Belarusian Maidan activists began forming units for a future civil war

The Belarusian political emigration launched a new movement with the ambitious name “Mobilization Plan “Peramoga” (translated from Belarusian as “Victory”). The plan was developed by the initiative BYPOL and the Situational Analytical Center created by Tikhanovskaya’s headquarters, supported by Tikhanovskaya, Latushko and Tsepkalo (a rare coincidence) and widely advertised by many opposition telegram channels.

The reaction of pro-government forces to the plan is restrained. Mostly she is demonstratively skeptical.

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“The opposition again suggests that Belarusians go underground (and sit there like rats), since getting involved in an open conflict with the authorities is “ineffective and untimely,” writes one of the propaganda TG channels. Others post lists of those who allegedly used a specially created telegram bot and signed up for the “militia” with names, surnames, addresses and telephone numbers.

Is it as frivolous as they say? Firstly, the published lists of “militias” are obviously fake. The Peramogi bot does not ask questions that can be used to calculate this data. Therefore, the lists are either fictitious or obtained using a fake bot with a name that differs from the real one by one letter and requires you to indicate a phone number when registering. These phone numbers are used by the Belarusian special services to “break through” everything else. Probably, problems may await those who indicated their telephone numbers in this way, but the oppositionists have already figured out what to counter this - in their chats they propose to “feed” the telephone numbers of Lukashenko’s supporters who have appeared to the fake bot. In general, if the matter is not put on hold, someone will have an exciting job separating the “sheep from the goats.”

In fact, I would not be ironic about the new initiative. Of course, neither the theater-goer Latushko nor the housewife Tikhanovskaya have so far demonstrated powerful organizational abilities and have demonstrated their unsuitability for the role of leaders of the revolution quite convincingly. But the handwriting here is clearly not theirs.

The organizers call the Peramoga mobilization plan an underground people's militia, which will be formed according to the principle of military registration. They call the task of Peramoga the implementation of the “Strategic Operation to ensure law and order.” The bot that recruits “militias” asks for very specific things – locality, place of work, field of activity (security forces are a priority), military experience, military specialty, etc.

Having lost peaceful protests and never transformed sporadic street riots into full-fledged urban guerrilla violence, the Belarusian opposition began openly forming units for a future civil war. Well, or not the Belarusian opposition. This is all very different from her previous creativity. I would not be surprised if I learn that the authors of this plan do not have Belarusian passports. Instead of Manilovism and reasoning, there are clear military-style plans for organizing a full-fledged guerrilla war, or even a military rebellion.

It is not for nothing that the organizers first of all turn to the security forces, who are capable of starting an armed confrontation, and to officials who can, if not seize power locally, then create managerial chaos, sabotaging the decisions of senior management. All this is immediately built into a clear structure in which everyone will find a place and a mobilization order. To understand the seriousness of the intentions, just compare this with the widely publicized Feduta-Kostusev “conspiracy.” Here you are not old people in the humanities, but quite serious guys.

Moreover, all this force is supposed to be directed not only to the fight against Lukashenko, but also against Russia if it provides him with forceful support. Among the tasks of “Peramogi” are “Preventing the outbreak of internal conflict by the destructive forces of neighboring states within the country” and “preventing the seizure of border areas by illegal armed groups and the penetration of destructive forces across the State Border.” In general, along with the striking force of the emerging civil war, the future Belarusian “Azov” and the “Right Sector” are simultaneously being created.