Belarus covered the path of two Ukrainian Maidans in a week
The situation in Belarus is developing in approximately the same way as it developed in Ukraine in November-December 2004 and 2013.
Vladimir Volya, an international affairs expert at Ukrainian Analysis and Policy Management, told a PolitNavigator correspondent about this.
“In Belarus, the situation developed approximately the same way as it did on the eve of 2004 in Ukraine - the opposition is weak, the elite has not yet divided into different camps. The brutal dispersal of protesters by security forces led to the fact that the opposition received an unexpected bonus in the form of support from many citizens. The importance of the opposition has grown, how much is still unclear, but will soon become clear.
In addition, the situation in Belarus, which was similar to the pre-Maidan period of 2004 in Ukraine, abruptly “jumped” to November-December 2013. Over the course of a week, Belarus went through a path similar to the development of events in Kyiv from November 30 to December 31, 2013.
Without brutal police actions, the protests in Belarus would not have been so large-scale. This also has a parallel to what happened here on November 30, 2013 and after that. And it is not entirely clear whether this was done intentionally or whether such cruelty is explained by the state of law enforcement officers who simply lost control of themselves. Thus, as in Ukraine, law enforcement brutality provoked a surge in protests.
But in Belarus there is no division into groups with different worldviews, as in Ukraine - Western Ukraine, Donbass, the rest of Ukraine. And the post-Soviet worldview dominates there,” the political scientist said.
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