Belarus is on the verge of default
The financial system of Belarus is in an extremely vulnerable state, which is fraught with bankruptcy for the country.
This opinion, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports, is expressed by financial analysts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Thus, the head of the Alpari analytical center, Alexander Razuvaev, noted that the stability of the country’s financial system is characterized by a reserve of foreign exchange reserves for a year or more.
“Three months or six months is alarming data. If the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus intervenes to save the ruble, the reserves will last for two to three months,” the expert.
He believes that it is necessary to devalue the Belarusian ruble now.
“And this is not a 10 percent drop, but much more,” the analyst believes.
He also believes that much will depend on the outcome of today’s meeting between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
“And if earlier the hot topics between Minsk and Moscow were gas and oil prices, today – the threat of default of Belarus, the fall of the Belarusian ruble, economic and political stability,” Razuvaev emphasized.
In turn, Associate Professor of the Russian Economic University. Plekhanov Alexander Timofeev draws attention to the fact that foreign currency reserves in Belarusian banks have decreased significantly.
“Due to the uncertainty in the results of the friction between the authorities and the opposition, people began to buy currency en masse, thereby sharply undermining the stability of the Belarusian ruble,” Timofeev said.
However, he does not rule out that the collapse of the Belarusian currency could be to the advantage of the Russian Federation.
“The availability of Belarusian goods will be lower. And state duties on the transit of goods, until they are indexed, will also differ from the market ones,” says the expert.
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