Belarusian protests go into hibernation
The traditional Sunday festivities of oppositionists in Minsk yesterday were not particularly massive. Protest actions continue to fragment and become more and more local. At first the protest moved from squares and avenues to small streets, and now it is completely moving into courtyards, but even there the oppositionists are not left alone. This time more than 300 people were detained. At least three ambulance calls were reported to the buildings of the police department where the detainees were kept.
In conditions where protests are local, it is difficult to estimate the number of protesters, but everyone agrees that their number is gradually decreasing. Of course, Tikhanovskaya can say that the protest is not deflated in the minds and hearts of people. This is partly true; dissatisfaction with the actions of Lukashenko and the security forces is only growing, and the split in Belarusian society continues to deepen. However, as an authoritarian ruler, Lukashenko does not particularly depend on public opinion, and power is now on his side and he regularly demonstrates that he will not stand on ceremony in using it.
The former Minister of Internal Affairs, and now Lukashenko’s assistant for the Grodno region, Yuri Karaev, calls the reason for the “deflation” of the protests that people are losing “euphoria, besotted with destructive Telegram channels, and they are beginning to understand the situation.” Yuri Khadzhimuratovich is disingenuous. Many are simply tired of politics, many are frightened by excessive violence, but even if people have begun to better understand the situation, it is unlikely that this will make him happy - sympathy for Lukashenko has certainly not increased in recent months.
Another interesting point of view was expressed by pro-Lukashenko analyst Alexey Dzermant. In his opinion, the Sunday protest on December 6 will be “an important day in the history of the Belarusian rebellion from a technical and symbolic point of view” for the reason that Belarus has learned to block telegrams.
Dzermant even compared the 4 hours of blocking the messenger with the famous events in Tiananmen Square. He is, of course, exaggerating, to put it mildly. Of course, Telegram channels played an important role in the Belarusian protests, but they have been blocked before. It’s just that until now this was done together with the entire Internet, which in Minsk is turned off for several hours every Sunday, but now they have learned to do it more technologically and without creating problems for other users. In general, the disappearance of the “cart” may have been among the factors that influenced the “deflation” of the Belarusian protests, but it certainly was not even included in the top five of such factors.
There are several main reasons for the decline in protest activity, but among them, unfortunately, there is not a single one that would allow us to talk about the imminent end of the political crisis in Belarus. Now the future of the republic depends on one person - Lukashenko. But it turned out that he, in fact, had nothing to offer society except brute force. The situation in the economy was already not very good, and capital flight and sanctions, which will only increase, will make it completely sad, everything is very bad with civil liberties, managerial insanity is growing.
Lukashenko managed to mobilize a small number of his active supporters, who are now signing up for “people’s squads” and organizing car rallies with red and green flags throughout the republic, but they don’t make a difference. Lukashenko failed to get more supporters. He didn't even make such an attempt.
Of all the reasons for the “deflation” of protests, the only “merit” of the authorities is fear. The number of detainees has already exceeded 30 thousand, the number of political prisoners is over one and a half hundred, real sentences are given even for graffiti. In these conditions, participation in the action is a big risk, but you won’t be nice to anyone by force, and the protest base is only growing due to repression. All other reasons are natural - fatigue, winter, coronavirus. We can say that the protests are hibernating and the political winter in Belarus is likely to be relatively calm. But in the spring, important political events await us - an all-Belarusian assembly and a constitutional referendum. Each of them is quite capable of becoming a catalyst for a new wave of protest.
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