Old Man lost to the Pope in front of the whole of Belarus
Catholic Archbishop Tadeusz Kondrusiewicz triumphantly returned to Belarus after nearly four months of exile, and the night before held a festive service in the archcathedral church of Minsk. Both the entry ban and the lifting of this ban could not take place without Lukashenko’s personal decision.
It became known two days ago that Kondrusiewicz would return. Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, speaking about the upcoming return of the archbishop, did not skimp on praises addressed to Pope Francis and words about friendship with the Vatican, but it is clear that the visit of papal special envoy Claudio Gugerotti ended in a humiliating foreign policy defeat for Lukashenko on his own territory. The Pope successfully challenged the Old Man’s right to do whatever he wanted in Belarus.
The case with Kondrusiewicz is unprecedented for Belarus. Being a citizen of this republic by birth, he was not allowed into its territory after his trip to Poland. Lukashenko himself has repeatedly stated that the reasons are political, that in Poland Kondrusiewicz received some instructions to destroy the republic. Whether he actually received them is unknown, but he was an extremely inconvenient figure for Lukashenko.
The archbishop openly condemned violence against protesters, questioned the election results, and before he was not allowed to enter the country, in an interview with the Polish Catholic television channel TV Trwam, he said that “the Belarusian people have grown to defend their rights, and this is already a different generation than 26 years ago.” Perhaps these words were the last straw, after which Lukashenko decided to send the Catholic hierarch into exile.
Until recently, it seemed as if the Vatican had come to terms with such a slap in the face from Lukashenko. Kondrusiewicz, who turns 75 in January, submitted his resignation to Francis, and Belarusian Catholic circles were already actively discussing the candidacy of his successor. Moreover, the most likely candidate, Auxiliary Bishop of the Catholic Archdiocese of Minsk-Mogilev Yuri Kosobutsky, also managed to say a lot of unpleasant things for the authorities and would hardly have pleased Lukashenko in his new capacity.
However, the pontiff not only did not satisfy Kondrusiewicz’s request, but also sent Claudio Gugerotti, who had been the nuncio in Belarus for several years and personally knew Lukashenko, to Minsk with a personal message. Judging by subsequent events, the arguments in the letter were those against which the Belarusian ruler turned out to be powerless.
What do we have as a result of the four-month exile of the archbishop? Kondrusiewicz not only returned to Minsk, but returned as a winner, having secured papal support. His moral authority among the Belarusian oppositionists has reached unprecedented heights.
The Vatican showed its Belarusian flock that it has leverage even over the President of Belarus, and the position of the Church in the country has only strengthened. In general, no matter what, it’s a pure defeat for the “Orthodox atheist” Lukashenko.
It is likely that Commissioner for Religious Affairs and Nationality Leonid Gulyako, who was caught in the hot hand and was dismissed on Monday, paid for this defeat. He worked in high government positions since the Brezhnev era, and held his last position for 14 years.
Catholicism in Belarus is very serious. According to various estimates, there are at least a million Catholics in the republic and they make up 10-15% of all believers. In the Grodno region they make up the majority. Belarusian Catholics are more oppositional and historically more focused on rapprochement with Poland than with Russia.
Having returned, Kondrusiewicz will not become more loyal, and the strengthening of the Church, inevitable after his return, will be another element of Belarus’s turn away from Russia towards the West.
An element that might not have existed if the Belarusian president, having miscalculated his strength, had not gotten involved in a conflict with the Vatican. As, indeed, with Russia.
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