Belarus hopes to receive compensation from Russia
Belarus is negotiating to receive compensation from Russia for the so-called tax maneuver and the supply of significant volumes of oil contaminated with organochlorines via the Druzhba oil pipeline.
The Minister of Economy of the Republic of Belarus Dmitry Krutoy stated this in an interview with the Belarus 1 TV channel.
“When calculating the 2019 forecast, we deliberately did not take into account possible compensation for the tax maneuver. And we intend to adhere to the same policy for 2020. Negotiations with colleagues from the Russian Federation are at an active stage. Having no final decisions on both the oil sector and gas prices, we proceed from the most pessimistic estimates that exist today. If we manage to reach an agreement with our Russian colleagues, this will be an additional plus for our macroeconomic assessment,” Krutoy said.
Despite the “pessimistic assessments,” the government of Belarus has not yet reduced its forecast for GDP growth by 4%, although various international structures estimate it at an average of 2%.
“I believe that until we receive the results of the first half of the year, we have no reason to revise the forecast. Now experts are calculating figures on the possible harvest. Also, this story with dirty oil, how much it will affect transit conditions. This is the transport sector of wholesale trade and the manufacturers themselves,” the minister noted.
According to him, possible compensation from the Russian Federation will be “insignificant,” and the government of Belarus is preparing some steps that are not given the “character of publicity.”
The tax maneuver in the oil industry of the Russian Federation, which provides for the gradual zeroing of the export duty on oil and an increase in the tax rate on its production, is one of the controversial issues for Minsk and Moscow. Additional costs for Belarus arise due to the expected increase in the price of Russian oil and a reduction in export duties on petroleum products. Minsk estimated its losses in total over six years at up to $11 billion, and in 2019 at $400 million (at an oil price of $70 per barrel).
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