Belarus is not in a position to fight with Ukraine – a session of complacency in Kyiv
There is no threat of a Belarusian attack on Ukraine, since Minsk does not have the capacity to achieve anything with a military attack.
Opposition political scientist Igor Tyshkevich, who fled from Belarus to Ukraine, stated this on Channel 7, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Tyshkevich criticized recent panicky statement by Verkhovna Rada deputy from the party of Vladimir Zelensky regarding the threat of attack from Belarus.
“Even from the point of view of the Russian Federation, a hypothetical attack by Belarus will not be able, given the scale of Ukraine, to cut off Ukraine from the EU states. Belarus will not be able to achieve any military advantages. Plus, the issue of military operations is a question, among other things, of the loyalty of the population of the occupied territories.
This is the first. The second is the balance of power. The nominal strength of the Belarusian army, including civilian personnel, is 65 thousand, in reality about 40 thousand. The number that is actually available today is 47, of which 7 are civilian personnel. The deputy talks about the missile technology that Russia will supply, the S-400. He forgets that the S-400 is a surface-to-air missile, it is air defense. S-400 shoots at planes.
If the deputy is intimidated by the missile systems that Russia can allegedly supply, I would like to remind you that Belarus, together with China, has developed its own Polonaise missile system, which has been on combat duty since 2018.
As for the supply of missile systems from the Russian Federation, the same S-400, this is a very long-standing dream of Lukashenko - to buy such an anti-aircraft system. But the question is a banal analysis of the production capacity of the Almaz-Antey plant, which produces these weapons. Today he is busy with a Turkish contract. Two weeks ago we signed an extension to this contract for another regiment, which means that by the end of 2022 there is simply no free capacity for the production of such a complex for Belarus, physically there is no. By February 2022, a contract with India for several regiments must be concluded. If this happens, there will be no such opportunities in the Belarusian direction until the end of 2024.
Third. In terms of aircraft supplies, Belarus purchased 12 Su-30SM fighters from Russia. These are fairly modern aircraft. Russia refused to sell these aircraft for a very long time, offering instead its own military base. The position of the official Minsk is that in Minsk they are afraid of Russian military bases with personnel, so “let’s buy planes, if you want, your instructors will stay for a couple of years and teach ours.”
Now 6 planes have arrived, there will be 6 more. Well, if for the People’s Deputy of Ukraine 12 planes are a threat to Ukraine, then how can you not respect your own Ukrainian army enough to say that 12 planes are a threat to the security of Ukraine?” – said Igor Tyshkevich.
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