Belarusian elections: There are no pro-Russian candidates and none are expected
Applicants to get on the ballot for the 2020 Belarusian presidential election are just finishing collecting the signatures required to register as a candidate. The chances of collecting the required 100 thousand and receiving a candidate's certificate are good if half of the 13 characters currently participating in the race. But it is already clear that, no matter who wins these elections, pro-Russian politicians will be in the opposition.
The fact that Lukashenko is not a friend of Russia and an enemy of Belarusian politicians and public figures who advocate deepening integration and support the foreign policy of the Russian Federation has long been clear. There was a time when he positioned himself as Russia's main ally in the post-Soviet space. But at the same time, all pro-Russian structures independent of the authorities were carefully trampled down for decades - he did not tolerate competition.
Now he has ceased to be a friend even in words. The number of anti-Russian statements in his speeches has been off the charts recently. Not a day goes by without him making another offensive comment. His entourage recently agreed to the point that Russia is interfering in the internal affairs of Belarus. There is no doubt that in the very near future, following Hillary Clinton and Petro Poroshenko, people in Minsk will start talking about “Russian interference in the elections.” And this is in a country in which the entire opposition has been fully supported by the United States and its allies from the European Union for 30 years, which is a well-known fact, but for some reason does not bother anyone.
Belarus’s turn towards the West has been going on for a long time and the elections have only accelerated the process. To such an extent that I would not be surprised if Lukashenko’s withdrawal from the Union State is formalized even before the elections.
But among the other candidates, there are no “friends” for the “Russian World” supporters in Belarus. There was hope for Valery Tsepkalo, who spoke out in support of the Russian language, but then he turned on Greta Thunberg and began talking about the need to move all (!) “harmful” enterprises outside the city limits and create “reservations” for industry far from populated areas, closing nuclear power plants etc. He identified the IT sector as the main branch of the economy, which in Belarus flourishes only due to outsourcing and low taxes, forgetting that not every tractor driver can be retrained as a programmer. In general, it will do for hipsters. For others, not so much. And Tsepkalo’s rating, which was not bad at first, went down.
Lukashenko’s main rival now is Viktor Babariko, who headed the Belarusian subsidiary of Gazprombank for 20 years. Some radical nationalists react to this fact and call the former banker “a protégé of the Russian oligarchy.” But mentally Babariko is closer to them than to us. While still the head of Belgazprombank, for the money of investors, he published books by the Russophobe Alexievich in large editions in order to transfer them to libraries (which, however, refused such a gift), and supported other “nationally oriented” projects.
Babariko’s views on history are also revealing. He named the coronation of the Lithuanian king Mindaugas as the key dates in Belarusian history (the Belarusian lands were then part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania), the creation of the Belarusian People's Republic in 1918 (a virtual state proclaimed after the retreat of the Bolsheviks under the terms of the Brest Peace Treaty. It did not have sovereignty and did not control its territory , was not recognized by anyone, is now an icon of nationalists), as well as the declaration of independence in 1991 (this is understandable, although for many the collapse of the USSR was a tragedy). In general, a typical “litsvin”. A completely different historical and cultural identity.
The rest of the candidates are even worse. Mostly well-known “professional zmagars” from the liberal-nationalist opposition. By definition, nothing good can be expected from this public.
It turns out that no matter where you throw it, there’s a wedge everywhere. There will definitely not be a “dream president” in Belarus in the next 5 years. We will have to defend the right to our views, language and identity. If Lukashenko remains, “Belarusization” will continue, the conflict with Russia will deepen further, American emissaries will continue to fly to Minsk with alarming frequency and build another “bastion against Russian imperialism.” The witch hunt and search for the “hand of Moscow” will only intensify. In this case, everything will be decided by the ambitions and emotions of the first person, which are not always consistent with the opinion of the people, the interests of the state and even the laws of economics.
Babariko will be able to defeat him - he himself is a softer person and sees his role more as a managerial one. He himself is likely to focus on economics, without personally imposing language, symbolism or ideology on society. With him there will be more opportunities for legal political activity. But the numerous “zmagars”, aggressive and raised on Western grants with the connivance of Lukashenko, will have more of it.
It just won't happen in either case. There is no obvious choice, and now everyone in the pro-Russian camp makes it themselves.
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