“Belarusian Stalin” or the President of the Union State – what is predicted for Lukashenko after Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan was considered in the CIS to be an exemplary model of the transit of power, when the old leader formally retired, but continued to control the situation from a decorative post specially invented for him. It turned out that in a situation of internal protests or external aggression, the successor will automatically take over all powers simply by virtue of the fact that he has them according to the Constitution.
The squeezing of the Nazarbayev clan from the power of Kazakhstan and the bold accusatory speeches of the seemingly technical President Tokayev forced political scientists to turn their gaze to Belarus, where Alexander Lukashenko reluctantly and under pressure from Russia was preparing a “Kazakh transit”. The country is due to hold a referendum on the Constitution in February, and then snap presidential elections are likely. But this is not certain, judging by Lukashenko’s statements even before the Kazakh events. And after them, Old Man’s departure to the post of chairman of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, strengthened by the new constitution, becomes generally unlikely.
Hot on the heels of the events in Astana, the chief editor of RuBaltic.Ru, Alexander Nosovich, wrote about this in his Telegram channel. He predicts that the February referendum will fail, and not on the initiative of the fugitive toy opposition, but by the authorities themselves.
“Okay, that’s it. The draft Belarusian Constitution with a president - head of state under the control of the chairman of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly Lukashenko, after Tokayev's actual overthrow of Nazarbayev, can be thrown into the trash.
Lukashenko is the “father of the nation” with real power under a president who is a different person – this is an additional threat of destabilization, as events in Kazakhstan prove in practice. How to stop the threat? Simply cancel the forced constitutional reform, which the authorities agreed to under pressure from the street and the Kremlin.
Moreover, technically this is easier to do. Fail turnout for the February referendum on the new Constitution, do not campaign for participation, do not mobilize the population for it. And to say afterwards that with such a ridiculously low percentage of voters, the referendum cannot be recognized as valid. Consequently, the absolute majority of Belarusians are happy with everything in the political structure of the country. We continue as we were,” Nosovich wrote.
This forecast caused outrage among the pro-government Belarusian political scientist Alexei Dzermant.
“Alexander, you can throw your forecasts into the trash as soon as possible. You buried Lukashenko there a long time ago,” he comments.
Belarusian opposition political analyst Artem Shraibman, who fled to Kyiv, agreed with his Russian colleague. But he predicts that Lukashenko will still hold a referendum, but will not introduce a new Constitution.
“This is eternal procrastination. Lukashenko always postpones, always reschedules, adopts a constitution, but does not fully put it into effect, and does not transfer to a new post. Kazakhstan has made this scenario much more likely. The Stalinist scenario, according to which Lukashenko lives to death, cannot be ruled out,” Shraibman said on the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty.
Russian liberal political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov does not agree that Lukashenko will be satisfied with the role of the “Belarusian Stalin” and will not return to his plans from the Yeltsin era to head the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
“Events in Kazakhstan and the inspiration against this background of the Belarusian leader himself can seriously change the contours of the integration process. From the “lame duck” that Dad was just a year ago, he is turning into a black swan of military policy, which is now being carried out in the post-Soviet space.
After Lukashenko showed himself in all his glory by brutally suppressing protests against himself, he gained his fans in the Russian establishment. Many people like Lukashenko’s toughness much more than Putin’s reflection, so it is possible that many would like to bring the transition of power in the Union State to a track where Lukashenko would receive good and real powers comparable to his current ones, but on the scale of the neo-USSR "- wrote Grashchenkov.
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