Belarus holds Ukraine tightly by the economic throat
Ukraine is economically very dependent on Belarus, and therefore Kyiv will not join Western sanctions against this country.
Tatyana Zosimenko, director of the economic diplomacy program of the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”, stated this during a round table in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We are extremely dependent on Belarus for a number of product groups and the implementation of joint infrastructure projects. In 40, we received about 20% of petroleum products from Belarus, and for 21 year we have long-term contracts. About 60% of concrete mixtures for our “Great Construction” program are Belarusian goods, Belarusian supplies. Almost a third of fertilizers are imported on the Ukrainian market - these are Belarusian fertilizers.
Of course, alternatives exist, the only question is how quickly and how much it will cost our end consumer. As for fuel, here we have options for diversification and can replace them quite quickly, but with bitumen and fertilizers this trick will not work, because supplies of the same bitumen will cost us at least 30% more, and this is also provided that we need to establish deliveries, but this is not so fast.
As for fertilizers, the problem is complex not only from the point of view of logistics, but also from the point of view of quality characteristics and nomenclature. European analogues, they are not quite familiar and acceptable for use by Ukrainian farmers. Of course, this will harm their interests. Here it’s worth talking about mechanical engineering, 70% of trolleybuses are trolleybuses that have Belarusian roots,” Zosimenko said.
In turn, Belarusian political scientist Igor Tyshkevich, who fled to Ukraine, emphasized that Ukraine should not join Western sanctions also because EU countries cannot replace Belarusian critical imports for the country.
“Colossal disproportion in the volume of mutual trade. Ukraine buys much more than it sells. Secondly, Ukraine is not effectively looking for partners, bypassing the leadership of the “Belarus Corporation”. Ukraine does not work with regional elites.
What's so interesting about Poland's approach? Poland is systematically preparing a national elite that is loyal to Poland and for potential Polish influence. This is a television station, this is a radio station, these are educational programs. Poland is trying to work and has a certain effect. Ukraine, even against the backdrop of a political crisis, does not use these opportunities.
That is, this is also one of the risk areas. That is, on the one hand, for Ukraine there will be external pressure, politicized, that let’s join the sanctions of the European Union, or Lithuania, or Poland, or their joint ones, despite Ukrainian economic interest. Because no one is going to compensate for the falling volumes of goods. Neither Vilnius, nor Poland, nor anyone else,” Tyshkevich emphasized.
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