Belarus is sliding towards civil war
The self-proclaimed “president” of Belarus, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, got into trouble with her ultimatum. The nationwide strike that was promised to her did not take place. Belarusian propaganda, and many Russian experts, used approximately these words to comment on the ultimatum announced on October 26 by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. 10 days have passed. It's time to sum up the interim results. Was the unrealized ultimatum really a failure of the opposition?
At first glance, it was so. Despite the cheerful statements of the opposition, including Tikhanovskaya, its ultimatum did not achieve the declared results, and could not achieve it. The strike was far from widespread. A few private shops, catering and service establishments went on strike. At large state-owned enterprises, which provide the main stream of taxes and foreign trade revenue, the number of strikers was measured, at best, in dozens and did not make any difference at all.
Students were the most vocal, but their fuss did not affect the state of the economy at all. Of course, there was no blocking of all roads either. But you don't need to be a great strategist to understand that such goals were unattainable. And there is no need to assume that Tikhanovskaya’s headquarters is entirely filled with idiots who did not understand this. They understood and played their game. And, if we sum up the balance of the week, it turns out that if anyone was in the black at the end of the week, it was only the opposition. The rest just lost.
The protests, despite the failed strike, not only did not subside, but also increased in radicalism. The “rail war” has become a widespread phenomenon - every day there are dozens of reports about the closure of railway tracks in order to cause disruptions in the train schedule. The authorities accuse those involved in this almost of terrorism, but so far they have not succeeded in restoring order on the railway.
Security forces are increasingly becoming targets of radicals. They are fired upon, their cars and buildings are burned. Such news literally blows the minds of some mentally unstable people. The news that a local resident in Grodno read the news and went to destroy police cars is indicative. Excessive violence on the part of security forces is increasingly causing retaliatory violence. At the end of last week, border guards detained a group of anarchists led by Igor Olinevich, who participated in a similar attack on the Russian embassy back in 2010. The anarchists were charged with terrorism and tried to make them look like the only troublemakers, blaming them for all the arson incidents. But the anarchists are in jail, and the incidents continue.
Not only the opposition is radicalizing, but also the government. Lukashenko has already switched to military terminology, ordering “not to take prisoners in apartments” and to tear off the hands of those who touch a military man during protests. No one’s hands have been torn off yet, but there has been more violence and measures against protesters have become much tougher. For example, criminal cases have been opened against all detained participants in the march on November 1, which was neither massive nor particularly radical, under the article of mass riots. 231 people were detained. What adds to the gloomy irony is that people came to honor the memory of the victims of Stalin’s repressions, but ended up under Lukashenko’s repressions.
This is a kind of historical continuity. Protesting students are also dealt with harshly - as of yesterday, 138 people were expelled from universities “for politics.” And it seems that the repression will not stop there - those who remain are holding actions of solidarity with those expelled, and tens and hundreds of teachers are signing petitions in their defense. Such measures certainly do not add to the authority of the authorities, but Lukashenko is not particularly bothered by this - he clearly expects to hold on to bayonets.
With bayonets, by the way, not everything is clear either. Last week, Lukashenko dismissed three major security officials - Secretary of the Security Council Vakuklchik, Minister of Internal Affairs Karaev and his deputy Barsukov. All three received appointments with a clear demotion, becoming assistants to the president in two western regions and Minsk. On top of everything else, they were fired from service in the law enforcement agencies. According to the most logical version, in this way Lukashenko is trying to build a duplicate vertical of power. In addition to the bureaucracy, there will also be a security one. It seems he no longer trusts officials alone. But even in security circles, the effect of this resignation will not be in favor of Lukashenko. If Karaev, who posed as “the last soldier of the emperor” and said a lot of loyal game on TV, fell into disgrace, then what can we say about others, not so zealous?
In general, the opposition failed the ultimatum, but only grew stronger after it. The authorities and the people are the losers. The first, with tenacity worthy of better use, is pushing itself towards collapse, by its actions expanding and strengthening the protest base. The second can only watch how the government and the opposition are pushing the country towards a civil war, in which ordinary citizens will have to die.
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