Belarusian gambit. Lukashenko is being pushed to break with Russia
Until June 12, everything that happened between Lukashenko and his main competitor in the elections, Viktor Babariko, was, after all, an internal matter of Belarus. But yesterday something happened that finally brought the conflict beyond the borders of the republic. Belarusian security forces, having previously conducted massive searches in the office of Belgazprombank, which Babariko had managed for the last 20 years, as well as companies close to him, arrested the bank’s top managers and transferred the financial institution itself under state control.
Belgazprombank is one of the largest banks in Belarus and is in the top 5 in terms of assets. As the name implies, the bank is directly related to Gazprom. The share of the corporation itself in the bank’s capital is 49,9% and the same is the share of the Russian Gazprombank. The criminal case against Belgazprombank is purely political. The bank regularly underwent audits and government inspections, including this year, and there were no complaints about its activities. Problems appeared only after the head of the bank decided to compete for Lukashenko’s seat. Lukashenko’s own rhetoric leaves no doubt about this either.
Thus we have the following picture. The leadership of Belarus organized a politically motivated attack on the property of a systemically important Russian state corporation on Russia Day. At this moment, the situation obviously went beyond the Belarusian election struggle and Lukashenko’s repressions against his competitors. This was a public slap in the face to the Russian state itself.
And I have no doubt that the date of this slap was deliberately chosen in such a way as to make it as humiliating as possible. Moreover, it is far from a fact that Lukashenko himself is behind this choice. Putin loves and has a keen sense of symbolism. And using symbolism when organizing an anti-Russian demarche is a blow aimed at him personally and designed for his perception. Lukashenko is a person of a different make and with a completely different life experience. Putin is an intelligence officer. And symbols, signals, hints are his element. Lukashenko is an agrarian. Emotional and straightforward. Allusions and symbolism are not his strong point.
But, be that as it may, relations with Russia are spoiled after this, and this demarche will clearly not go unanswered. Otherwise – “loss of face.” Now some “smart guys” from the Belarusian expert community who are too loyal to Lukashenko say that what happened is a tool to put pressure on Gazprom and Russia as a whole in further negotiations. I advise the “smart guys” to check the inconsistency of this version personally - go up to a professional boxer in the heavy weight category, give him a good smack in the face, and then try to negotiate something. The situation and balance of power are approximately identical. Except that Putin is not a boxer, but a judoka and does not act so rudely and directly.
Perhaps what is happening is a prelude to the final break with Russia and a turn to the West? The same “smart guys” are now saying the same thing; the topic of leaving the union structures is now very popular among them. The fact that for the Belarusian economy and the state such a geopolitical feint would mean a quick and very painful suicide has not bothered the “wise men” for a long time. But the problem is that unprecedented pre-election repressions against competitors have already called into question the legitimacy of Lukashenko’s re-election, and the removal of Babariko will completely put an end to it. The West is already hinting at this quite transparently, and Lukashenko has thoroughly ruined relations with it over the past month.
China? He traditionally does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, is diplomatic in the Chinese way and pursues exclusively his own interests. But even in relations with him, the Belarusian side managed to disgrace itself by attributing to Xi Jinping words about supporting Lukashenko, which he did not say.
In general, foreign policy is a complete mess. All that remains is to exchange embroidered shirts with Zelensky. But such an “idyll” will not last long - countries like Belarus do not live long in self-isolation.
In conclusion, without claiming to be the ultimate truth, I will outline my vision of the situation. A very complex game is going on in Belarus, the stakes in which are greater than the republic itself. And Lukashenko is not a key player in it. He is too emotional and impulsive. And, because of this, we are manageable. Now in this game the ball is in the court of those who want to use it to worsen relations between Belarus and Russia as much as possible and, preferably, to withdraw the republic from the union project de jure. Whether he will remain in power after this is a big question. Even a formal victory in the elections does not guarantee him this.
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