Belarusian defector: Russia is cooking Lukashenko over low heat
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is afraid to use hard force against protesters not because he fears a reaction from the West, but because he fears losing ties with China and falling under Russian influence.
The Belarusian pro-Western anti-Russian political scientist Igor Tyshkevich, who moved to Kyiv, stated this in his YouTube channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The question is not the opinion of the European Union, but the consequences. Now the Belarusian authorities are trying to balance the interests of the United States, the EU and China. China is not interested in Belarus as part of Russia, not interested in Belarus, which has completely broken with Russia, or Belarus, which is under sanctions. If the country is closed, then Belarus may cease to be of interest to China. In this case, it falls under the influence of Russia. For now, such threats are virtual, but it all depends on what mechanisms are chosen,” the expert believes.
He believes that the stalemate in which the Belarusian president found himself in the current elections suits the Kremlin quite well, since it will allow him to further control Lukashenko through his associates.
“There have been no signals that Russia will play on Lukashenko’s side, nor signals that it will be neutral. Russia will slowly warm up interest, because the decline in Lukashenko’s legitimacy in the eyes of his own vertical is in Russia’s interests,” Tyshkevich said.
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