Belarus is promised war. You can forget about peaceful protest

August 9 marked the second anniversary of the presidential elections in Belarus. Both sides celebrated it with large-scale events. Tikhanovskaya gathered her supporters (or at least relative supporters) in Vilnius for the “New Belarus” conference. Lukashenko’s supporters gathered at the Kupala Theater in Minsk for the Forum of Patriotic Forces, and Old Man himself gathered senior officials at the Government House for an extended meeting of the Council of Ministers.

I don’t want to get involved in a dispute about the actual election results. In that day I voted against everyone, and I have complaints about the vote counting procedure, but I am also confident that Lukashenko won both the electoral victory and, as they say, according to the Hamburg count. And looking at what is happening, I am glad that it happened this way. The anniversary of an important event is always a good reason to take stock. Perhaps I'll take advantage of this opportunity.

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Lukashenko lost the election campaign itself. At the beginning of 2020, everyone was sure that another easy walk awaited him, like in 2016. The opposition was mired in internecine squabbles and was unable to nominate a single candidate; the situation in the country was more or less stable and no competitive candidates were visible on the horizon. Lukashenko habitually paid little attention to the election campaign itself. He traveled a lot around the country, held meetings, and appeared on TV every day. Such media resources have always been more than enough, but in 2020 several factors intervened.

Firstly, the Internet has finally defeated television. And the bulk of the politicized audience was concentrated there. And on the Internet, the position of power has traditionally been weak.

Secondly, he made mistakes – staged an economically destructive adventure with alternative oil, strengthened the anti-Russian bias in his rhetoric, made strange, frightening to many, statements on Covid, and delayed until the last minute the publication of the program.

Thirdly, in addition to the proven deck of old oppositionists, new people ran for election, playing tough, politically technological and each in their own way. The Belarusian authorities have always had problems with political technologies; relying on administrative resources and organizations like the Belarusian Republican Youth Union and Belaya Rus did not work against them. As a result, two main competitors ended up behind bars.

A combination of mistakes and powerful political technologies that worked against Lukashenko led to a massive protest vote. Political strategists hammered one thought into the heads of the electorate - even for the hell of a bald man, if only not for him. The role of the “bald devil” was played by the wife of one of the detained applicants. As a candidate, she was as clear as a baby's conscience. No experience in politics. No management experience. A simple housewife. Complete zero and a blank slate. And the political strategists managed to push this blank sheet of paper onto the voter, drawing everyone what they wanted to see.

The result is known. Voting, protests, riots, attempted mass strikes. And again political strategists and Western puppeteers worked. Promoted Telegram channels called for protests, instructed how to properly participate in riots, and coordinated road blockages. Political strategists broadcast attractive images - a peaceful protest, marches of students, women and pensioners, ribbons, umbrellas, touching hugs and kisses against the background of ranks of security forces with shields, a white-blooded bride in a wedding dress, who turned out to be not a bride at all. The protest was handled competently. Mi-mi-peaceful. Despite the clashes and barricades that had already taken place.

At that time, many people sympathized with this protest. A significant part of the population was indeed tired of Lukashenko, and then this part was given a lady, albeit a clueless one, who promised not to stay in office for long, to quickly hold elections and return to her husband and cutlets. They demonstrated how many people want her to do this. There are even more people interested. This was the peak. If Lukashenko had turned out to be Yanukovych then, Belarus would now be Ukraine. But Lukashenko turned out to be Lukashenko and turned the situation around. Rough, with blood. But he broke it. And subsequent events showed that he was right.

The fascination with the opposition dummy did not last long. Now the opposition was making mistakes and losing popularity. Belarus has certain problems with sociology. Independent political polls are simply prohibited, and those that are allowed rather convey to the population the government’s vision of what opinion this society should have. Therefore, in the absence of a stamp...

After the events of 2020, the English Chatham House became interested in the opinion of Belarusians. It does not have the opportunity to conduct surveys according to all the rules in Belarus, and the far from impartial Grigory Astapenia is involved in the Belarusian direction there, but there are simply no other surveys. And even this service results in a twofold reduction in the number of protest supporters in a year and a half. If in September 2020, according to her data, there were 56-57 percent of such people, then in January 2022 there were already 28-30.

Let me remind you that this is January. And it’s not about the power of Lukashenko’s propaganda. By the way, it is quite clumsy, and the Internet is still controlled by the opposition. It’s just that during this time, people saw the deception with promised compensation for dismissals and imprisonment, the eternal talking shop, internecine squabbles in the opposition and its inability to take at least some effective action. After January, there were calls to commit sabotage and collect intelligence for Ukraine, glorifying militants from the “regiments” named after. Kalinovsky and "Pagonya". The protest became less and less peaceful and not at all cute. Instead of girls in white, bearded thugs in camouflage became its symbol. Of course, the attractiveness of this symbol is not at all the same.

The last step was yesterday's conference in Vilnius. There, the “peaceful” protest was publicly put to rest. There was a lot of talk about the power scenario and it was already perceived as mainstream. The deputy commander of the “regiment” “Pagonya” Prokopyev even promised to capture Minsk by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 3 days, without causing protests. As a result of the conference, even a special person was appointed in Tikhanovskaya’s “office” in charge of “de-occupation” - he turned out to be familiar to many from the annoying unsolicited TsIPSO advertising on YouTube. He is not yet calling for the Armed Forces to invite him, but the very appearance of such a person in the circle is very alarming. Lebedko’s words at the conference were a voice crying in the desert, saying that relying on a power strategy is sharply reducing the audience of the opposition.

_{How much it reduces! It's time to forget about peaceful protest. Now our opposition has directly stated that in order to come to power it is ready to declare war on its own people. The real one. After this, the political prospects of such opposition can be put to rest. And it’s time for Lukashenko to celebrate another victory over her.}