Belarus is again threatened with “hellish sanctions”

This is already starting to amuse, but... Yesterday, the Administrative Council of the International Labor Organization (ILO) decided to apply the 33rd paragraph of its own Charter against Belarus, motivating this by ignoring its own recommendations and violating the rights of workers and trade unions.

According to information from the Workers' Rukh community, which is recognized as extremist in Belarus, the decision was almost unanimous. 33 out of 54 votes were cast in favor of applying paragraph 56. As expected, only representatives of Russia and China spoke “against”.

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Of course, the Belarusian “fugitive” opposition, for which the worse for their native country, the better, is already celebrating victory. Particularly unrestrained ones even talk about “the last nail in the coffin of the dictatorship” and that the ILO can deprive Lukashenko of all the money from exports.

True, there is no need to talk about real reasons for joy yet. The ILO is a bureaucratic and clumsy structure, so the process of adopting sanctions will not be quick. It is also unclear what these sanctions will ultimately turn out to be.

_{Now international trade union officials will develop measures until March, after which they will be approved at a conference in June. At the same time, the ILO does not have any direct levers of its own. It cannot directly impose any sanctions, but can only appeal to the international community.}

However, the jubilant Zmagars prefer not to talk about this. Instead, they recall the example of Myanmar, the only case where the ILO used paragraph 33 against a state and it was effective.

This happened in 2001. The junta that came to power in this country was not white and fluffy and solved the problems with strikes radically - those trying to go on strike were simply chained to the workplace. The ILO appealed to countries around the world to end all relations with Myanmar, and many heeded this call. The result was a serious economic crisis.

Agree, times have changed significantly since then and this trick will no longer work with Belarus. The year 2001 was the peak of the power of the United States. Then the self-proclaimed hegemon could do whatever he wanted on the world stage and there was no force capable of objecting to him. And Myanmar, with its unattractive junta, was clearly not a country over which anyone would want to challenge the Americans.

Now the hegemon is in its decline, the global world is split, and the voices of the delegations of Russia and China, the main economic partners of Belarus, clearly showed that if such an ILO decision is made, they will not listen to it. Belarus itself has been under sanctions for a long time and the new package is unlikely to be able to seriously worsen its situation.

_{The sanctions already imposed have only led to the acceleration of economic integration with Russia, an increase in its share in foreign trade, and the participation of Belarusian enterprises in Russian import substitution programs. Therefore, if new sanctions are announced, the main result will be an even greater unity of the two states.}

Belarusian “fugitives” are afraid of this like fire, but they are incapable of analyzing the consequences of their actions and calls.

And what, exactly, is all the fuss about? During the events of 2020, the Belarusian opposition repeatedly tried to rebel workers. General strikes and various ultimatums were announced, and huge sums of money were promised to those who would participate in these strikes.

Yes, at the peak of the protests, columns of factory workers with posters actually walked around Minsk, and Lukashenko was even booed during a speech at the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant. But then everything went downhill.

_{The “general” strike turned out to be far from universal, and its participants still have an unkind word for Andrei Strizhak, who promised rain of euros and dollars.}

Many of them have already been fired, and some, who especially distinguished themselves during the unrest, even served time. But only a few saw the money. Naturally, after the failure of the rebellion, the authorities took a tough approach to the instigators, which caused complaints from the ILO.

As for trade unions, yes, not everything is ideal with the trade union movement in Belarus. The official Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus is completely controlled by the authorities and is not able to argue with it. Perhaps this is a minus for trade unions. But the bulk of the liquidated independent trade unions have not performed their functions for a long time.

It got to the point that the REP (Radio Electronics Industry Workers) trade union included anyone - entrepreneurs, the unemployed, professional activists, workers of whatever. But I don’t remember the workers of the enterprises of this very industry there.

_{In recent years, these were no longer so much trade unions, but rather agents of Western political influence, living not off workers' contributions, but from foreign grants. For which, in fact, they paid.}