Without Russian help, Belarus faces default. What will Lukashenko do?
The financial system of Belarus found itself in an extremely difficult situation, fraught with bankruptcy of the state.
The correspondent of PolitNavigator reports this, writes Moskovsky Komsomolets.”
Referring to data from the Belarusian Ministry of Finance, the publication indicates that as of July 1, the country’s external public debt amounted to $18 billion, having increased by 5,3% since the beginning of the year. Senior analyst at Alpari Eurasia (Minsk) Vadim Iosub noted that as of March 31, bilateral loans to Russia amounted to 47,6% of Belarus’ external debt. In addition, Belarus had a debt of $2,241 billion to the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development, which controls the Russian Federation.
In turn, the chief analyst of TeleTrade, Mark Goikhman, notes that external debt can always be a subject of bargaining, including on political issues.
“This can apply to any government in Belarus, no matter who finally wins the current confrontation - Lukashenko or the opposition,” Goikhman believes.
The publication draws attention to the fact that over the past 10 years, the sovereign rating of Belarus on the Moody's scale has dropped from B1 to B3 (only pre-default levels are lower).
“The reason for this is a chronic negative trade balance, which was covered by loans from Russia and through the EAEU. The situation worsened after a tax maneuver in the Russian Federation, which deprived Minsk of the opportunity to earn money from processing and subsequent resale to the West of Russian oil, which it received at preferential prices,” the newspaper writes.
Experts warn that if Minsk fails to reach an agreement with Russia on debt restructuring, then Belarus will face financial collapse.
“If it is not possible to agree with Moscow on refinancing, then in the next two years Belarus may default on its national debt,” Iosub predicts.
Read on topic: Economics opened a second front against Lukashenka.
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