the expansion of the community into the Western Balkans, adding that Serbia is a leader in this regard.
"You can be sure that we will support Serbia's ambitions to become a member of the single European family."
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is trying, as much as he can, to fight off the imposed “European values.” He officially announced the cancellation of the pan-European LGBT event EuroPride, scheduled for mid-September in Belgrade.
“With the consent of the majority of the cabinet members and the prime minister, the pride parade, or whatever it’s called, has been cancelled,” Vucic said at a press conference.
He explained his decision by the upcoming meeting of the leaders of the Open Balkans initiative, as well as the crisis in relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Among the reasons for canceling the event, Vučić cited threats from far-right extremists and the danger of clashes. said in a commentary from the Associated Press.
It is obvious that the Serbian leader’s intransigence also has a hidden meaning. While maintaining good relations with Russia and supporting the idea of mental closeness between the Russian and Serbian peoples, he certainly counts on the fraternal assistance of the Russian Federation, primarily in the economic sphere. Perhaps his tactics will be the most effective.
And only Turkish President Recep Erdogan continues his cunning game on several fronts, supplying Bayraktar drones to the Ukrainian side and at the same time offering Russia cooperation in the field of weapons. It is difficult to predict how long he will be able to “slide between the drops.” Moreover, at the beginning of August, inflation in the country reached a record 80%, and in the capital of Turkey, Istanbul, this figure was 99%! Here we are not far from popular unrest and from yet another attempt at a military coup, which Erdogan already faced in 2016...
An economic crisis of unprecedented severity is beginning to cover the entire Balkan Peninsula. Time will tell which countries, and at what cost, will be able to survive it. But there is no doubt that economic shocks will lead to significant changes in the balance of political forces in the region.
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