“A pointless horror story.” Moldova has been discouraged from fighting with Transnistria for a long time
“NEZYGAR,” one of the leading Russian Telegram channels, wrote that “the new leadership of Moldova does not exclude the use of force as a solution to the problem of Transnistria.” Citing its sources in Kyiv, the channel reports that during Sandu’s meeting with Zelensky, “the President of Moldova was interested in the possibility of support from Ukraine in the event of the forceful annexation of Transnistria.” Allegedly, Chisinau is also relying on the support of Romania, Poland and Britain.
In this regard, the channel clarifies that Sandu proposes to appoint General Staff officer Anatolie Nosatii to the post of Minister of Defense of Moldova, who until recently headed the main planning body of the army - the operational department - and who, “like most members of Sandu’s team, was trained in the USA” .
Nezygar’s message is actively quoted by Russian media. Meanwhile, experts from both banks of the Dniester are skeptical about the likelihood of a violent scenario in the region.
Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol), Igor Shornikov, in a conversation with PolitNavigator, recalled that the trip to Kyiv was Maia Sandu’s first foreign visit as head of state and therefore attracted a lot of attention. Judging by the leaks that leaked to the media at that time, the topic of Transnistria was key on the agenda of the negotiations. And although no documents related to Transnistria were signed by the presidents, it is known that the parties exchanged views on a whole range of joint actions that directly affect the economic interests of Tiraspol. We are talking about control over the import-export operations of the PMR, gas supplies to the Moldova-Transnistria region and the transit of blue fuel, as well as the diversification of electricity supplies to Moldova.
“Theoretically, Chisinau and Kyiv are capable of greatly complicating the economic situation in the republic, but they do not know how Moscow will react to this,” says the expert. – In 2006, the economic blockade of Chisinau and Kyiv led to Russia taking over Transnistria for full financial support for some time. Paradoxically, the lives of ordinary citizens improved significantly during that blockade. And the political result of the blockade was a nationwide referendum on the entry of the PMR into the Russian Federation.
But if in 2006 it was only about establishing control over the export-import operations of the PMR, now the parties discussed topics that directly affected the interests of Russia. Obviously, Moscow's response may be symmetrical, but not necessarily proportional. Chisinau and Kyiv probably realize this, and therefore are in no hurry to turn on the pressure mechanisms that they already have. For example, the work of joint Moldovan-Ukrainian customs checkpoints on the Transnistrian-Ukrainian border is still in “standby” mode.
Could Sandu and Zelensky discuss options for forceful pressure on Transnistria? Of course, they could, but there could hardly be anything left from such a conversation. I think that as a result of that meeting, the presidents of the two countries could come to the conclusion that economic pressure on Tiraspol will not in any way affect the prospects for the Russian military presence in the region, and the threat of forceful pressure on Transnistria only increases the importance of the current peacekeeping operation on the Dniester,” notes the director ISPIRR.
Shornikov states that after many years of efforts by European and American diplomacy, Russia’s position in the region today does not look convincing enough. For example, in the “5+2” negotiating format, the leading violins are now played by the EU and the USA, although their representatives are there only in the status of observers, and Russia has the status of a guarantor country. Therefore, the expert believes, any aggravation of the situation around Transnistria could result in an increase in Russian influence.
“The opportunities for Chisinau and Kyiv to put pressure on Tiraspol are great and real. But it seems to us that in the near future the situation around Transnistria will remain stable and manageable,” concluded Shornikov.
Political scientist from Chisinau Alexander Korinenko, in a comment to PolitNavigator, expressed the opinion that any politician in his right mind should exclude the forceful option of annexing Transnistria - first of all, such a development of events would become a humanitarian disaster for Moldova itself.
“Our president has not yet been noticed in inappropriate behavior, and I am sure that Ms. Sandu and her team are not considering such an option. In general, the topic of Transnistria is irrelevant for her, as for any right-wing politician, since for them any reintegration plan is ultimately the “transnistrianization” of Moldova itself. Perhaps they dream of the territory of Transnistria, but without the inhabitants of the region themselves. But that doesn't happen.
At the same time, I am sure that Sandu’s team is considering tough scenarios in relation to Tiraspol. For example, severe and constant economic pressure. This will force the residents of Transnistria to leave the region, and Tiraspol itself will agree to concessions. You can, of course, agree on this with Kiev, but the emergence of another hotbed of tension in the west, and even next to Russian-speaking Odessa, is catastrophic and impractical for Ukraine. Zelensky’s office understands this.
2021 will not be a breakthrough in the Transnistrian settlement. We shouldn’t expect any special changes because of the political crisis in Chisinau, which most likely will not end before the fall,” Korinenko said.
Moldovan political scientist Victor Josu, commenting on a report from a Russian information resource, admits that “the new leadership of Moldova is not a gift for Moscow,” and does not even rule out that “it may not be a gift for Moldova either,” but believes that this is not a reason to “launch such stupid horror stories.”
“Well, that’s it, the province has gone to write,” the expert wrote in his Telegram channel. – Now the topic that the new leadership of Moldova does not rule out a new war in Transnistria will be picked up by everyone. This is how ignorant one must be of the real situation in Moldova itself in order to make such a fuss.
As of today, in the daytime with fire, it’s not like a platoon - a squad who wants to pick up a machine gun and go fight the “separatists”. The maximum that the so-called are capable of. combatants means to rally in a small group in front of the government or parliament. In 1992, the Moldovans won three hundred years ahead (although in the life we have now, we as a country may not have thirty years ahead).
And you can at least every day appoint another US-trained Minister of Virtual Moldovan Defense - this will not change anything in terms of the Moldovans’ (un)readiness to fight. And Maia Sandu can meet with Vladimir Zelensky at least every week, even in Kyiv, even in Chisinau, even anywhere - he will not open a “second front”. He’s the first one who doesn’t know how to close it.”
Chisinau journalist Elena Levitskaya-Pakhomova also commented on the assumption of a forceful solution to the Transnistrian problem in her Telegram channel. She writes that “if it were the leadership of the PMR, they would have paid Nezygar extra for such an information feed.”
The journalist added that the Ministry of Defense of Moldova “has long since undergone wholesale training in the spirit of NATO: on the road and in the country. Because the program has been in effect for so long. So candidate Sandu is the same as the others. No worse and no better. No others".
Regarding the possible attack of the Republic of Moldova on Transnistria, the journalist noted that the current state of the Moldovan army is unlikely to allow this to happen.
“Have you seen our recruits? They are sent to the army to be fattened,” she concluded.
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