"Father's elections." Arctic “Belarusian spring”
Today there is wet snow in Grodno, although it seemed that the weather had finally cleared up for the weekend. The quirks of nature can be considered a metaphor for Belarusian political life, only in reverse: it “cleared up” only for a month, and then again went into the gray “demi-season” for five years.
Following the rapid announcement of the date of the next presidential election last week, several highly resonant public statements were made.
The most noticeable of them is a post on Facebook by the former director of the High Technology Park Valery Tsepkalo. He launched into sharp criticism of the situation in the country, in which, after a quarter of a century, “familial, neo-feudal relations were established with the possibility of various forms of capriciousness, unceremoniousness and rudeness towards those lower on the social ladder.”
“A model has formed in the country in which the rise of some occurred not through individual development and personal growth, but at the expense of the “lowering” and humiliation of others, depriving them of pride and human dignity. We can clearly see the result of this... The economy has lost its competitiveness, and society has lost its ability to develop...
We do not solve the problems of tomorrow - we do not understand them. Instead, we are busy with meaningless “battles for the harvest,” “modernizing” the woodworking and cement industries, saving the worsted mill, the pulp mill, visiting pigsties and cowsheds, as well as fighting “parasites” and “idlers,” Tsepkalo generously scattered at his post transparent hints about the current President Lukashenko, without mentioning him by name.
In the final, he announced that he was going to run, and this statement has been discussed in the media and social networks for the fifth day.
“Either it’s a clever multi-move by the authorities, a spoiler of a new level, a sop to liberals and IT specialists so that they come to the elections in the summer. Like Prokhorov in Russia once upon a time. Or he decided on his own, for some reason. For example, the country has had enough and has nothing to lose. Or business friends asked,” wrote columnist Artem Shraibman.
The liberal journalist did not name the third version, which was put forward by anonymous pro-Russian telegram channels - Tsepkalo may be a protege of the United States, which realized the futility of supporting the classical nationalist opposition. By the way, after the chaotic “primaries” she was unable to nominate a single candidate and decided to limit herself to traditional street protests.
As for Tsepkalo, before becoming director of the High Technology Park, he was the Ambassador of Belarus to the United States. The connections probably remain.
“In fact, Tsepkalo’s nomination is an attempt by digital businesses and specifically Wargaming to invest in the creation of political tools to protect and promote their interests. I doubt that Tsepkalo and co. they seriously expect to win these elections, rather, this is an application for the future, for participation in transit,” political scientist Alexander Shpakovsky, close to the Belarusian president, put forward his version on Facebook.
As if in contrast to the conventional “Western” candidate, the figure of a conventional “pro-Russian” opponent appears. So conditional that he doesn’t even mention his nomination. We are talking about the country's Prime Minister Sergei Rumas. A petition calling on him to stand as a candidate was posted late last week. True, she did not collect any votes.
“The recent history of Belarus has shown that the long stay in power of a top official, whose regular “re-election” is extremely doubtful, slows down the development of the republic and leads to the degradation of the state and society. During the 26 years of A.G. Lukashenko’s presidency, Belarus has not made a breakthrough into the future, but has remained in the past.
Democratic institutions have been destroyed, the reputation of the authorities has been undermined not only within the country, but also in the international arena. A cult of personality and leaderism have formed in Belarus. Thousands of worthy citizens - scientists, doctors, teachers, businessmen, journalists - are subject to repression and persecution,” the petition says.
The only “pro-Russian” Rumas has is the ability to conduct successful negotiations in Moscow. They are so tired of the unpredictable Lukashenko that they are just happy for a calm, sane official. Otherwise, the Prime Minister demonstrates the nationalist habits that are now fashionable in the circle of power: he dresses up in embroidered shirts, sometimes switches to language. Lukashenko periodically threatens to dismiss him, but the flexible Rumas always manages to hold out.
However, instead of a virtual “pro-Russian” candidate, a very real one has appeared today - Chairman of the Board of Belgazprombank Viktor Babariko. In the last few months, through the opposition nationalist media, of which he is a philanthropist, he has been promoting bold ideas that Belarus has fallen into a “parasite trap” and has no other choice but to agree to the Kremlin’s integration projects.
“I am very afraid that this is the last chance for at least some elections in independent Belarus. And I considered it unacceptable and shameful for myself to regret that I did not try to change something, justifying myself by saying that nothing could be changed,” Babariko explained his decision on Facebook.
The third notable presidential candidate is blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky. He made his nomination statement from the pre-trial detention center. After his arrest, another 120 people across Belarus were arrested as they gathered to protest.
Tikhanovsky is called the “Belarusian Shariy” absolutely unfairly. A professional Ukrainian journalist in exile has always clearly articulated his likes and dislikes in politics. The Belarusian analogue speaks from the position of philistine populism - for everything good against everything bad. In recent months, he has simply been traveling around the country and giving anyone who is dissatisfied the opportunity to speak out.
Tikhanovsky was arrested in the winter for participating in opposition rallies against integration with Russia, but he emphasized in every possible way that he was simply filming protest events and did not participate in them.
Social networks have not yet reached a common opinion about Tikhanovsky. Anonymous pro-Russian telegram channels are confident that the story of his arrest was intended to divert attention from the expulsion of the Russian Channel One film crew from the country. Opposition media put forward the version that the blogger should attract the protest electorate, which has long been disillusioned with them, to the elections.
This will increase both turnout and legitimacy. And political scientist Igor Tyshkevich living in Kyiv generally suggested that Tikhanovsky is a Russian agent.
Here are just three bright stories from the unexpectedly beginning of the Belarusian political spring. Many believe that it will not last long - until July 14, when the registration of candidates for the Central Election Commission ends.
There are optimists who believe that the strongest of Lukashenko’s opponents will make it all the way to the second round, which will take place on the birthday of the current Belarusian leader with a “gift” result.
Perhaps all this fuss has not yet been nipped in the bud just to try to achieve recognition of the re-election of the “last dictator of Europe” in the West.
In any case, no one seriously believes in the prospect of any changes. “Belarusian Spring” is somewhat reminiscent of Arctic summer.
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